Wednesday, February 16, 2022

MCU News & Notes


The Doctor Strange 2 trailer was solid if ephemeral (it's surprisingly low on Google Trends--that recent snapshot doesn't illustrate how far behind it hit versus other big IP); America Chavez was mostly hidden, which I suspect was due to most of her scenes being re-shot. Alarm bells were ringing for me when Wanda says how it doesn't seem fair that it's okay for Doctor Strange to break the rules, but not her. If this comment represents the view of the MCU, it's a failure to understand the criticism of WandaVision, where our heroine tortured hundreds of people for selfish reasons (she was sad) with no consequences or condemnation in the narrative (which does not compare at all to what Strange does in Spider-Man 3). I have a suspicion that the MCU is going to argue in the story that because the results of what Strange did are worse, he's worse than Wanda, whose torture was also unintentional. As reasoning goes this isn't very good, since Strange did what he did to save someone and faces resistance to do so, while Wanda's was purely selfish and is given approbation and forgiveness throughout (the hilarious Monica Rambeau faceplant). Let's hope I'm wrong and it's not as hamfisted as it appears (this is Phase Four however, and coherent story and character has largely been flushed down the toilet).

Beyond that, the trailer confirmed a couple of long-standing MCU rumours:
  1. The Savage Land (2019, May) - LotLB (via their original source) were the first to float the idea that I'm aware of (this scoop was involved with their fight with Murphy, cf; I'd speculated about it appearing a year earlier), which Sutton echoed months later--in both cases they said it would be used in the second X-Men film (Sutton claims we see the Savage Land in the trailer)--it's not exactly as predicted, since neither put it in Doctor Strange 2, but still of note; if we get Ka-Zar and Shanna, I expect at least one race swap and little to no comic accuracy in their portrayal (unless it's some modern iteration I'm unaware of, likely where Shanna has Ka-Zar's role), as that's been the Phase Four trend
  2. The Illuminati (2020, January) - Sutton correctly said the group would appear in the film; we also now know that Patrick Stewart was either: 1) lying to protect an NDA when he claimed he'd rejected Feige's offer to reappear as Professor X because Logan was such a good send-off of the character, or 2) subsequently changed his mind (I suspect the former, since with Picard he said 'no' until they paid him more and gave in to some demands to service his ego)
The major curiosity for Strange 2 is how much the cameos will boost interest (my prediction that Marvel would spoil cameos before release was confirmed by the trailer). Nostalgia is a powerful drug and if the film is at least average, that's enough to drag its box office towards what used to be the MCU norm. What I'm not expecting is a truly good film (ala the first Doctor Strange).


More Nielsen ratings:
Cobra Kai 1038 (#2, -52%)
Cheer 629
Witcher 624 (#8, -46%)
Stay Close 558
Boba Fett 467 (-12%)
Queer Eye 394
Emily in Paris 357
Archive 81 329
Ozark 324
Undercover 277

The crash for The Witcher continues (just 22% of the audience remains/returns), with none of the externals we saw after season one (strong book sales, increase in game popularity, etc); Netflix shows tend to burn out quickly, and its general arc is similar to Cobra Kai (albeit with a stronger opening and weaker second week). This won't hurt the approach to a third season, but the level of hype is going to suffer and I expect the prequel series to tank (I thought Ozark is a useful example--a show built from a fantastic first season with a poorly written second--but as it turns out, it's not). The lingering stench of Wheel of Time has finally fallen off the list, while the bumbling Vespa-fueled Star Wars effort continues to stumble (I have no idea what can save the brand at this point--presumably even more memberberries).


I haven't referenced Amazon's Lord of the Rings for quite some time, but since my optimistic post in August all the news for it has been bad and I've surrendered to the fact that it's going to be just as disappointing as the adaptations of The Witcher and The Wheel of Time (albeit with better visuals). Like those shows, it's being made for casuals and I have no idea if they will tune in or not (they did for Witcher, but not for Wheel of Time--early investment for bigger IPs might be the trend). All three of these fantasy shows were made by people with no prior experience or investment in the genre and it shows. I am enjoying the meme of people commenting on the teaser with a paraphrase of Tolkien's comment about evil's inability to create (via Frodo in Return of the King). Amazon has already made the Ghostbusters error of fighting with fans and once you go down that road you're just making it harder and harder to succeed.

Let's look at what possible reactions to the adaptation could mean (which, as I've said many times before, we will get multiple seasons of no matter how it's received--fantasy shows are so expensive to make they require multiple seasons):
  1. It's a smash hit - the trend of butchered adaptations will continue and we can expect another decade or so of terrible fantasy productions; none of this detracts from the source material or the Jackson films, but would likely mean the upcoming Warner Brothers anime will be similarly ridiculous
  2. It bombs - the best case scenario for adaptations in general--the IP was so expensive to acquire it will rattle Amazon Prime--that won't save the show and likely puts to bed any other Second Age adaptation for a long time (and such an adaptation would have to be different from Amazon's anyway); it could also signal more faithful fantasy adaptations throughout the industry
  3. Response is mixed - the most likely result and as such won't set a trend
What's funny is that all these recent fantasy shows were intended to achieve the success of Game of Thrones, but none have come remotely close to it (I'd compare Witcher season one to Stranger Things in terms of initial impact). In fact, they are so different from GoT I'm not sure how executives thought any of them would capture that market--the entertainment industry loves imitation, but this is the loosest sort. It makes me wonder if we'll see a souring of interest in adapting fantasy because of the cost.


Let's end on a positive note. As per usual the best things on a streaming service were made by someone else, and this is the case for The Legend of Vox Machina. The animated feature is based on the hit D&D show Critical Role (on Twitch and Youtube) and for someone casually aware of it I've enjoyed it thus far. The humour is what carries it, as the story has pacing issues, but I'm curious to see how it did with the normies and we don't have Nielsen numbers yet. It's far better than I expected, although that doesn't guarantee its second season will be good (we simply don't know--Critical Role has hired some uninspiring people to write their comics, ala Sam Maggs, and we can see modern tendencies creep in along the edges in the show itself).

This article was written by Peter Levi

Monday, February 7, 2022

Marvel News & Notes


I've talked about the reshoots going on for the MCU right now and one thing that's not been made clear is how much of it is due to poor testing and how much is a matter of riding the wave of memberberries from Spider-Man 3 (the official reason is the latter, incidentally). I think it's a mix of both, since the reworking of America Chavez (whose scenes are believed to have been almost completely re-shot, cf) has no obvious parallel to the Spidey blockbuster. On the other hand, the number of cameos (likely intended to be high even before Spidey's success) has possibly been increased. What I'm most interested in is what the MCU decides to do with Doctor Strange, since thus far the whole thrust of Phase Four is to subvert and diminish the older heroes to make space for the new (something comics have tried and failed to do numerous times). On the surface, Wanda would be the presumed person to supersede him, but her story in WandaVision was botched so badly I'm not sure what you can do with her. Perhaps an even more brave and amazing spellcaster will emerge to save the multiverse--time will tell. I'm also curious how the reaction to the absurd Loki will impact whatever was intended (since it was the most obvious lead-in to the film thematically)--it's simply not clear unless we get an Eternals-style leak.


Sutton says Tom Cruise will be playing an alt-version of Iron Man in the film, which is an old Daniel rumour from the fall of 2020, and a pretty big 'win' for him if true.


The obvious save for the MCU--and not one we'll get, but what would save them from themselves--is that the entirety of Phase Four occurs in the multiverse and can be waved away in a better written Phase Five. This will never happen, because Kevin Feige and his executives would have to admit making mistakes (look at DC's inability to do the same, or Star Wars, or Star Trek, etc), but for fans this is one way out of this disaster.


I have no idea what audience Marvel thinks will show up for an Agatha Harkness show. At least Echo, who is equally uninteresting, can be carried by Daredevil (albeit, if it's done Hawkeye-style, that won't work--and Kingpin has already been ruined, so I haven idea which Daredevil villain she'll bravely defeat). While it may be too far along, Bob Chapek can still save us from Agatha, but there's no rescuing us from Echo.


I'm shocked that Sony cast Dakota Johnson as Madame Web. This project has been floating around for awhile, and given that Sony announces a lot of projects that don't happen, this one always had a better chance of happening because it was backed by Palak Patel, who seems to be the one actually in charge of Marvel Sony (he's behind both Venom films as well as Morbius). In 2019 it was said that Madame Web would spinoff from Morbius and writers were hired at that time. Both C. J. Clarkson and Roberto Orci are rumoured to have been hired for the project (both were hired for something for Marvel Sony), although the latter would run against Hollywood's current passion for having female directors for female-lead films. That background aside, I'm shocked the character hasn't been race-swapped and/or been an actress who doesn't conform to the usual beauty standards (MCU-style). The hiring smacks of Tom Rothman, who believes in stars (or at least names) and wants them to front his films. Johnson's hiring doesn't guarantee quality (the odds are that the film--if it happens--won't be anything to write home about), but I remain surprised how counter programming it is to the current norm.



Nielsen Ratings
Witcher 2734 (+20%; #1)
Emily in Paris 938 (#2)
Hawkeye 938 (+39%; #3)
Wheel of Time 638 (+27%; #7)
Lost in Space 490
Great British Baking Show 256
Jurassic World Camp Cretaceous 211
Marvel's Daredevil 195
Jim Gaffigan: Comedy Monster 186
Money Heist 183

Cobra Kai 2423 (December 31st; #1)
Witcher 1827 (-34%; #4)
Emily in Paris 1110 (+16%; #5)
Wheel of Time 630 (-1%; #9)
Hawkeye 539 (-43%)
Queer Eye 466
Lost in Space 452
Book of Boba Fett 389 (December 29th)
Stay Close 349
Great British Baking Show 338

Cobra Kai 2153 (#1)
Witcher 1105 (#3)
Stay Close 988
Queer Eye 723
Book of Boba Fett 563 (#10)
Emily in Paris 553
Ozark 301
Wheel of Time 300
Lost in Space 291
Great British Baking Show 254

I think we can hitch the brief bump in Wheel of Time viewing to curious Witcher watchers hoping for more of the same (and, indeed, for bad writing that's exactly what they got--the Amazon show has lingered like a bad smell). The Witcher's numbers are plummeting, albeit less than half its audience is still enough to remain in the top-three. I think interest in the prequel will give the best indication of how invested casuals remain, as the hardcore fans have given up. How do we know the second season hasn't done as well? Besides the precipitous drop in viewing, we have indirect evidence for it: no hit song, no massive increase in playing the game on Steam, no big jump in streaming numbers, and no big increase in game or book sales. As for the bump for Hawkeye, it seems to be MCU fans (buoyed by Spider-Man 3, echoing what happened briefly to Daredevil) checking it out before it bottomed off the chart entirely. In terms of genre, The Book of Boba Fett landed like a wet fart, although Star Wars fans are so desperate for something to be good there's room for it to be a 'success' on the small scale of The Mandalorean.


About two years ago I thought the outrage YT sphere ('The Fandom Menace', which has remodeled itself as 'The Fellowship of the Fans') was in trouble because their cash cows, Star Wars and Star Trek, were failing and a declining audience would stimmy growth. This is egg on my face, because while those IP continue to decline, poor management and writing has spread to other genre IP, thus breathing more life into them. In honour of my erroneous prediction, let's look at how this bonanza has rewarded the YTers mentioned then:
  • Mr. H Reviews 241k->289k (+48k)
  • Nerdrodic 234k->400k (+166k)
  • Geeks + Gamers 224k->324k (+100k)
  • Midnight's Edge 168k->208k (+40k)
  • Overlord DVD 151k->273k (+122k)
The two least effected channels were the two least devoted to the content trap (Mr. H and Midnight's Edge). The 'let's get/stay angry' channels have done far better while diversifying their content. I think Gary (Nerdrodic) has pulled ahead because he's more savvy in picking his guests (people like Chrissie Mayr, MauLer, etc). Midnight's Edge continues to be the most 'serious' channel, but their odd panels don't help views in the same way and they seem to have been frozen out by Nerdrotic--whether this is related to the drama last year I don't know. For some who read my content this is all trivial, but I find popular tastes interesting and there's no denying these creators are popular, beginning to approach the gaudy numbers of corporate friendly Emergency Awesome. In terms of news only Midnight's Edge and (to a much lesser extent) Overlord DVD break stories, with the rest being commentary channels, meaning that for general audiences it's how news is discussed more than the news itself that matters.

This article was written by Peter Levi