Marvel Sony: What's Going On?

I've never exclusively talked about Sony's Marvel operation, in large part because I hoped it would have little to no impact on the MCU (outside Amy Pascal's unfortunate influence on Spider-Man). However, I think it's worth contextualizing what's happening and what we know--summing up the news and considering what it means. I should point out that I'm not a big Spider-Man fan--the X-Men were my entry point into comics--so while I read and enjoyed a small number of comics about the character, my attachment to him isn't strong.

Background for the Agreement

2014

November - In response to Sony's The Interview (which satirized North Korea's Kim Jong-un), the North Korean government hacked the corporation, causing chaos at the company and pushing the film into digital release. Among the many things that came from this (cf), were that Marvel and Sony had begun negotiating for a sharing agreement over  Spider-Man (c.October); also released were emails that included racist content from Amy Pascal, resulting in her eventual resignation

2015

February - Sony and Marvel announce their sharing agreement

February - Tom Rothman, ousted from Fox in 2012, is installed as chairman of Sony Pictures; Rothman is best known for refusing to make Ryan Reynolds' Deadpool and micromanaging the Fox X-Men films to death

2019

August - Negotiations for a renewal of that deal broke down, with Sony trying very hard to blame Disney for this to no avail (cf)

September - After a stock dive mixed with withering criticism and ridicule, Sony agreed to a short-term renewal of the deal (cf) under the terms Disney originally offered

2021

April - Sony announces a 4-year US streaming distribution deal with Netflix for some of its material, as well as a requirement for Netflix to fund a certain number of Sony titles; this augmented a deal that was already in place for Sony animation

April - Sony announces a 4-year US streaming distribution deal with Disney+, with a specific emphasis that the Spider-Man films will be housed there

Sony Marvel Projects (excluding Spider-Man; arranged chronologically)

2014

• Sony hacks revealed plans to produce an animated feature from Phil Lord and Christopher Miller; this was released as planned in 2018 as Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse; despite lackluster box office (375.5 million), the film received critical praise and a sequel is coming (see below)

2016

• March - Venom (in Sony's plans since at least 2007) was given the greenlight and hit theaters in October, 2018, performing admirably (856.1 million) despite a critical drubbing

2017

• March - A female-lead Sony film that was cancelled in 2015 (in light of The Amazing Spider-Man 2 failing and the deal with Marvel) was revived; Christopher Yost (Thor 2 and 3) was brought in to re-write the script for what was now Silver & Black (for Silver Sable and Black Cat); director Gina Prince-Bythewood signed on in May and filming was expected later that year; Gina started working on the script and a release date was set (February 8, 2019); in February, 2018, Gina was not happy with the state of the script, causing an indefinite delay and she moved on to other projects; Sony cancelled the film in August, aiming for two solo films (one for each character) that Gina would produce; by January those movie plans were gone and it became a Silver & Black TV series, but we've heard nothing official since; in October, 2018, Murphy (then at That Hashtag Show) reported that the film had been cancelled at Feige's behest since it would have included Norman Osborn [This is the only unrealized project that's had a release date attached; since then it's been a confused story of what will or won't happen with the two characters; Mikey Sutton claims Black Cat is slated for Tom Holland's Spider-Man 4 (cf)]
• June - Kraven the Hunter was included as a project Sony would like to pursue on film; in August the following year Richard Wenk was hired to write it; two years later, J. C. Chandor was hired to direct and Art Marcum and Matt Holloway to rewrite the script [We've heard nothing since and many believe the character will appear in Spider-Man: No Way Home]
• June - Mysterio was the other film being considered in the THR article above, but nothing more was said and given that the character appeared in Far From Home (a decision made no more than a month or two after this idea was floated) it seems dead [There's theoretically nothing preventing Sony from using the character in their own IP, but provisions in their agreement with Marvel may impact that possibility]

2018

• August-ish - a Venom sequel was envisioned with pre-production beginning in September, 2019, and the film set for release two years later
• August-ish - an Into the Spider-Verse sequel was envisioned and has a release date of October, 2022
• August - Nightwatch was one of three films announced as being in development; Ed Ricourt wrote an initial script before it was passed on to former Luke Cage showrunner Cheo Hodari Cokier with Spike Lee considering directing; by October Lee had passed on it and we've heard nothing since [Another IP that seems more or less dead; it's unclear why Lee walked away from the project, although as with Silk below, finding investors was likely difficult]
• August - Silk was announced as a film, but no talent was hired and the IP was shifted to an animated project; by December that idea was also dead and she became part of an animated female-team that hasn't materialized (a writer, Bek Smith, was signed); in September of 2020, it was being pitched as a TV-series for Amazon, then this March The Illuminerdi (Nebens, ergo Daniel, ergo presumably Production Weekly) claimed Sang Kyu Kim as the showrunner--there's been no confirmation of this [The constant changes suggest underlying funding problems for the obscure IP, but TV or animation is definitely the right platform]
• August - Jackpot was the final film announced at the time and soon after Marc Guggenheim was hired to write the script (something not made public until May, 2020); no further talent has been attached [Just like Silk above, this does not seem like a film-worthy character]
• Pre-November - A script for Morbius is completed, with production beginning in September and the film set to release in January, 2022
• December - Amy Pascal said Sinister Six, cancelled in 2015 (the project beginning in 2013), would be back 'on' if director Drew Goddard wanted to do it; Goddard signed a four deal with Fox that March and we've heard nothing since [It seems like Goddard has no interest, which presumably means this iteration of the project is dead--particularly given how many members of the group have or are about to appear in the MCU films]

2019

• September - Madame Web was announced with writers Matt Sazama and Burk Shapeless attached to write; in May it was reported that C. J. Clarkson (of the unaired Game of Thrones prequel) had been hired to develop Sony's first female-lead film, which is believed to be Madame Web [Until it has a release date and talent signed, I consider the prospect of this iffy; just like most of the projects above, getting anyone excited for this is a major challenge]
• October - Spider-Woman (Jessica Drew) was scooped by Sutton when he put her on an R&D list, with claims of her arrival coming from elsewhere in February (Daniel claims work had begun two months beforehand); the IP was eventually confirmed in August, with Olivia Wilde attached to direct and Katie Silberman signed to write (keeping in mind Sony hasn't officially said that it's Spider-Woman or Jessica Drew)--it's worth noting that Wilde has two other films on her slate and its not clear when this one will actually gear up into production [Again we have no date, so in terms of investment by Sony this remains as ephemeral as most projects on this list]

2020

• March - The Wrap scooped that Roberto Orci was hired to write an untitled Sony Marvel film; this might be one of the projects above, but we have no idea as there has been no news since [Given how Sony operates, this would be for a male-lead film, but otherwise we have nothing to speculate with]
• March - The Illuminerdi (via Daniel, who echoed it, presumably via Production Weekly) that Solo and Man-Wolf were in early stages of development; there has been no word about either since [Given the lack of confirming information associated with this, either it never happened or the projects have been scrapped]
• September - Fandom Wire claimed a Spider-Girl project was in the works, but we've had no news since [Given the lack of confirming information associated with this, either it never happened or the project has been scrapped]

The Sony Scorecard

Even ignoring the unconfirmed reports, this is fifteen projects--it looks ambitious, even audacious, but there are clear signs that Rothman isn't willing to push this agenda too far. Since arriving, only a third of these projects have gone beyond the point of a writer or (more rarely) director being signed, with four of the five produced films having been conceived under the previous regime (Pascal). This means the money spent on all these announced projects is minimal--no commitment, low risk. It appears the strategy is a mix of salving the enormous egos of his colleagues (Arad, Pascal, etc), putting on a front of independence (even though actual independence blew-up in his face in 2019), and attempting to drum-up investment--any takers for Silk? No? What about Jackpot? No? Hey, we've got Madame Web! Anyone? It's basically throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks.

The films that have actually been produced have leaned on stars--Tom Hardy and Jared Leto--a common approach from Rothman to mitigate risk. Most of the IP that Sony owns is far better off in animation or on TV, so for those preparing to line up for Man-Wolf in a couple of years, I wouldn't hold your breath. I believe the future of Marvel films for Sony depends heavily on how Morbius performs (I don't think a successful Venom sequel matters)--the character didn't have his own comic until after the film's announcement and that was cancelled after five issues despite plans for at least eight. Outside of Venom, Miles Morales, and Spider-Woman, nothing Sony owns has ever been viable (keeping in mind that cache itself is not enough to guarantee success). Both Marvel and DC are rushing to get all the "firsts" (female-lead, black-lead, etc), so Sony can't even push that button to generate interest.

The most popular theory regarding the Sony-Marvel situation is either that in a new, not yet announced deal, Feige will have even more creative control over Sony IP. This is usually followed by the idea that in the not too distant future Disney will buy Sony Pictures straight-up and get the rights returned that way (eg Sutton and a Redditor in October, 2019). I'm dubious of the latter, since if Sony Pictures is sold to anyone the rights are returned, so it's cheaper for Disney to have someone else buy it and have them defaulted. Regardless, for now we are officially at sea. We know Spider-Man 3 will integrate the prior Sony versions of the character--along with other characters from those films--channeled via the multiverse, but not what it means long term for either Marvel or Sony. Whatever happens, let's hope the film standards remain high after the sloppy writing we've seen on Disney+.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)