I'm at the end of my entertainment rope when it comes to film/television (MCU or otherwise). It's not that mediocre trash being popular is a new thing (there's a reason McDonalds does so well), but amongst the wreckage there were always diamonds in the rough. It's not even the absence of the latter that's so frustrating, but during the catastrophes of the past none were from IP I had a strong investment in, so there was a level of detachment when they failed. Watching fanboys doing mental gymnastics to enjoy crap like the Snyder Cut is as painful as it is frustrating. It's paradoxical that in an era where the genre entertainment I favour has become mainstream it's being systematically butchered such that it will sit on a shelf for a decade or more yet again (Conan, John Carter, Dungeons & Dragons, Judge Dredd, Lovecraft adaptations, etc, etc, etc). The remaining hope for fans of narrative is in video games, but that hangs by a thread (the colossal stupidity of The Last of Us Part II serving as the gold standard of failure--telling a coherent story is apparently beyond the abilities of today's writers, even if they are all very brave and important).
My predictions about Shang-Chi's box office have largely failed. The film has both caught up to Black Widow's total box office as well as surpassed it's international tally. There are a lot of caveats here (it has not, and will not, catch BW's gross including Disney+ sales), but in the soft post-pandemic film market I have to accept it is a 'success' and will get a sequel (although it is odd it hasn't been announced).
There is context to keep in mind, and not just for Shang-Chi, but for box office in general. Venom beat Shang-Chi's record opener (with 90 million), but facing stiff competition from other big movies it's not likely to catch-up to Shang-Chi's final tally (which opened against very weak opposition). That said, No Time to Die has already surpassed it worldwide. Here's the current relevant numbers (excluding China-exclusives); films still in early release in important markets are in italics:
1. F9: The Fast Saga 716k (173 domestic/543 worldwide)
2. Godzilla vs Kong 467k (100/367)
3. No Time to Die 456k (108/348)
4. Shang-Chi 415k (218/196)
5. Black Widow 379k (183/195)--504 with Disney+
8. Venom 2 288k (172/115)
15. The Suicide Squad 167k (55/111)
21. Dune 129k (0/129)--also released on HBO Max
The results look quite different domestically:
1. Shang-Chi 218
2. Black Widow 183
3. F9 173
4. Venom 172
8. No Time to Die 108
9. Godzilla vs Kong 100
16. The Suicide Squad 55--also released on HBO Max
This suggests is that worldwide box office is more impactful than domestic even without China. It makes me wonder if entertainment aimed at an American audience isn't translating as well outside of it and, if that's the case, why? Is it American politics? Casting? I don't think quality of writing is a factor, but it's difficult to pin down what the disconnect is. What I don't think we'll see is much change from Hollywood in the immediate future--not only are the films being made for the next few years done so without this information, but there's an inherent conservatism in approach from executives.
Due to the potential strike in Hollywood, Disney announced a series of MCU delays that break down like this:
Doctor Strange 2 - March to May
Thor 4 - May to July
Black Panther 2 - July to November
The Marvels - November to February/22
Ant-Man 3 - February/22 to July/22
An untitled Marvel film - moves up a week forward in November/23
Two other untitled Marvel films are removed from the schedule entirely (July/23 and October/23)
Guardians 3 (along with the upcoming Eternals and Spider-Man 3) are unchanged
Most of this is simply shifting films slightly down the schedule, with Guardians 3 remaining in place likely due to scheduling commitments for James Gunn etc. What's more interesting to me are the two removed projects and what that means--the MCU hasn't cancelled a film since Inhumans (when it was swapped with Marvel Entertainment for Eternals), but has it happened again? Could we be seeing repercussions from lower box office/weak TV returns? Could this be Bob Chapek imposing his will on Feige? Or is it purely the mechanics of the potential strike? Time will tell.
Just over a year ago Kris Tapley Tweeted out that Harry Styles would be in an MCU film; about six months later Cinemax Tweeted that it would be in The Eternals and 4chan said he'd play Eros; finally, in the plot leak months ago (taken from the initial cut of the film) Eros appears in the second end-credit scene. All have proven to be correct, as a Variety writer on Twitter confirmed it after seeing the film. There's a theory out there (eg) that this reveal is part of a marketing strategy to help boost interest because the film is not tracking well.
I'll repeat that Google Trends is just a tool and does not equate to box office success. What's interesting is the film's continuing minimal impact (the same goes for Shang-Chi which, despite success, simply hasn't generated discussion). This kind of thing--social impact--actually does matter to Marvel, because it indicates how much penetration an IP is getting with fans (and is likely reflected in merchandizing sales). I think that the MCU, due to the mixed reception of Phase Four, is becoming increasingly insular and that does not bode well for the future. We aren't at Game of Thrones levels of interest crashing, but as we know from that show it takes just a few tipping points before everything falls apart.
This article was written by Peter Levi
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