Various Thoughts: Loki, Black Widow, MCU Future, He-Man, and Amazon's Lord of the Rings

My break from MCU disappointment has been largely consumed by another playthrough of Witcher 3 and reading up on Norse sagas (my advice is to skip the intriguingly titled Valkyrie: The Women of the Viking World, as it's ideologically motivated without academic restraint; I haven't finished The Cambridge Introduction to the Old Norse-Icelandic Sagas, so can't offer thoughts), I still have my eye on what's happening in the MCU and many friends remain actively engaged.

Speaking of Loki, what are the reactions? The critical response has been neatly drawn along the usual lines--the outrager peddlers hate it (Andre at Midnight's Edge being the exception, although Andre hates everything else Marvel so it's hard to know what to do with that), and the sycophants love it. In terms of anecdotally, people I know have slotted it in the middle of the Disney+ shows (better than Falcon, which seems to be at the bottom of everyone's list, but not as good as WandaVision). This is surprising to me, as Tom Hiddleston is a bigger and (arguably) better actor than Elizabeth Olsen, and had a bigger costar (Owen Wilson) than she did. Loki should be at the top of everyone's list and its not. What does that mean for the future? Probably nothing at this point, as I discuss below.

The above represents two perspectives from Google Trends (keeping in mind, that's only one assessment tool, but I consider it an important one because it's a good way of judging the impact on the casual fanbase): one through all of 2021, and another from the start of Loki to present. I'm going to reiterate that Shang-Chi is a non-entity despite having started its marketing push, and that both WandaVision and Falcon and the Winter Soldier fell off people's radar very quickly. Loki will likely go that way as well (it's overall trend is very similar to WandaVision, but with slightly higher peaks), but it's too early to say.

Speaking of Black Widow, what a disaster it has been at the box office (when a hack like Scott Mendelson has to talk about it, it's beyond debate). As of this writing it's only hit 156 million and Disney has quietly stopped claiming massive success on the streaming side. The excuses for this performance are built-in: the pandemic, but it's a weak argument. This is the MCU, a franchise where unless you are Ant-Man, the expectation is that you should be pushing a billion (the five other films from 2018 onward all hit that mark)--even if you want to round it down conservatively, 700-800 million is where it ought to land, but it has no hope of getting anywhere near there. Friends have put the film into the mediocre category and that seems to reflect broader opinions. The massive drop off after opening weekend tells you all it needs too: no one felt compelled to go back for more and word of mouth didn't draw people either. Clearly, writing the script in eleven days did not help, although that was a second emergency re-write of a Jac Schaeffer (WandaVision showrunner) script that was so bad it delayed filming. You cannot sustain success with bad writing and that has been the story of Phase Four.

Do I think Marvel has learned anything from this? Absolutely not. The MCU is in the giddy aftermath of post-Phase Three success and it will take multiple punches to the face for reality to set in. I firmly believe Shang-Chi and The Eternals will disappoint in the same way Black Widow has and that marginal IP like Ms. Marvel will struggle to draw eyeballs even more than Falcon and the Winter Soldier. The problem is, all of Phase Four is planned, so poor decisions will extend far beyond the realization that it's not working. Can Kevin Feige turn things around in a couple of years? I want to say yes--I hope he can--but right now we are getting the material he likes most and the writing is terrible. Without restraint, Feige has become Zack Snyder, and we are all nose deep into Jason Momoa's soggy sweater wishing we could just walk away like Ben Affleck.

I wanted to briefly talk about He-Man, for reasons I'll get into momentarily. I wasn't a fan of the 1980s cartoon--as a kid I thought it was goofy--but I did like the comic from that era and I had the toys as a kid (I used them for WWE-style wrestling, since they looked like they were on a steady diet of steroids). When I heard Kevin Smith was going to write the show I assumed it would suck--when he's not writing about himself, Smith's output has been horrendous. That Smith landed the gig despite a string of failures is due to the last twenty years he's spent kissing the ass of everyone in Hollywood, but we know from old clips he's not a fan of the IP, so only took the project for the paycheque after his Marvel Entertainment show (Howard the Duck) was cancelled. Beyond that, the look of the show isn't for me (the animation--we also had yet another redheaded character deleted--the most forgivable prejudice apparently). I say all this to make it clear: this show wasn't something I had any interest in it. So why talk about it?

It's an IP I know very well and has a different feel from She-Ra (which never had a hint of adult tones, and therefore the fanbase isn't exactly the same). It's also being covered by everyone who covers the MCU, so I get to hear about it. Naturally, the screaming started before it came out and it's difficult to parse, because I suspect bad writing wouldn't inherently upset people given the original. The major complaint, as far as I can tell, is related to how Teela is written. For those who follow me, you all know I like faithful adaptations unless the original material isn't very good (ie)--the latter would apply here, but in something so inherently goofy with a predominantly older, male fanbase, it's an odd approach to take with the most prominent female character. In the grand scheme of things I don't really care--this was a Conan-ripoff designed to sell toys, after all--but I am intrigued when we get Ghostbusters-style fighting between fans and creators. The noise level isn't deafening yet, probably because the inherent interest isn't that strong, but I am curious where this will go. She-Ra only survived a much smaller level of criticism for two years--how will He-Man fair? True success is measured in how long Netflix continues to fund the show, so ignore all the noise and keep an eye on that. Whatever happens, I think in six months, a year, or a little longer, Kevin Smith will make one of his hilarious apologies and move on.

Let's end on a positive note. For those who follow me broadly, I've written a couple of articles on Amazon's Lord of the Rings show (eg) and overall the limited coverage of it has been negative (a lot of lazy videos from Nerdrotic and others). There are reasons to be concerned--good reasons (inexperienced showrunners, middling writers' room, lack of stars)--but it has created a slanted picture. Quite recently I came across TolkienTube, who has the exact kind of content I like (I highly recommend his channel). His videos have debunked some of the hysteria and provided context and information I hadn't seen elsewhere. While he has idiosyncratic desires and expectations (some of which I believe are unrealistic), he's been a breath of fresh air from all the negativity. I still have my doubts about the show, but some optimism has returned. There's nothing I'd like more than a good fantasy show on TV (Witcher's atrocious writing means no matter how hard Henry Cavill tries, I have no faith in the second season; there's never been any hope for Amazon's Wheel of Time), something lacking since season four of Game of Thrones (way back in 2014).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Various MCU Thoughts

This is a bit of a grab-all article touching on various things. I may put out a video covering this as well because, despite my disinterest in Phase Four at the moment, I'm still interested in what Marvel is doing.

The Irrelevance of Shang-Chi

This could still change (there's two months to go), but the fears many of us had when the film was announced have thus far proven true: despite two trailers, no one cares (the second trailer did worse than the first). Not only is there indifference, but we don't know if the film will appear in China (ostensibly a primary target). I went over the numbers on martial arts films a long time ago and they simply don't hit big at the box office (you can see me argue with James Simon on Small Screen about this). In a world where MMA fights happen all the time, there's no mystic about martial arts and the nostalgia market just isn't strong enough. The MCU brand is still powerful, so I'm not going to predict it will bomb yet, but the odds of it underperforming remain very strong.

Hype vs Reality

I mentioned last week that the performance of HBO's Lovecraft Country was an excellent example of the contrast between hype and reality. Positive media coverage of the adaptation was ubiquitous, as were the reviews. It reminded me of HBO's 2019 Watchmen--very much the same arc--but just like that case, where the rubber meets the road--financials--there's no second season for either. That's not how economics work--even if you believe Damon Lindelof (and I don't) that he wanted to stop Watchmen after the initial season, HBO would happily have replaced him if there was demand. Have no illusions, these shows failed. I don't mean necessarily in terms of art (while I doubt the quality, I've seen neither), but as commercial enterprises (and that's the only reason they were made). This is why I express skepticism when I hear excessive praise in the media--talk to me when the financials are out, then we can have a real conversation.

Bad Writing

I won't dwell on this too much, but I did want to make a general point. You can succeed with bad writing in popular entertainment--it happens all the time--but I don't think you can get away with it when your brand is built on a precedence of good writing. A vapid show like Bridgerton never pretends to be serious (nor do the original romance novels), so the writing is irrelevant, but once you start to take yourself seriously, you can't pull a Ralph Bohner--it creates ludonarrative dissonance. I think there's no awareness of this at Marvel, as I believe they see all their films as Bridgerton's and (thus) there's no requirement for good writing. This is manifest in the needlessly sloppy narratives that have been put on display on Disney+. The people I know who currently enjoy the MCU are ones who never took it that seriously--when this quality of writing happens in things they do take seriously, they express the same frustrations I do, so I think anecdotally and evidentially this is simply true.

The Scooper Wrap-up

I mentioned in my last video that I was thinking of updating my exploration of the scoopers, but as the change I wanted to make was very specific it doesn't require its own isolated content. When I talked about the 'Big Four' I had singled out Sutton for not indulging in the social media meltdowns we've seen from the other three. That's still true, largely because Sutton only uses Facebook (and even that is purely for advertisement), but I now know he has the same temperament. While he avoids public rages, he can't handle criticism. Sutton is an odd fellow in the space--a zero sum promoter. He plays the identity politics game in his official material and gives positive reviews to everything, but he's happy to appear on channels on the other side of the culture war if they are big enough (Midnight's Edge in particular). His comments on roundtables also suggest that his A+ for everything in his official material doesn't reflect his actual opinions. What I think this means is that exposure matters more to him than ideology, which suggests that his purported beliefs are simply for the purposes of self-promotion or protection (the latter is understandable when you look at what happened to Jeremy Conrad). Despite this, Sutton remains an interesting figure in the space, just one who is less distinctive than I originally thought.

Reminiscing about Small Screen

I was involved with Lauder's program for such a short time there's not much to reflect on. It wasn't a perfect show--I think the format could be improved--but I enjoyed the roundtable discussions. What's fascinating is how much it has changed over the last two months and is seemingly in decline. None of the Super Team Mega Force talent remains, such that it's just Edward and Clint Baker--both nice guys, but the pair are like a sandwich missing the filling. Losing out on Syl Abdul (whose channel is doing very well) hurts--I like Syl and think he has the talent to ride out the demise of the Snyder movement (which is what truly launched his channel). Losing Sutton from Small Screen also hurts, but not as much--Sutton has struggled finding a stable home on Youtube (I suspect he'd like to feature regularly on a big channel like Midnight's Edge, but Kamran Pasha--who better fits their ideology--and others occupy that space), and by himself he doesn't boost viewership meaningfully (look at the failed experiment on Lords of the Long Box). Perhaps Syl will be able to fill that void for him. As a mentioned a few months ago, Sutton was orienting his coverage more towards DC and Syl seems to be the primary reason for that (there's far less competition in the DC space than Marvel).

The Culture War

This isn't about whatever side you come down (if you have strong thoughts either way; and I realize it's not a true binary, but people tend to think of it that way), but about how the entertainment industry has picked one. Naturally, corporations like Disney have locked hands with the ruling class (including the CIA and US military, both of whom have put out unintentionally hilarious promotional material) and none of the exotics who oppose the idea in film do so with any awareness of the bigger picture (most are simply charlatans and clowns). I referenced this in my article about Amazon's Lord of the Rings series back in March, but to be reductive and explicit about it: the great thing about a war against -isms is that it never ends--just like the war on terror--it provides a constant excuse to change nothing in society while keeping the masses busy bickering with one another. For the last five years film and television has explicitly supported and propped up this narrative, even though it's fiscally punishing (the trite 'go woke, get broke' idiom has some truth to it). The goal isn't to lose money, as there's an underlying belief that with enough explosions etc the public will enjoy anything (Michael Bay and Bridgerton come to mind), and they aren't necessarily wrong except when it comes to genre adaptations. The problem is, when you put something out with a strong fanbase, you can't just shit out generic pap and get people to show up for it. Bad adaptations are, of course, nothing new and exec's have always pushed to take distinctive genre media and make it generic, so what's changed? Two things: 1) we know faithful adaptations work (Lord of the Rings and the Harry Potter films), so the old argument that you can't do them is false, 2) there's an extra dross of politics which disproportionately targets most of the core fanbase of these IP. Not surprisingly, using marketing to attack your fans and then including a watered down version of the same in the product isn't the smartest idea. Despite numerous failures with this approach (Charlie's Angels, Terminator: Dark Fate, Harley Quinn, Wonder Woman 1984, etc) the message hasn't sunk in because these are ideologues--they believe the way a fundamentalist believes, therefore the approach is never the problem, it's just -ist fans and they can be overcome. John Cusack gives us a great example of this kind of thinking: he believes Julian Assange is a Trump supporter, therefore it's a good thing for the US to extradite him in order to torture and kill him. When the class of people Cusack represents frame things this way, you can't expect rational discourse (it reminds me in a way of the thesis of the South Park film over 20 years ago, "Horrific, deplorable violence is okay, as long as no one says any dirty words").

I've discussed before that a corporation can do whatever it wants in an adaptation of a product--there's no ethical or moral obligation for it to produce something faithfully, just an economic incentive. That said, it's irritating how dishonest the whole ideological thrust is (as it doesn't address actual inequality, cf). That aside, on a creative level the race/gender swaps have no discernable meat to them--a black Heimdall is exactly the same as a white Heimdall, so what's the point? The only story beats that are ubiquitous within the trend is that women need to be stronger and smarter than their male counterparts, presumably as a vague critique of the patriarchy (apparently having women always be better is not a problem). There's no genuine exploration of race or gender in any of this (I used the word 'dross' above intentionally), and it's an oddly anti-humanist sentiment, but its real purpose is simply to maintain the status quo--don't question why the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, focus in on an -ism and fight fight fight.

The sad thing about this is everything gets reduced into a kind of binary--a with-me-or-against-me mentality (as one can read in Hate, Inc etc). You don't like a film with a female lead or a person of colour? You must be a racist. You like something with a white lead? You're also a racist. Etcetera etcetera.  It's dishonest and reductivist and enough to drive any rationalist insane. I don't think regular fans think about these things at all, but subconsciously they are aware that something is off.

What's positive is that this can't last. There's no intellectual or ethical underpinning to this nonsense--it's just marketing and propaganda. At some point, as franchises get nuked into oblivion, financial imperatives will force a shift. What's not clear is what that shift will be or how long it will take to happen--will theaters still be a significant element in entertainment? It's unclear. I bring all this up because the approach has infected the MCU to the point of ruining narrative and character such that, just like the Concordia, it will crash before any lessons are learned. I think there's no hope at all for anything currently in production in Phase Four and likely nothing in this Phase at all--can it be fixed? I'm doubtful, but one can hope.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)