As I've mentioned in the last couple of posts I am still paying attention to the MCU, even if what's currently ongoing is depressing. I ought to point out that before the disappointment, I was already disinterested in What If? I never cared for it in the comics and I cared even less when Marvel was pushing it as an animated feature. Given that, other than numbers it's not something I'll be delving into. What I want to go over is Black Widow's box office in reference to James Gunn's The Suicide Squad and a few other things.
The failure of Black Widow is beyond argument at this point (you can watch a long review here which posits it's actually worse than Captain Marvel). The film sits at 368 at the box office, with another 60+ million from Disney+ purchases. We can generously ballpark it finishing at 450 overall, a number that easily beats James Gunn's The Suicide Squad (which bombed even harder; it currently sits at 118), but no matter what excuses you want to make for Covid, it underperformed (which is all that ever matters internally) and has the added insult of a lawsuit launched by its star against Disney. Box office aside, Widow is filled with the same bad writing that's plagued Phase Four (the glib attitude towards killing people remains difficult to comprehend). As I've said before, it seems like plot isn't something Kevin Feige is interested in--he wants specific character moments, jokes at regular intervals, and set action pieces--that's Michael Bay territory and Feige should know better. We also had the dreaded culture war pushing towards poor decisions: just like having no Doctor Strange in WandaVision because Men Bad, there were no Avengers cameos in Black Widow. This cartoonish mindset resulted in poor David Harbour's potentially interesting character getting flushed down the toilet. These approaches don't work, but the 1% shoving them down our throats can't comprehend that (thus Scarlet Witch torturing hundreds of innocent people then flying off without guilt because...Monica Rambeau would have done the same thing?--what?). It's very apparent that changing Taskmaster's gender was a late decision in the production due to the poor composite shots (it's obvious a stuntman is in the costume). I suspect the reason the switch was made was because of how early it leaked that O-T Fagbenle had the role (something that goes back two years). As it turns out the gender is irrelevant as Taskmaster is a limp villain who gets unceremoniously discarded.
As for what to make of the box office total, I think you want to add 20%-25% (which seems about right for F9's 681 tally). If you do so then Widow would have made Ant-Man 2 numbers...which is bottom feeder status. That's an unacceptable performance for a highly paid and extremely popular star as well as one of the more popular characters in the MCU. There's no getting around that it's a bomb and that failure means the launching of her successor (Yelena Belova) is on poor footing...just like every other new Phase Four character (except, maybe, John Walker). This reality is something fans are struggling to accept and I think you can equate them with Snyderverse fans: they've made their commitment and reality is not going to impact that act of faith. The MCU cannot sustain itself on an endless string of films at this level--it won't justify the budgets or investment. I have a feeling that we're going to get a Star Wars-esque 'slow down' announcement in the next year or two if the disappointments continue.
One thing we've learned from the fate of these two recent superhero films: WB's decision to have their films available for free on HBO Max hurt their box office far more than the paid model on Disney+, but neither have truly worked and I expect both formulas to be massaged so that there's no more simultaneous releases. The other thing it illustrates is how worthless critical scores are--The Suicide Squad in particular was lauded and Gunn's film couldn't have failed harder. Anecdotally, people I've talked too like Gunn's film more than Black Widow (which, as I predicted before it came out, is a lot like Guardians 2: comedy is good, story is not), but plenty of people feel no urgency to see it, which says a lot about how poorly both marketing and word-of-mouth did in persuading the public to go. Widow certainly had better marketing--and the launchpad that is the MCU--but that didn't push foot traffic either (the mixed reception of the Disney+ shows did not help).
I mentioned previously that I expected the interest in Loki to crash and burn like the other Disney+ shows and, indeed, that has happened. The long term impact of the show--how people feel about what happened to the character and the elimination of free will--remains to be seen. What I haven't seen anywhere, despite all the time and effort spent on her, is any interest in Sylvie.
The recent Eternals trailer continues a trend from the beginning of the marketing: hide the leads and focus on supporting characters (in this case Richard Madden). Having seen a little of Gemma Chan's performance I can see why--she has the emotional range of a pet rock. As for the substance of the trailer, it's primarily concerned with explaining why the group was AFK during prior phases and various human catastrophes, along with who they are. The latter seems more important for marketing, since casuals have no clue. The jokes included fall flat, which is a bad sign. There was also nothing to invalidate the plot leak from earlier in the year. While Eternals marketing has been more effective than Shang-Chi, this is yet another film that's a serious risk to bomb. Casting director Sarah Finn needs to be fired--so much of the casting for Phase Four has been a disaster--but I don't expect that to happen.
There have been a lot of rumours about infighting at Disney, with the general sentiment being that it's Bob Iger and Kevin Feige vs Bob Chapek. The rumour is that Chapek isn't happy with Feige's complete control over the MCU and wants his ideas cleared with the merchandizing first. Iger opposes this, as he prefers what he did with Kathleen Kennedy for Star Wars and (eventually) Feige (heads of departments do whatever they wish creatively). Is any of this true? It's certainly possible. Chapek can't help but notice Falcon & the Winter Soldier merch is dying on the shelves, and that the next person asking for a Ralph Bohner doll will be the first. The conspiracy theory attached to this idea is that Scarlet Johansson's lawsuit is part of a push to get Chapek out (Simu Liu, Shang-Chi, has also jumped in to criticize), but I'd take that with a grain of salt. I wouldn't be surprised if there's conflict within Disney, as so many projects throughout the company are struggling to meet expectations. Who has more power? The shareholders or those with clout in Hollywood? I have no idea, but I think for fans the result of this isn't something they'll feel for at least a couple of years. Funnily enough, with a few more bombs Chapek could survive the threat of Feige walking, an idea I would have told you was preposterous just a few months ago.
When the idea of Shang-Chi was floated by fans years ago I cautioned that it would not do well because, historically, martial arts films don't do well at the box office. This fell on deaf ears and with Shang-Chi approaching release, the clock of doom is ready to strike midnight. Early projections pegged the film for a 35-55 million domestic opening, which is far lower than Black Widow's 80 million and would make it the lowest opening for an MCU film ever (even The Incredible Hulk brought in more). This should surprise no one. Shang-Chi isn't a popular character, the trailers have been bland, the story predictable, and the cast is underwhelming. In addition, the film isn't going to release in China (radically hurting its box office), although it seems like it would have bombed there anyway. Do I think Feige will learn any lessons from this? Absolutely not. Disney, however, might. What the film failing might mean is that sequels get cancelled and the character will continue on either on Disney+ or within other people's films--that's the proper place for minor IP like this. Why Marvel ever thought they'd get Black Panther money from this is beyond me, but it appears as though a sharp reality check is in order.
While not related directly, I wanted to discuss how much of a slap in the face Paramount re-upping Alex Kurtzman is to the outrage Youtubers who have been ridiculing him for years. This isn't to say I think Kurtzman has done a good job with Star Trek properties (or anything else--his whole career is an unending string of disasters), but that there's been no self-reflection from these Internet celebrities over how their efforts to derail the man have failed. This lack of reflection doesn't surprise me, but it's worth noting (because they proclaim doom for many other things). Do I think hanging on to Kurtzman is going to help Paramount? Absolutely not--the guy has no talent--but it's an illustration that executives don't understand what makes for good entertainment.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
