MCU News & Notes

Let's take a look at Doctor Strange 2's box office (via Box Office Mojo):

• Opening Fri-Sun: 185 domestic (265 international)
• Second Fri-Sun: 88 domestic (47.5%)
• Current Total: 723 (310 domestic, 413 international)

How did the opener compare to Spider-Man 3? That film opened 260 domestically and 341 internationally, so close to 30%/25% lower. Spidey had legs, but Doctor Strange 2 hasn't had that kind of impact (even if some people were satisfied with the keys dangled in front of them). Will it hit a billion? I don't think so, but it will pass another underperformer in The Batman (768). Will Marvel make any serious changes to fix their issues? There's no sign of that yet (my expectation is just more and more memberberries, as they haven't yet hit their own Netflix Armageddon). It's getting harder and harder for me to get anecdotal feedback on MCU productions, as fewer people I know go to see them (the Doctor Strange 2 count is currently at one).

One other statistical note: I've noticed for awhile that Phase Four has generally performed better in the US than elsewhere, and you can see that trend here as well, although the difference is more subtle than in the case of Shang-Chi. This is worth keeping in mind when I discuss Nielsen numbers below, since those are exclusively American.

Midnight's Edge has an interesting breakdown of what they believe the lengthy re-shoots for the film were intended to do. According to their sources, they were to fix America Chavez and to provide an arc for Doctor Strange (who apparently had none in the rough cut). The former idea matches rumours during the re-shoots themselves (cf, although those rumours also claimed they were adding more cameos, which was not true), and certainly the latter would explain why even in the released film Strange is a passenger in his own movie. Despite the changes, the reception of Chavez has been what you'd expect given the low caliber of Phase Four writing.

Sutton has claimed for quite some time (cf) that John Krasinski will be Reed Richards and doubled down on that point recently (his fate in Doctor Strange 2 notwithstanding). He claims Krasinski pulled out of an extension for his Amazon show to take the job, although Sutton is unsure if he will direct the film or not (given that Jon Watts has walked). It's hard to be excited by the idea given how poorly the character was treated in Doctor Strange 2.

Moon Knight's second episode went up in the Nielsen's ratings (to 608 minutes watched, which put it 3rd vs other original shows and 8th overall in a very depressed streaming market). This is higher than the bulk of Hawkeye's episodes, but nowhere near it's two highest viewed. The third episode was a touch higher (638, 3rd and 7th), and about the same for its fourth (630, 4th and 7th), but nowhere near peak Hawkeye (which was nowhere near either Loki or WandaVision). In a lot of ways tracking Nielsen is trivial (given the limitations and the fact that other metrics clearly demonstrate the show's struggles), but I think it's good to have the numbers to compare.

I've seen the She-Hulk trailer, which I thought was awful, but is consistent with Phase Four, so if you've enjoyed it thus far, the show will likely work for you.

One of the creators I used to watch periodically was Angry Joe (his Doctor Strange 2 review is linked above). He made his career as a video game reviewer, but years ago added movie and show reviews to broaden his audience. Looking at Social Blade, up through July of 2020, this strategy worked very well, but since then, outside occasional spikes from major game reviews, his subscriptions have flatlined and views have been on a rollercoaster well below his peak. I suspect the issue for Joe is that he tends to like everything and plenty of other people already fill that niche--his show/film analysis isn't deep so there's nothing to sink your hooks into. This material is simply content, so there isn't a ton of pressure for him to improve on it, but he'd be far better off if there meaningful debates between he and his buddies.

Thanks to a friend of mine I was able to answer my speculation about Kamran disappearing off of Youtube: turns out he's simply been too busy to make the rounds (as a working screenwriter, that's an option he has that few other personalities have).

This article was written by Peter Levi

MCU News & Notes

The Nielsen ratings for Moon Knight have begun arriving and the first episode faired miserably. Keeping in mind the limitations of these numbers (American-only, limited sources), here's how it performed in context (the number is minutes watched):

Bridgerton 3,202 (#1 overall)

The Last Kingdom 714 (#3 overall)

Is it Cake? 607 (#7 overall)

Inventing Anna 452

Moon Knight 418

It didn't even crack the top-ten, earning itself the worst opener for an MCU show to date (it's half the viewership of Hawkeye's debut, cf). This is, at least in part, a result of the poor quality of Marvel shows to date. Just like with Hawkeye and Loki, the show is less about the protagonist than it is their female co-star (in this case Layla). This bait and switch approach has not gone over well and perhaps Echo is an attempt to at least be honest about their focus (Daredevil is in the show to create an audience, but it's not pretending to be a Daredevil show).

Buried in a recent Sutton story (link below) is that Moon Knight is only getting one season, which I can't recall hearing before (but fits the inability of Disney+ to generate enough interest for more than that). I really wonder what you do with Disney+ characters your audience knows nothing about--they can cameo in movies, sure, but making a full transition is going to be very hard (essentially they will have to be re-introduced in film).

Here's our Google Trends data (which is up-to-date, unlike the ratings), where Moon Knight peaked slightly higher than Hawkeye, but unlike that show steadily declined as it went on, whereas cameos in Hawkeye (memberberries!) boosted the latter a little during the run. It's expected that Ms. Marvel will tank even lower, but it's not clear what lessons (if any) Feige has taken from this other than more memberberries.

Jon Watts has walked away from directing Fantastic Four. His stated reason (wanting a break from superhero films) seems like PR and I believe he's pushing for more money after No Way Home rather than some sort of creative disagreement with Marvel (if he could put up with Feige/Pascal for three Spider-Man films, there's nothing he can't put up with).

Speaking of the Fantastic Four, it's funny how the John Krasinski situation has unfolded. None of the rumours about him picked-up on how he was used in Doctor Strange (we also had a Sutton faceplant for that film, as his Tom Cruise as Iron Man rumour, an old Daniel rumour, crashed and burned). As I'd suggested back in February, appearances like Krasinski's is something Marvel let slip to try to advertise the film, but given his usage (god knows what they were thinking) it's just going to irritate fans Last Jedi-style (it also explains why Emily Blunt kept turning down the offer).

Possible spoiler here, so skip this paragraph if you want to be unspoiled for Doctor Strange 2: going back to scoopers, in 2020 a 4chan post claimed Charlize Theron passed on the role of Clea, which is something Daniel subsequently repeated. Whether that 4chan post was accurate at the time or not, in the end it proved to be incorrect. Theron is a great actress, but as we've seen in Phase Four, that won't shine through crappy material. I also think Theron is far too old to play the role, but that's another matter entirely.

These photos (there are more, I just picked one) of Taika, his wife, and Tessa Thompson making out came out last May. I hadn't bothered addressing it because on the surface it's purely salacious, but there are two things that have to be said:

1. There's no other evidence this is why Tessa was cast in her role for Ragnarok (she fits the casting pattern of Phase Four and she's not the first actor in the MCU who can't act)
2. This is obviously problematic--directors should not make out with their actors (how consensual can it ever be when Taika controls her screen time and role in the film?); Hollywood is never consistent so there was no serious backlash to this occurring, but that doesn't change the fact that there's no scenario where a boss making out with their employee is ethical

Something that doesn't get discussed enough is Marvel's habit of not properly paying creators for their work--this isn't unique to Marvel, but it does them no credit (WotC does the same thing--Jeff Grubb wasn't consulted for the new Planescape setting, nor were Margaret Weis & Tracy Hickman for Dragonlance). Feige likes to pay lip service to creators, but nothing more apparently, and this may be one reason why he ignores classic stories in favour of current ones.

LotLB, from two unnamed sources (therefore presumably not including their old source 'The Black Knight', who I believe was an employee at Marvel Entertainment or else had direct access to one), claim a Silver Surfer Disney+ show is on-tap. This is a bizarre choice, given that Silver Surfer should be effects-heavy (and thus, better suited to a film). It's also a sharp contrast to Sutton's 2020 scoops that it would be a film, with Surfer beginning as a villain. Sutton still believes the character (and Galactus) are headed towards an Annihilation storyline.

The sequel to The Batman was given the go ahead, which presumably means Matt Reaves agreed to make repairs. About the only thing I feel sure of is the run time will be shorter. It will also apparently be constrained to its own pocket universe while the rest of the DCEU is supposed to be much more interconnected, which gives me hope we'll get a good Batman from someone else.

I saw The Northman and, while an interesting and distinctive film, it's a disappointment. I feel like too much material was stuffed into the film whose pacing is slow and whose storyline gets frequently diverted by extraneous elements. The film can't quite decide what it is--a historical epic or staying true to a saga--some of those elements coming across as unintentionally hilarious.

Something may have changed the relationship between Pasha and Midnight's Edge (cf), who hasn't appeared on their shows in weeks. I realize this is largely trivia, and Pasha seems to maintain a good relationship with Doomcock (who I don't keep tabs on--Star Wars is dead and that's largely what he covers), but it does mean a voice I used to hear I'm not hearing and he's one of the few who doesn't just parrot the same talking points. Is it drama? Is it coincidence? It's not clear.

This article was written by Peter Levi

Marvel News & Notes

Some fans are upset that Ms. Marvel's power set is changing for her Disney+ show. I've seen two kinds of complaints: one is related to a Muslim using magic (which is a religious issue I won't address here), and the other is that it's not faithful to the IP. While I sympathize with a desire to follow the source material, I think the change was inevitable with Mister Fantastic on his way to the MCU (duplicating their power sets is not a good idea). Broadly I prefer direct adaptations, but I don't object to the change in principal because this isn't a proven IP (the comics always fail, the video game underperformed, etc), so tweaking on several levels was necessary anyway (whether the specific change will work is a completely different question, but the show had already pissed off the IP's fans with casting, and Marvel seems focused on casuals anyway).

We've learned that there won't be a Hawkeye season two. Just like with WandaVision, there wasn't one specifically planned to begin with, however, there would be if it had been more successful. Viewership of Hawkeye was low (anecdotally none of my friends have seen it and I only know one person who has), which likely means no solo outings for Kate Bishop either. One positive is that fewer people witnessed how poorly Kingpin was portrayed, creating the opportunity for that to be fixed in Echo, although I don't expect it to be. By itself the lack of another season doesn't mean much, but the cumulative context continues to be that Phase Four is floundering. What Marvel needs is a strong Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4, although what's best for fans is for both to struggle in the hopes we get a change of course (my guess is the former will do well, but the latter could be in trouble).

One piece of DC news that came out of the Amber Heard/Johnny Depp trial is that current DC head Walter Hamada tried to replace Amber Heard with Emelia Clarke (!) in Aquaman 2. Clarke, like some other Game of Throne's costars, has failed in everything outside that show, so she's only an improvement by not having personal issues that are public. This news has drawn conspiracy theories (cf) that Heard will be replaced in reshoots, but I seriously doubt Discovery wants to spend more money on Aquaman 2, a film that I think will hit the same brick wall of Venom 2 (in that the success of the first was something of a fluke & there's limited interest in a sequel).

Speaking of DC, Sutton reports that because The Batman underperformed, WB is expecting director Matt Reaves to make artistic changes for a sequel. The metrics indicate women were the main demographic that ignored the film, which is interesting given that Robert Pattison was picked to appeal to that audience. It also illustrates that Zoe Kravtiz isn't a female draw either (which is less of a surprise, but given how popular Catwoman is, is added proof she was also a poor casting choice). I doubt Reaves will want to change his artistic vision, and I'd still argue the cast is too lackluster to save his slice of DC. If I were Discovery I'd wash my hands of it and reboot Batman (yes again--these films should sleepwalk to a billion dollars--the appetite for the character hasn't died).

I'm curious to see how Black Adam performs in October. We know that having Dwayne Johnson in a film doesn't guarantee success and, as someone who was heavily active in comics in the past, I'd never even heard of Black Adam until talk about the film began (admittedly I was a Marvel guy, but I read DC in the 80s). WB has failed selling lesser known IP (Shazam, Birds of Prey, and The Suicide Squad), leaning on their iconic characters (Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman, and Joker). Will this change with Black Adam? I have my doubts.

I haven't gone through Sony's Marvel projects in about a year, so let's update how things have changed:

Released/Filming

• Venom 2 (Oct) - Made almost 40% less than its predecessor--all the losses were worldwide (it was an equally solid if unspectacular success domestically)
• Morbius (Apr) - Bombed across the board
• Kraven the Hunter - Currently filming, but has an unappealing release date (Jan/23)

Production

• Venom 3 (Dec) - Amy Pascal said they were in the planning stages for it
• Madame Web (Feb) - Dakota Johnson hired to star; Sydney Sweeney hired in an unknown role (Mar)

No News

• Nightwatch - Last updated October, 2018
• Sinister Six - Last updated when Pascal said the project was 'alive' in December, 2018
• Roberto Orci project - Updated March, 2020
• Silver & Black - Updated April, 2020
• Jackpot - Updated May, 2020
• Olivia Wilde project (believed to be Spider-Woman) - Radio silent since August, 2020
• Silk (TV) - No updates since June, 2021

Technically Into the Spider-Verse is not part of the SMU, but it's worth noting that it's sequel is planned to release in 2023. The animated spinoffs appear to be dead (assuming Silk is not one of them; nothing official has been said since 2019 and the people producing them are instead busy making the sequel, so it's likely their appearance depends on how Part Two is received). While no one seems to care, Into was not a big hit at the box office and I'm curious to see how its sequel performs.

That aside, what can we make of all this? For one, Amy Pascal's stake in the Spider-Man IP is so strong that being fired from Sony doesn't keep her out of it. Beyond that, Sony's quality of writing for their films is just as bad as Marvel Phase Four, so the odds of any of these projects being good is very small. Of the 'no news' category, I think there's no chance that Nightwatch, Jackpot, or Pascal's Sinister Six will ever appear (just as Silk and Silver & Black did not, at least as originally conceived). If Silver Sable is in Madame Web, then that might be an attempt to launch her into a team-up film with Black Cat...maybe, if Sony is actually trying to plan things out. There are rumours that Black Cat will appear in Spider-Man 4, but whether that precludes her from debuting in Sony films we don't know yet.

I can't claim to understand it, but there is no stopping the group that continues to try and resurrect the Snyderverse. I can't convince anyone I know to watch The Snyder Cut and I don't blame them, as it's a boring, incoherent, and unintentionally hilarious film...and yet its adherents continue to sing its praises (MauLer's review remains much more entertaining than the film itself). The movement itself is massively confusing, as its adherents dislike Ezra Miller (Snyder's Flash), Amber Heard (Snyder's Mera), and Ray Fisher (Snyder's Cyborg), but want to restore his vision. That vision itself was poorly conceived and executed, with Snyder wanting to do the equivalent of MCU Phase Three with his opening (kill Superman, jump to Thomas Wayne, do Flashpoint in the first Flash film, pull Cyborg out of his Teen Titan context, etc). I don't think Discovery will let Zack run the DCEU again, but I do wonder if they think there's enough fans to support an HBO+ show or something similar. Supporters keep talking about how well The Snyder Cut did on streaming, but I haven't seen convincing evidence of that.

This article was written by Peter Levi

Marvel News & Notes

Something I'd apparently missed is that the idea for a WandaVision season two is officially dead (this is so commonly known I stumbled across it via John Campea). There was never any specific promise for another season, so this isn't a change in plans, although if the show had been better received the possibility certainly would be raised. What we have instead is the spinoff announced in October that no one wants (Agatha), based in part (I'd guess) off the popularity of her song. I'm curious to see if this project gets cancelled (I'm doubtful, but if any does, this is a strong candidate).

The Ankler's Jeff Sneider (by way of ComicBookMovie.com, by way of The Direct, by way of Sneider's podcast--oh what fun) claims there have been a lot of issues with She-Hulk. Let's note that the only story from The Ankler I followed previously was false, but that was from a different contributor almost three years ago. This idea, that the show has issues, is also bubbling up elsewhere in the rumour mill, but all those rumours seem to lead back to The Ankler (whose comments are based off people working on the show).

I wanted to walk along the road of superhero films from 2020 to present, because I don't think the results are a sign of market change, but instead the result of both poor writing and the inability to release in China. Here's the list by earnings (split domestic/foreign):

• (MCU) Spider-Man 3 1.89 billion (803/1.088)
• (DC) The Batman 735 (359/376; ongoing)
• (MCU) Black Widow 504 (183/196; includes Disney+)
• (Sony) Venom 2 502 (213/288)
• (MCU) Shang-Chi 432 (224/207)
• (MCU) Eternals 402 (164/237)
• (DC) Birds of Prey 201 (84/117)
• (DC) The Suicide Squad 167 (55/111)
• (DC) Wonder Woman 1984 166 (46/120)
• (Sony) Morbius 126 (57/69; ongoing)
• (Fox) New Mutants 49 (23/25)

There are a number of takeaways from these numbers:

1. Most of these films are bombs--not just disappointments, but films that lost money or just broke even. Superhero films are meant to pad profits, not lose money (I think Venom 2 and up can be considered to have made money, albeit only Spider-Man 3 achieved the success intended for it).
2. MCU failed more outside the US than in it, while domestic tallies for DC films are terrible, so Phase Four has worked better domestically (albeit still having lost over half their audience--you can make an incoherent mess like Eternals and North Americans will still show up, which fits my anecdotal evidence as well). This moderate success is not enough to carry the brand forward. The reverse is true of DC films, where an even smaller but consistent proportion of foreign fans will show up for anything DC, but that's not true of the American audience (I suspect the latter is related to how DC's failed films have looked like MCU films--bright, colourful, etc). Sony leans more towards the Marvel model of performance in the limited sample size, but the lukewarm results indicates my belief that the success of Venom was a fluke is correct (Morbius tanking will undoubtedly cause some issues at Sony for future projects).
3. Most of these are origin films for unpopular IP--none of the comics these characters are based on are popular (the obvious exception is Wonder Woman, but that film is Neil Breen-levels of stupid).
4. The one film that performed as expected is Spider-Man 3, which clearly benefited by being filled with memberberries in a way it can't repeat. The MCU is desperately trying to repeat that success in Doctor Strange 2 via extensive reshoots. It may work, although, again, they won't be able to do it again (barring a full return of the Phase One heroes).
5. No one is claiming any of these films are among the greats--what you hear is that they are entertaining, but not praiseworthy ala The Dark Knight, Infinity War, etc--this is clearly an issue of story and there's no sign that DC, Sony, or the MCU are aware of this or trying to address it

Let's take a look at MCU on streaming--I've included Witcher just as a point of comparison (as is clear, at its peak Loki remained far below the poorly written Netflix show). I'm using Google Trends in part because I don't have Nielsen numbers for the earlier shows (and Moon Knight ratings aren't out yet), although we need to remind ourselves of Nielsen's limitations (American only and a very limited number of households).

As for the data itself, I'd argue all the Disney+ shows were poorly conceived and written, with WandaVision benefiting from both being the first MCU show and its mystery element, while Loki got to ride on Tom Hiddleston's coattails. Their ultimate reception is clear--no serious resonance and no positive impact on films or each other. Moon Knight, incidentally, sits just above Hawkeye on GT, but nowhere near the two more discussed shows. The general trend is decreasing interest from the public, to the point where Marvel can't expect fans to have seen the shows prior to a film, making including characters/events from them much more problematic.

I'm curious what (if any consequences) are coming for Ezra Miller after this latest incident. Miller faced no consequences for his 'assault' of an Icelandic woman in 2020, but the incident in Hawaii is more extreme. What will WB do? It's hard to say, as I don't know where Hollywood is in terms of what is acceptable. My guess is he'll apologize, be sent to rehab, and WB will scale back plans for him, but they will attempt to otherwise ignore the incident for the sake of The Flash film.

Speaking of DC, Sutton claims the J. J. Abrams black Superman film is almost certainly going to be cancelled when Discovery takes over WB (the issue being a lack of story and an inflated budget). You'd think hiring Abrams would necessitate those elements to begin with, but regardless, if this is true it's a sign of just how chaotic things are--they need a fresh start with a clear vision from someone who actually knows what they are doing. Ditching Abrams would be the best move, but he cost so much I don't imagine that's feasible. It's an odd thing, attempting to do a Superman sequel character when you haven't spent any time on the actual Superman. As bad as Falcon and the Winter Soldier was, at least we had an established Captain America for Sam to springboard from.

I almost never go to Reddit anymore (I only went for scoops and I don't make a point of tracking them anymore), but I was bemused to see that Mikey Sutton is still banned for a "high ratio of debunked scoops." The mods who posted this make no attempt to justify it (nor has anyone actually systematically tracked Sutton's predictions--Pierre Chanliau started, but gave up, likely because the evidence wasn't as clear cut as hoped, cf; in 2020 he had Sutton at 5% wrong, 9% right, and the rest undetermined/other categories, cf). Don't take me as an apologist per se--Sutton kicked me out of his Facebook group, after all--but my interest has only ever been in accuracy. In the realm of scoopers, Sutton has done well enough in Phase Four. The Reddit list also suggests that Murphy is the one with the true 'in' with the mod community, as RPK does not get the carte blanch of truth that he does (this despite Murphy doing some faceplants for Falcon and the Winter Soldier among others).

This article was written by Peter Levi

Marvel News & Notes

Screen Geek (Frank Palmer) claims Black Bolt (played by Anson Mount) will appear in Doctor Strange 2. If true, the number of cameos for the film continues to climb and a character like this would clearly be killed or pushed to the side almost immediately (there's simply no time to spend on him). I think the point of this is to try and add value to IP by attaching it to the MCU umbrella--I don't foresee many sales of Inhumans by doing this, but if there's even one that's one more than there would have been otherwise. I believe many of these cameo characters will be killed--in Black Bolt's case no one will care, but if they go hardcore there might be some pushback (killing Patrick Stewart's Professor X would be fine--he already died in Logan and the man is a thousand years old--but there are some popular actors and portrayals in the mix--if you bring in John Krasinski's Mister Fantastic only to kill him, fans will be pissed).

Inside the Magic's Thomas Hitchen (who?) thinks hints of a second season of Ms. Marvel could mean an end of Brie Larson as Captain Marvel. As stretches go, this is as far as you can reach. While Larson may not have a long tenure in the MCU (that remains to be seen), as evidence amounts to nothing.

Given the era, I remain surprised by Sydney Sweeney's casting in Madame Web, although it's worth remembering Sony's Marvel properties don't use the MCU's casting director (and Tom Rothman likes names). Sutton speculates she could be Silver Sable and while I'm uncertain of that, I agree with him that she's unlikely to be Black Cat.

I haven't talked box office for awhile as there hasn't been anything relevant to discuss. DC's The Batman is out however, so let's look at the earnings and add context.

• The Batman (Mar.4) - 598 million (300 domestic, 298 worldwide)

On the domestic front, other than Spider-Man 3, the film has been a hit in relative terms (as in, post-Covid, it's well ahead of #2 Shang-Chi, but has no hope of matching Spider-Man 3). Worldwide the performance is mediocre--excluding Chinese films, it has no hope of catching the aforementioned, No Time to Die, or Fast Nine, but might reach Godzilla vs Kong (367). This is also a Batman film--adjusted for inflation it has caught Batman Begins (2005), but that's a low bar given both the performance of the Nolan sequels and because it's a different superhero era. A Batman film should make a close to billion (that's certainly how the WB exec's see it), so no matter how you slice it, this is a disappointing performance. Without having seen the film myself, it's difficult to say why, although its length and an apparent poor ending are factors. On my end, the cast was underwhelming and nothing about the trailers or hype made me feel the need to rush out and see it (the only element I liked is Batman as a detective, but reviews I've seen have suggested its supporting characters who do the work). I felt the same indifference about Val Kilmer's Batman Forever (which I never saw in theaters, and granting that I like Kilmer while I don't care for Pattinson).

I'm not sure what to do with this rumour as it seems ancillary to Ms. Marvel, but since Sana Amanat is a crucial figure for that IP and is a VP at Marvel Comics, it's worth mentioning. Since at least December it's been suggested Amanat will be fired or removed for alleged harassment of male employees, with those reporting the news suggesting this will be done very quietly to avoid embarrassment (and, presumably, to prevent the news from impacting the marketing of the show). I don't think this will impact the quality of the show or the future of the IP, although if it does get out it might have a small effect on how the show is received.

Let's put in the grain of salts warning for the Nielsen Ratings, as these are American ratings and retain the limitations Nielsen had with cable--restricted to a small volume of participant households; despite that, it's at least an indicator for American preference; to make them standout more, I've italicized the genre shows (these are minutes watched, incidentally, with the number relating to a comparison against all viewing):

Ozark 2,904

Archive 81 1,035

Cobra Kai 670 (#6)

Cheer 597

Boba Fett 580 (#10)

Witcher 464

Too Hot to Handle 332

After Life 283

Stay Close 271

Emily in Paris 248

Ozark 4,095

Boba Fett 744 (#4)

The Woman Across etc 650

Archive 81 462

All of Us are Dead 448

Cobra Kai 395

In From the Cold 349

Witcher 315

Too Hot to Handle 309

Cheer 287

Ozark 2,372

Reacher 1,843

Sweet Magnolias 1,320

Raising Dion 1,133

The Woman Across etc 1,121

All of Us Are Dead 850

Boba Fett 776 (#8)

In From the Cold 658

Murderville 351

Pam & Tommy 312

Reacher 1,589

Sweet Magnolias 1,556

Ozark 1,222

Inventing Anna 1,219

Boba Fett 885 (#6)

Raising Dion 757

Love is Blind 478

All of Us Are Dead 454

Disenchantment 397

The Woman Across etc 366

Inventing Anna 3,283

Love is Blind 1,439

Ozark 1,083

Reacher 983

Sweet Magnolias 898

The Marvelous Ms. Maisel 499

Raising Dion 489

Space Force 438

All of Us are Dead 340

Boba Fett 339

The Ozark second week numbers are bizarre (I don't mean because it's popular, but in reference to anything else I've ever seen), but that aside, Boba Fett lingered like a bad smell (get your Vespa's running). I think one of the reasons why non-Netflix shows linger at a low level longer is that some people wait until the run is over to binge it Netflix-style.

We can also make a relatively fair comparison between how two genre IP faired when compared against one another (the second set of numbers is their percentage drop week-to-week, with the red indicating which dropped more when compared):

• Witcher: 2734-1827-1105-624-464-315 (7,019)
• Cobra Kai: 2423-2153-1038-670-395 (6,679)
• Witcher: 33%-40%-43%-25%-32%
• Cobra Kai: 12%-48%-35%-41%

Witcher started higher (12%) and remained on the chart a week longer, but Cobra Kai had back-to-back strong opening weeks before joining the fantasy show's steep decline (while they bingo back and forth between drops the totals are almost equal, just a 9% difference). Without question there's a bigger audience for Witcher, which helped keep it viewed a bit longer, as Cobra Kai is just safe, family entertainment. It's worth reiterating that all the hardcore Witcher IP fans on Youtube have given up on the show outside of future content and I think that's broadly true--views now rest entirely on casuals (poor CDPR, who is going to offer skins to match the show, isn't going to get much bang for its buck doing so in-game).

We can see that Amazon's The Legend of Vox Machina did not penetrate the market initially (at least by Nielsen's measure) and we can safely say that it won't hit Invincible or Arcane levels. It's worth noting that ancillary data points, such as people continuing to post YT reactions, remain after the show ended, which suggests an underlying cult success beyond the Critical Role audience. I'm guessing, assuming the numbers remain the same, that it didn't do as well as hoped, but hasn't failed (having 'adult' content likely didn't help, although I appreciate that they did). My own opinion remains the same: the show did well with humour, but the plot and character development is unremarkable and occasionally histrionic.

One of the unknowns that I'm curious about is whether Amazon can invest casuals into their LOTR project. It seems like most of the hardcore fans have already rejected it, and there are rumblings in the industry which are not normal (Forbes referenced criticisms, when normally they'd ignore or attack them). When season one of the successful Witcher came out the show made minor changes in response to criticisms--largely aesthetic, but also a switch to a linear narrative. These surface level changes did nothing to improve the core problem of poor writing and I think we'll see this come home to roost with the prequel and season three. As for LOTR, I just don't know. Everything about it reminds me of Amazon's The Wheel of Time which, while it didn't bomb, was not a hit and will see a smaller audience tune in for its second season (heading down the road of the failed Shannara series of eons past). I would expect LOTR to open much bigger, but will casuals reject it the same way? Time will tell.

This article was written by Peter Levi

MCU News & Notes

The Doctor Strange 2 trailer was solid if ephemeral (it's surprisingly low on Google Trends--that recent snapshot doesn't illustrate how far behind it hit versus other big IP); America Chavez was mostly hidden, which I suspect was due to most of her scenes being re-shot. Alarm bells were ringing for me when Wanda says how it doesn't seem fair that it's okay for Doctor Strange to break the rules, but not her. If this comment represents the view of the MCU, it's a failure to understand the criticism of WandaVision, where our heroine tortured hundreds of people for selfish reasons (she was sad) with no consequences or condemnation in the narrative (which does not compare at all to what Strange does in Spider-Man 3). I have a suspicion that the MCU is going to argue in the story that because the results of what Strange did are worse, he's worse than Wanda, whose torture was also unintentional. As reasoning goes this isn't very good, since Strange did what he did to save someone and faces resistance to do so, while Wanda's was purely selfish and is given approbation and forgiveness throughout (the hilarious Monica Rambeau faceplant). Let's hope I'm wrong and it's not as hamfisted as it appears (this is Phase Four however, and coherent story and character has largely been flushed down the toilet).

Beyond that, the trailer confirmed a couple of long-standing MCU rumours:

1. The Savage Land (2019, May) - LotLB (via their original source) were the first to float the idea that I'm aware of (this scoop was involved with their fight with Murphy, cf; I'd speculated about it appearing a year earlier), which Sutton echoed months later--in both cases they said it would be used in the second X-Men film (Sutton claims we see the Savage Land in the trailer)--it's not exactly as predicted, since neither put it in Doctor Strange 2, but still of note; if we get Ka-Zar and Shanna, I expect at least one race swap and little to no comic accuracy in their portrayal (unless it's some modern iteration I'm unaware of, likely where Shanna has Ka-Zar's role), as that's been the Phase Four trend
2. The Illuminati (2020, January) - Sutton correctly said the group would appear in the film; we also now know that Patrick Stewart was either: 1) lying to protect an NDA when he claimed he'd rejected Feige's offer to reappear as Professor X because Logan was such a good send-off of the character, or 2) subsequently changed his mind (I suspect the former, since with Picard he said 'no' until they paid him more and gave in to some demands to service his ego)

The major curiosity for Strange 2 is how much the cameos will boost interest (my prediction that Marvel would spoil cameos before release was confirmed by the trailer). Nostalgia is a powerful drug and if the film is at least average, that's enough to drag its box office towards what used to be the MCU norm. What I'm not expecting is a truly good film (ala the first Doctor Strange).

More Nielsen ratings:

Cobra Kai 1038 (#2, -52%)

Cheer 629

Witcher 624 (#8, -46%)

Stay Close 558

Boba Fett 467 (-12%)

Queer Eye 394

Emily in Paris 357

Archive 81 329

Ozark 324

Undercover 277

The crash for The Witcher continues (just 22% of the audience remains/returns), with none of the externals we saw after season one (strong book sales, increase in game popularity, etc); Netflix shows tend to burn out quickly, and its general arc is similar to Cobra Kai (albeit with a stronger opening and weaker second week). This won't hurt the approach to a third season, but the level of hype is going to suffer and I expect the prequel series to tank (I thought Ozark is a useful example--a show built from a fantastic first season with a poorly written second--but as it turns out, it's not). The lingering stench of Wheel of Time has finally fallen off the list, while the bumbling Vespa-fueled Star Wars effort continues to stumble (I have no idea what can save the brand at this point--presumably even more memberberries).

I haven't referenced Amazon's Lord of the Rings for quite some time, but since my optimistic post in August all the news for it has been bad and I've surrendered to the fact that it's going to be just as disappointing as the adaptations of The Witcher and The Wheel of Time (albeit with better visuals). Like those shows, it's being made for casuals and I have no idea if they will tune in or not (they did for Witcher, but not for Wheel of Time--early investment for bigger IPs might be the trend). All three of these fantasy shows were made by people with no prior experience or investment in the genre and it shows. I am enjoying the meme of people commenting on the teaser with a paraphrase of Tolkien's comment about evil's inability to create (via Frodo in Return of the King). Amazon has already made the Ghostbusters error of fighting with fans and once you go down that road you're just making it harder and harder to succeed.

Let's look at what possible reactions to the adaptation could mean (which, as I've said many times before, we will get multiple seasons of no matter how it's received--fantasy shows are so expensive to make they require multiple seasons):

1. It's a smash hit - the trend of butchered adaptations will continue and we can expect another decade or so of terrible fantasy productions; none of this detracts from the source material or the Jackson films, but would likely mean the upcoming Warner Brothers anime will be similarly ridiculous
2. It bombs - the best case scenario for adaptations in general--the IP was so expensive to acquire it will rattle Amazon Prime--that won't save the show and likely puts to bed any other Second Age adaptation for a long time (and such an adaptation would have to be different from Amazon's anyway); it could also signal more faithful fantasy adaptations throughout the industry
3. Response is mixed - the most likely result and as such won't set a trend

What's funny is that all these recent fantasy shows were intended to achieve the success of Game of Thrones, but none have come remotely close to it (I'd compare Witcher season one to Stranger Things in terms of initial impact). In fact, they are so different from GoT I'm not sure how executives thought any of them would capture that market--the entertainment industry loves imitation, but this is the loosest sort. It makes me wonder if we'll see a souring of interest in adapting fantasy because of the cost.

Let's end on a positive note. As per usual the best things on a streaming service were made by someone else, and this is the case for The Legend of Vox Machina. The animated feature is based on the hit D&D show Critical Role (on Twitch and Youtube) and for someone casually aware of it I've enjoyed it thus far. The humour is what carries it, as the story has pacing issues, but I'm curious to see how it did with the normies and we don't have Nielsen numbers yet. It's far better than I expected, although that doesn't guarantee its second season will be good (we simply don't know--Critical Role has hired some uninspiring people to write their comics, ala Sam Maggs, and we can see modern tendencies creep in along the edges in the show itself).

This article was written by Peter Levi

Marvel News & Notes

I've talked about the reshoots going on for the MCU right now and one thing that's not been made clear is how much of it is due to poor testing and how much is a matter of riding the wave of memberberries from Spider-Man 3 (the official reason is the latter, incidentally). I think it's a mix of both, since the reworking of America Chavez (whose scenes are believed to have been almost completely re-shot, cf) has no obvious parallel to the Spidey blockbuster. On the other hand, the number of cameos (likely intended to be high even before Spidey's success) has possibly been increased. What I'm most interested in is what the MCU decides to do with Doctor Strange, since thus far the whole thrust of Phase Four is to subvert and diminish the older heroes to make space for the new (something comics have tried and failed to do numerous times). On the surface, Wanda would be the presumed person to supersede him, but her story in WandaVision was botched so badly I'm not sure what you can do with her. Perhaps an even more brave and amazing spellcaster will emerge to save the multiverse--time will tell. I'm also curious how the reaction to the absurd Loki will impact whatever was intended (since it was the most obvious lead-in to the film thematically)--it's simply not clear unless we get an Eternals-style leak.

Sutton says Tom Cruise will be playing an alt-version of Iron Man in the film, which is an old Daniel rumour from the fall of 2020, and a pretty big 'win' for him if true.

The obvious save for the MCU--and not one we'll get, but what would save them from themselves--is that the entirety of Phase Four occurs in the multiverse and can be waved away in a better written Phase Five. This will never happen, because Kevin Feige and his executives would have to admit making mistakes (look at DC's inability to do the same, or Star Wars, or Star Trek, etc), but for fans this is one way out of this disaster.

I have no idea what audience Marvel thinks will show up for an Agatha Harkness show. At least Echo, who is equally uninteresting, can be carried by Daredevil (albeit, if it's done Hawkeye-style, that won't work--and Kingpin has already been ruined, so I haven idea which Daredevil villain she'll bravely defeat). While it may be too far along, Bob Chapek can still save us from Agatha, but there's no rescuing us from Echo.

I'm shocked that Sony cast Dakota Johnson as Madame Web. This project has been floating around for awhile, and given that Sony announces a lot of projects that don't happen, this one always had a better chance of happening because it was backed by Palak Patel, who seems to be the one actually in charge of Marvel Sony (he's behind both Venom films as well as Morbius). In 2019 it was said that Madame Web would spinoff from Morbius and writers were hired at that time. Both C. J. Clarkson and Roberto Orci are rumoured to have been hired for the project (both were hired for something for Marvel Sony), although the latter would run against Hollywood's current passion for having female directors for female-lead films. That background aside, I'm shocked the character hasn't been race-swapped and/or been an actress who doesn't conform to the usual beauty standards (MCU-style). The hiring smacks of Tom Rothman, who believes in stars (or at least names) and wants them to front his films. Johnson's hiring doesn't guarantee quality (the odds are that the film--if it happens--won't be anything to write home about), but I remain surprised how counter programming it is to the current norm.

Nielsen Ratings

Witcher 2734 (+20%; #1)

Emily in Paris 938 (#2)

Hawkeye 938 (+39%; #3)

Wheel of Time 638 (+27%; #7)

Lost in Space 490

Great British Baking Show 256

Jurassic World Camp Cretaceous 211

Marvel's Daredevil 195

Jim Gaffigan: Comedy Monster 186

Money Heist 183

Cobra Kai 2423 (December 31st; #1)

Witcher 1827 (-34%; #4)

Emily in Paris 1110 (+16%; #5)

Wheel of Time 630 (-1%; #9)

Hawkeye 539 (-43%)

Queer Eye 466

Lost in Space 452

Book of Boba Fett 389 (December 29th)

Stay Close 349

Great British Baking Show 338

Cobra Kai 2153 (#1)

Witcher 1105 (#3)

Stay Close 988

Queer Eye 723

Book of Boba Fett 563 (#10)

Emily in Paris 553

Ozark 301

Wheel of Time 300

Lost in Space 291

Great British Baking Show 254

I think we can hitch the brief bump in Wheel of Time viewing to curious Witcher watchers hoping for more of the same (and, indeed, for bad writing that's exactly what they got--the Amazon show has lingered like a bad smell). The Witcher's numbers are plummeting, albeit less than half its audience is still enough to remain in the top-three. I think interest in the prequel will give the best indication of how invested casuals remain, as the hardcore fans have given up. How do we know the second season hasn't done as well? Besides the precipitous drop in viewing, we have indirect evidence for it: no hit song, no massive increase in playing the game on Steam, no big jump in streaming numbers, and no big increase in game or book sales. As for the bump for Hawkeye, it seems to be MCU fans (buoyed by Spider-Man 3, echoing what happened briefly to Daredevil) checking it out before it bottomed off the chart entirely. In terms of genre, The Book of Boba Fett landed like a wet fart, although Star Wars fans are so desperate for something to be good there's room for it to be a 'success' on the small scale of The Mandalorean.

About two years ago I thought the outrage YT sphere ('The Fandom Menace', which has remodeled itself as 'The Fellowship of the Fans') was in trouble because their cash cows, Star Wars and Star Trek, were failing and a declining audience would stimmy growth. This is egg on my face, because while those IP continue to decline, poor management and writing has spread to other genre IP, thus breathing more life into them. In honour of my erroneous prediction, let's look at how this bonanza has rewarded the YTers mentioned then:

• Mr. H Reviews 241k->289k (+48k)
• Nerdrodic 234k->400k (+166k)
• Geeks + Gamers 224k->324k (+100k)
• Midnight's Edge 168k->208k (+40k)
• Overlord DVD 151k->273k (+122k)

The two least effected channels were the two least devoted to the content trap (Mr. H and Midnight's Edge). The 'let's get/stay angry' channels have done far better while diversifying their content. I think Gary (Nerdrodic) has pulled ahead because he's more savvy in picking his guests (people like Chrissie Mayr, MauLer, etc). Midnight's Edge continues to be the most 'serious' channel, but their odd panels don't help views in the same way and they seem to have been frozen out by Nerdrotic--whether this is related to the drama last year I don't know. For some who read my content this is all trivial, but I find popular tastes interesting and there's no denying these creators are popular, beginning to approach the gaudy numbers of corporate friendly Emergency Awesome. In terms of news only Midnight's Edge and (to a much lesser extent) Overlord DVD break stories, with the rest being commentary channels, meaning that for general audiences it's how news is discussed more than the news itself that matters.

This article was written by Peter Levi