Conrad has proclaimed that Nova will appear in Phase Five, which is a bit like saying water is wet because rumours about Nova are a dime a dozen. The last we had was from Sutton in September, where he said he'd debut in Captain Marvel 2 (an idea Conrad repeats without attribution). Prior to that there was TMSM's rumour in July, LotLB's in June, and 4chan's in May. We know the character has been cut from three other MCU films already, so predicting that he's coming is a safe bet.
I mentioned last October that Marvel's decision to make The Eternals seemed in direct response to DC making New Gods (the MCU did something similar by turning Captain America 3 into Civil War as a response to Batman v Superman). The two properties are very similar (both created by Jack Kirby with the same basic framework). DC put Ava DuVernay at the helm, whose only other major film was A Wrinkle in Time (which bombed with a paltry 132 million, losing money for Disney). There's no indication that DuVernay can handle this kind of project, but one thing she will do is have very diverse casting. I suspect it's this casting approach which lead Marvel to do the same thing with The Eternals (it has far more race-swapping than is typical for the MCU). In effect, the MCU is going to make her movie before she does (New Gods lacks a release date, while The Eternals will hit screens November 6, 2020). The MCU-film will undercut DC's and make it seem like the imitator when (if?) it comes out.
I'm a little sad that Morgan le Fay is being wasted on Cloak & Dagger/Runaways. While never a significant character in Marvel, she has an interesting past in Arthurian mythology and a connection with the MCU Black Knight--she'd also make sense for Doctor Strange. Alas, she's been thrown away in the Jeph Loeb ghetto (but see below).
Sutton's prior claim of Marvel Entertainment being just fine is being questioned by Conrad, who puts his faith in the Variety article from last week (he's actually copying the exact same post from GWW, although in typical fashion doesn't cite them). Both he and GWW claim ME is going to be subsumed into Marvel Studios and that the process is happening behind the scenes. There's good reason to question whether either has sources behind the scenes (both passionately hate LotLB, which seems to have carried over to Sutton). What do I think? As I mentioned when the Variety article landed: it would make sense to eliminate the two different Marvels, but it's difficult to imagine that happening so long as Ike Perlmutter has a say. What's funny about this is that if Variety is correct, LotLB will be right that Marvel TV is going to become canon, but for the wrong reasons.
We've had four 4chan posts that did the circuit: the first purports to be a breakdown of Black Widow:
- Following CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR, Natasha Romanoff (Scarlett Johansson) is lured back to Budapest and reunites with her “sister” Yelena Belova (Florence Pugh). The Red Room Program created by Natasha’s surrogate father, General Ivan Petrovich (Ray Winstone), trained them both to become Black Widows.
- The Red Room is now led by Melina Vostokoff (Rachel Weisz), another operative who is abducting young woman to turn them into a new generation of Black Widows. Natasha and Yelena set out to stop her, aided by Natasha’s old lover Rick Mason (O-T Fagbenle), a fixer for international spies who previously worked for SHIELD.
- Natasha and Yelena are pursued by Taskmaster, a mercenary affiliated with Vostokoff, who is capable of mimicking his opponents’ fighting patterns. To face him, Natasha and Yelena recruit their “brother” Alexei Shostakov (David Harbour), a boisterous, drunken supersoldier originally meant to be the Red Guardian, the Russian counterpart to Captain America.
- Action scenes include Natasha and Yelena fighting in a rundown apartment; Natasha and Yelena fleeing on a motorcycle while Taskmaster chases them in an armored tank; Natasha and Yelena breaking Alexei out of a gulag; and Natasha infiltrating the Red Room headquarters and fighting Vostokoff in a laboratory.
- Flashbacks chronicle Natasha's childhood, training, escape and eventual recruitment by SHIELD.
- Cameos include William Hurt as Secretary Thaddeus Ross and Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark, in a deleted scene [from Civil War] where he urges Natasha to run. Jeremy Renner is also rumored to appear as Hawkeye.
- Suits include the standard suit, a white stealth suit for snowy environment and a reinforced combat suit.
- The main plot twist is that Mason is Taskmaster.
- Movie ends with Natasha reconnecting with Steve Rogers and Sam Wilson.
- Movie sets up Yelena as the new Black Widow in the MCU. She is more morally ambiguous than Natasha, setting up a new dynamic.
The second post is a purported breakdown of The Eternals:
- The Eternals are a group of superpowered immortal alien warriors created by the cosmic engineers known as "Celestials" and sent to Earth to protect humankind from the Deviants, monstrous creatures also created by the Celestials that have gone rogue.
- The Eternals arrived on Earth in ancient times and lived among humans throughout the centuries, always keeping their true nature a secret.
- Sersi (Gemma Chan) is the Eternals’ spy and has psychic powers. Her mission is to protect their secret, but she enjoys living among humans and wishes her family could reveal their existence to the world.
- Dane Whitman (Kit Harington) is an archaeologist who learns about the Eternals. Sersi is sent to erase his memories, but they instead fall in love, leaving Sersi divided between Whitman and her family.
- Ajak (Salma Hayek) is the leader of the Eternals and has healing powers. She regards the Eternals as her family, particularly because they are not allowed to have children of their own.
- Ikaris (Richard Madden) is the mightiest of the Eternals and can manipulate cosmic energy. He is loyal and protective of his family, and fiercely devoted to their mission.
- Thena (Angelina Jolie) is deadliest of the Eternals and has superhuman reflexes. She is brash, rebellious and prone to breaking the rules, and carries a great secret.
- Gilgamesh (Don Lee) is the strongest of the Eternals and has superhuman strength and endurance. He is sensitive and humorous despite his massive size, and cares deeply about the others.
- Makkari (Lauren Ridloff) is the Eternals’ scout and has superhuman speed. Her function is to travel the world storing knowledge about the humans and the planet. She is deaf-mute and communicates through sign language.
- Kingo (Kumail Nanjiani) is the Eternals’ wisecracking, fun-loving fighter. While the others have chosen to lead unassuming lives on Earth, Kingo has used his abilities to become a world famous Bollywood movie star.
- Phastos (Bryan Tyree Henry) is the Eternals’ inventor. He is the most rational of the group and was once very optimistic, but has since lost his faith in humanity. He is gay.
- Sprite (Lia McHugh) is the Eternals’ storyteller and can create illusions. Despite being permanently trapped in the body of a child, she maintains an upbeat demeanor.
- Druig (Barry Keoghan) is the most dangerous of the Eternals and can control people’s minds, particularly their fears. Unlike the others, he despises humans and has his own plans.
- The movie will span thousands of years and explore how the Eternals influenced the history of the MCU before arriving in modern times, when Dane Whitman discovers the “Tomb of the Space Gods”, which is capable of summoning the Celestials to Earth to pass judgment on humankind.
- The Eternals and the Deviants battle for control of the Tomb of the Space Gods, with Whitman caught in the crossfire. Unbeknownst to the Eternals, Druig is manipulating both sides to advance his own agenda.
This is a plausible plot and if it's accurate we can only hope Marvel has improved their romance writing, as it's difficult to express how weak it can be as a plot device. This was followed by a second Eternals plot description:
- The Eternals were created by the Celestials to defend humankind from the Deviants and have lived among humans in secret throughout the centuries.
- The Eternals are a family of immortals and have been forbidden by the Celestials to have relationships with humans.
- The Eternals are not allowed to interfere with humanity's fate outside of keeping the Deviants at bay, hence why they didn't publically help during crises like Loki's invasion and Thanos' snap.
- Ajak (Salma Hayek) is the leader and matriarch who has healing powers.
- Sersi (Gemma Chan) is an adventurous spy with psychic powers who loves humans and wants to integrate both races.
- Thena (Angelina Jolie) is a rebellious warrior with super-reflexes who has a secret.
- Ikaris (Richard Madden) is a dutiful soldier who manipulates cosmic energy.
- Makkari (Lauren Ridloff) is a mute scout with superspeed.
- Kingo (Kumail Nanjiani) is a wisecracking fighter whose idea of keeping a low profile is becoming as a Bollywood star.
- Phastos (Bryan Tyree Henry) is a homosexual inventor disillusioned with humanity.
- Sprite (Lia McHugh) is a cheerful storyteller who can project illusions.
- Gilgamesh (Don Lee) is a gentle giant with super-strength and endurance.
- Druig (Barry Kheogan) is a treacherous psychic who hates humans and feels the Celestials dealt them a shitty hand making them humanity's caretakers.
- Dane Whitman (Kit Harington) is a human archaeologist who discovers the “Tomb of the Gods”. Sersi is sent to erase his memories, but they end up falling in love.
- The Eternals and the Deviants begin fighting for the Tomb of the Gods, which holds the power of the Celestials, while Druig manipulates both sides to advance his own agenda.
- Movie spans thousand of years and explores the Eternals' influences across History in places like Babylon and Camelot.
- Taskmaster is being played by Viggo Mortensen. Ray Winstone plays Black Widow’s Father in flashbacks. [The Winstone casting matches another 4chan post from about a month ago; the only Mortensen casting news is LotLB's repeated assertion that he'll play a very old Magneto--both roles seem implausible for the 60-year old actor]
- Eternals features young Odin played by Ioan Gruffudd. Brian Tyree Henry’s Phastos is gay. Thanos and Ego have brief appearances. [This is all plausible]
- Jamie Chung and Harry Shum Jr are cast as Leiko Wu and Moving Shadow In Shang-Chi. Sam Rockwell returns as Justin Hammer. [Plausible]
- Doctor Strange In The Multiverse of Madness introduces Clea and Brother Voodoo. Marvel wants Keanu [Reeves] for the role of Nightmare, while Scott Derrickson wants Lakeith Stanfield for the role of Brother Voodoo. [The character scoops go back to December and Roger Wardell]
- Spider-Man 3 wont have an Spidey-Avenger Team up. Kraven is the main villain. Jon Watts wants Greg Kinnear and Maya Hawke for roles, most likely Norman Osborn and Gwen Stacy. [I very much doubt all of this--I don't think Sony would let Marvel use Kraven when they theoretically have a solo film of their own coming out, nor do I think Marvel would introduce a new love interest for Peter Parker when he already has one (no matter how bland I find Michelle)]
- Gorr The God Butcher is the main villain in Thor: Love and Thunder, played by Ryan Gosling. Jamie Alexander returns as Sif. [I'm dubious of the former, but the latter is possible]
- Blade is set for February 2022. Antoine Fuqua will direct. Werewolf by Night is the main villain. Larry The Cable Guy is campaigning to play Abraham Whistler. [The date is possible; we've had two rumours about Werewolf: LotLB claimed he'll appear on Hulu, while a month later GWW said Disney+]
Most of this comes across as fan casting and I believe it's likely that the entire post is fan speculation.
Mods on the main Marvel Reddit board decided to do a deep dive on WGTC's accuracy this year (over 240 items). Because of the timeframe and big gap in Marvel IP between Far From Home and the upcoming Black Widow, much of their content can't be judged and I didn't agree with all the assessments, but after talking to them they said they'll make some changes (in some cases they are far too kind, in others far too harsh--they had Spider-Man appearing in Venom as false when as far as I can tell that's true). WGTC is low-hanging fruit--despite being quite popular, it's little regarded, making it an easy target. What I want is people like Conrad, GWW, and Daniel RPK held to the fire and it will be interesting to see if they do.
Back to WGTC, I've combed through that entire list and made my own adjustments. In my estimation the only correct scoops they have are the kind of things available through early screenings (specifically, that Hulk would survive Endgame and the post-credit scenes of Far From Home and Endgame)--that's it. The site has been wrong a lot, steals material (ala Conrad), and puts out a lot of clickbait. The deep dive completely debunks them as having inside sources
Incidentally, WGTC seems to be the source of GWW's recent Silver Surfer scoop, as they had that story back in March (which debunks the idea since, legally, Marvel couldn't work on Fox IP until they owned it).
More from LotLB (and here):
- Sutton claims Cloak & Dagger will move to Hulu [Which makes sense if the show is renewed]
- Sleepwalker will be on Hulu
- MCU is considering a live action version of Peggy Carter as Captain America (I presume instead of the animated version of her What If? episode)
- Sutton says Disney wants to buy the Spider-Man IP for 4-5 billion (Tim said another person reached out to him and said they'd heard 3 billion)
- Feige wants the Sinister Six to appear in Spider-Man 4
- Dakota North, Topaz, and another IP are the options for an ABC Marvel show (the former repeats their old rumour)
- Tim said Sutton, just like his other source ("The Black Knight") is also part of the inner circle of speculators who get early scoops on IP in development
I've never gone over modern comicbook sales and a sense of relative success. It's a very niche hobby with a (relatively) small audience--in terms of numbers I'm leaning on Comichron (which includes both hard copy and digital sales data from ICV2--as of 2017 digital sales accounted for about 9% of total sales).
There are some basic tenants to keep in mind: #1 issues of any comic will sell much higher than the rest of the run and typically they occupy most of the top-ten slots in any given month. A high selling book will be in the 200-250k area, with a hard drop off soon after such that it's rare for the top-ten to all be in triple digits. Marvel and DC dominate sales, with Marvel virtually always earning more (in part due to higher prices) and usually having larger market share. Finally, it's important to know that the comic sales are not sales in the usual sense--they are the orders the companies receive from shops, not actual sales at the register. With that preamble out of the way, let's look at some samples specifically from a Marvel point of view. I picked two random times of year (August and February) and back track over the last couple of years to gain perspective. I've included the overall position vs all comics, rounding sales to the nearest thousand and including the writer; I've crossed out titles that are now cancelled and to make figures visually 'pop' I've colour-coded them by scale (200k+ in yellow, 100-199k in purple, 51-99k in green, 40-49k in blue, and the rest in red):
August, 2019 Top-20 Marvel Titles (excluding Star Wars)
1. Absolute Carnage #1 Donny Cates 233k
2. Marvel Comics #1000 Carl Burgos/Al Ewing 206k
4. House of X #3 Jonathan Hickman 109k
5. Powers of X #2 Jonathan Hickman 107k
6. House of X #2 Jonathan Hickman 102k
7. Powers of X #3 Jonathan Hickman 100k
8. Absolute Carnage #2 Donny Cates 94k
11. Venom #17 Donny Cates 67k
12. Amazing Spider-Man #28 Nick Spencer 67k
13. Absolute Carnage vs Deadpool #1 Frank Tieri 67k
14. Absolute Carnage Scream #1 Cullen Bunn 64k
15. Amazing Spider-Man #27 Nick Spencer 63k
16. Immortal Hulk #22 Al Ewing 62k
21. Absolute Carnage Miles Morales #1 Saladin Ahmed 54k
25. Avengers #23 Jonathan Hickman 51k
27. Savage Avengers #4 Gerry Duggan 48k
28. Black Cat #3 Jed MacKay 48k
29. Ghost-Spider #1 Seanan McGuire 48k
30. Spider-Man Velocity #1 Dennis Hallum 47k
31. Gwenpool Strikes Back #1 Leah Williams 46k
There are only five comics above that are in double-digits in terms of run-number (so you can see why for a long time Marvel was notorious for rebooting properties to get the extra interest/cash of #1's). Here's a sample of other double-digit runs that are in the top-100:
33. Fantastic Four #13 Dan Slott 44k
41. Thor #16 Jason Aaron 42k
49. Captain America #13 Ta-Nehisi Coates 38k
53. Daredevil #10 Chip Zdarsky 34k
61. Tony Stark Iron Man #15 Dan Slott/Jim Zub 30k
69. Doctor Strange #17 Mark Waid 27k
70. Friendly Neighbourhood Spider-Man #11 Tom Taylor 27k
73. Doctor Strange #18 Mark Waid 27k
76. Friendly Neighbourhood Spider-Man #10 Tom Taylor 27k
82.
98.
*The book has a new title and writer, but I think the continuity is the same.
February, 2019 Marvel Top-Ten (minus Star Wars)
4. Venom #11 Donny Cates 85k
6. Amazing Spider-Man #15 Nick Spencer 71k
7.
9.
10.
11. Amazing Spider-Man #16 Nick Spencer 64k
13. Daredevil #1 Chip Zdarsky 62k
14.
17.
20. Fantastic Four #7 Dan Slott 55k
Double-digit runs in the top-100:
23. Avengers #14 Jason Aaron 49k
24. Avengers #15 Jason Aaron 48k
32. Immortal Hulk #13 Al Ewing 40k
34. Thor #10 Jason Aaron 39k
75. Doctor Strange #11 Mark Waid 23k
99.
August, 2018 Marvel Top-Ten (usual qualifiers)
1. Fantastic Four #1 Dan Slott 369k
2.
5. Amazing Spider-Man #3 Nick Spencer 86k
7. Amazing Spider-Man #4 82k
11.
12.
13.
16. Venom #5 Donny Cates 64k
18. Captain America #2 Ta-Nehisi Coates 61k
19. Avengers #6 Jason Aaron 59k
Double-digit runs in the top-100
54.
55.
62.
70.
78.
84.
87.
98.
*This became Dead Man Logan with the same writer and continuity, so the continuity doesn't end until the latter's cancellation about a year later.
February, 2018 Marvel Top-Ten (ibid)
There's more high-issue comics at this time because Marvel was experimenting with bringing in the old numbering--something they moved away from shortly thereafter
2. X-Men: Red #1 Tom Taylor 98k
7. 10.
12.
23. Amazing Spider-Man Annual #42 Dan Slott 44k
29.
30. Mighty Thor #704 Jason Aaron 42k**
32.
33.
34.
Double-digit runs in the top-100
35. Avengers #679 Al Ewing, Jim Zub, Mark Waid 39k
36.
38. Avengers #680 Al Ewing, Jim Zub, Mark Waid 38k
41. Old Man Logan #35 Ed Brisson 37k
43. Captain America #698 Mark Waid 36k
47. X-Men Gold #22 Marc Guggenheim 35k
49. X-Men Blue #22 Cullen Bunn 35k
50. Venom #162 Cullen Bunn 34k
54. 61. Invincible Iron Man #597 Brian Michael Bendis 30k
62.
63.
66.
70.
73.
77.
79.
83.
88.
90.
91.
92.
93.
94.
97.
*This transitioned into just Doctor Strange which was cancelled shortly afterwards
** Rebooted as Thor/Black Panther, but with the same writer and I believe continuity
*** Rebooted as...Punisher, but see the note from the 2019 list above
**** This became Immortal Hulk with a new writer
This is a relatively short period of time to cover (18 months), but we can see the trends I mentioned above (including that sales in August are much better than sales in February), as well as give us a sense of which writers have staying power.
- Al Ewing has actually increased demand for Immortal Hulk, which is otherwise unprecedented in the sample
- Donny Cates has maintained very stable numbers on Venom (paralleled, on this list and at a much lower threshold, by Mark Waid's Doctor Strange and Chip Zdarsky's Daredevil)
- What seems more typical are Jason Aaron's Thor and Dan Slott/Jim Zub's Tony Stark: Iron Man, where there is a second step down after the first issue and then stability (Aaron's had a pretty high level, the latter much lower)
- Ta-Nehisi Coates Captain America fell an additional tier before seeming to find stability
- Slott's Fantastic Four, on the other hand, simply seems to be declining
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