Marvel's SDCC reveal has come and gone and the major surprise was the lack of surprises and how brief a time period Phase Four will cover (2020-21). Everything announced had been previously leaked except for Blade (which isn't in Phase Four regardless)--even the dates had been correctly guessed. The only surprises were some of the casting choices. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, just what struck me as most notable.
With that out of the way, let's go through the projects one-by-one and compare them to what we knew coming in and what had been rumoured (using this summary as our primary reference, with adjustments for news that came out after I posted that). My last date prediction was before the Thor 4 announcement, putting it a bit off, while Charles Murphy (updating as he went on social media) was correct on all the dates for the Phase Four films.
The Films
May, 2020 - Black Widow - This release date had been understood forever because of where it stood in the production cue, but what wasn't clear was the timeline. Let's go through the various rumours:
- Sebastian Stan's reported comment in May (and a Redditor's in July) was correct that the film is post-Civil War; this debunked what THS (Murphy) said in both April and October; Jeremy Conrad's Y2K rumour in September; and TMSM's in June that it would be pre-Iron Man. While Conrad tends to parrot things he's read elsewhere (when he isn't simply guessing), I suspect someone leaked the 2004 David Hayter script for Lionsgate as the MCU's version of the film and this is what confused so many different leakers (clearly specific information for this film was not part of the massive leak Murphy received right after Infinity War dropped).
- The original THS casting leak has at least partially held up: Florence Pugh as the "female bond", O-T Fagbenle as "late 20/early 30s African, Middle Eastern, or East Indian", and Rachel Weisz as "50s in smaller, villainous role." The other four roles can't be judged until we see more of the cast.
- The 4chan leak in May that Florence Pugh was playing Yelena Belova was confirmed
- The many rumours that David Harbour was Taskmaster were debunked (he's playing Alexei Shostakov, aka Red Guardian in the comics)--none of these rumours came from the major leakers (Murphy debunked it a month ago); LotLB's belief that he was was playing Ben Grimm was understandably debunked, as was Murphy's speculation that it was Fagbenle's role
- Fabbenle is playing The Agent--the only rumour even close to this was LotLB, who had Henry Cavill as US Agent--despite similar names these are two distinct characters (Rick Mason is the former, John Walker the other)
- No one knew who Weisz was playing (she is Iron Maiden, Melina Vostokoff)
On the whole Marvel kept a pretty tight lid on the film. THS' casting leak seems real, but was so vague that the film's nature remained unknown. We now know (thanks to Weisz) that it features a number of Black Widows, and it's clear the intent of the film is to hand the role over to Florence Pugh going forward. I do wonder how they'll dance around the absence of the other Team Cap characters.
November, 2020 - The Eternals - Another date deduced by the production slate, so let's go through the various rumours:
- Part of the THS plot summary--that the struggle would be against the Deviants--has been confirmed at SDCC
- Beginning with Murphy at THS, including the trades (THR), and a very recent report from Umberto Gonzalez, had Sersi in a prominent role--right now she's not even in the film, although LofLB are claiming Marvel is in active negotiations with Millie Bobby Brown to play the role (THR's report was that the film was a love story between Ikaris and Sersi, which seems pretty unlikely given Richard Madden's age, 33, and Brown's, 15)
- THR reported Angelina Jolie was Sersi (THS correctly scooped she was in negotiations to join the cast), but she's actually playing Thena (keep in mind it is entirely possible Marvel simply changed her name due to all the reports of who she was playing)
- Richard Madden was correctly identified as Ikaris by the trades (Variety)
- Kumail Nanjiani's involvement comes from the trades (THR), but no one identified him as Kingo Sunen (so he's race-swapped from Japanese to Pakistani)
- None of the other actors had been rumoured and the old THS' Hercules speculation from their initial cast scoop crashed and burned (Don Lee is a race-swapped Gilgamesh, Lauren Ridloff a race and gender-swapped Makkari--she's also a deaf actress, although I'm unsure if we'll get sign language--the MCU has never used it, although we saw a version of it from Black Bolt in The Inhumans)
- THS did correctly have a gender-swapped Sprite (Lia McHugh), and the "Karen" character may be Salma Hayek's gender-swapped Ajak
- There's no sign of Druig, Elysius, Zuras, or Starfox from the original THS cast scoop
- No one had Phastos as part of the film (race-swapped for the movie)
- Rumours about Millie Bobby Brown's involvement are currently busted unless LotLB are correct; Keanu Reeves' involvement (from 4chan and then Conrad) involvement also seems debunked
The project is already filming in London, which is around the August window we've been hearing for awhile.
February, 2021 - Shang-Chi - Because of the Chinese New Year most people predicted this release date (even Armin). As for other rumours:
- The 4chan rumour (May) of the Mandarin appearing in the film was confirmed (whether he's the father or not we don't know)
- All the casting predictions crashed and burned (no Donnie Yen (LotLB and others), Ludi Lin, etc); Simu Liu, who got the lead role, pushed for it on social media
As is apparent not much leaked or was known about this project, other than it was happening. GWW claims Marvel is looking for a 25-35 African-American actor for the role of "Adam" with no idea what movie it is for (they believe it's either the role of Midnight in Shang-Chi or Doctor Voodoo in Doctor Strange 2). I'm dubious of GWW's speculation because of their ridiculous Norman Osborn guess from a month ago.
May, 2021 - Doctor Strange 2 - There was a big surprise here, but we'll go through that:
- Derrickson gave away Nightmare as the villain back in the promotional tour for the first Doctor Strange
- There was no clear sign, yet, of any of Wardell's (May) rumoured characters (the Ancient One, Doctor Voodoo, or Clea, but see the GWW rumour above) or the time-travel element
- There's also no sign of the 4chan (May) characters (Christine Palmer, Mordo, and Wong)
- No one predicted Scarlett Witch would appear and I'd call this the biggest casting surprise next to Blade
- The Namor rumour Derrickson started seems off the table
- Deadline claimed the film would be in 2020
Much like Shang-Chi there weren't a lot of rumours about this one. I wonder, given the title, if Derrickson is drawing inspiration from John Carpenter's In the Mouth of Madness? I'm also curious what they'll do with Wanda in the film (her series, apparently, directly leading into it)? LofLB claim mutants will be introduced in WandaVision/Doctor Strange 2 as from another multiverse and that's where we'll meet her father (they say it will be a loose adaptation of the House of M with Nightmare tormenting Wanda's mind).
November 2021 - Thor 4 - Only recently announced, so let's go through it:
- TMSM's claim that the film would be in 2023 crashed and burned (he's subsequently said that it's behind other films in terms of pre-production--take that with a grain of salt)
- No one predicted Natalie Portman would return as Jane Foster (something that makes me groan--I've seen her in at least ten films and she's been painfully bad in all of them); this makes the LotLB's rumour that Angela will appear almost certainly false
One of the strange things 'announced' about the film is that Valkyrie is an LGBTQ character, but this was confirmed back in the lead-up to Ragnarok so isn't news. That her relationship is with Jane isn't that interesting either (granted, because they've gone back to Portman, I'm not sure how you make the Foster-Thor work--"Emote Natalie!" followed by "I can't!").
I'm not sure how I feel about a Phase only lasting two years--it's the most truncated Phase we've ever had and lacks an obvious bookend like an Avengers film (it's also shorter, in terms of films, than both Phase Two and Three). It's difficult to imagine a throughline. If, and we've no confirmation of this, the rumour that cosmic/grounded are separated, then Black Widow->Falcon and the Winter Soldier->Hawkeye would clearly be the latter, with The Eternals->WandaVision->Doctor Strange->Loki->Thor 4 being the former (it's unclear what kind of film Shang-Chi would be--presumably grounded to round things out).
Upcoming Films
- Guardians of the Galaxy 3 - We heard no specifics; THR claimed it was filming in 2020 (TMSM going further and saying February), both of which remain feasible
- Black Panther 2 - Given that Ryan Coogler started writing it recently there aren't many rumours out there
- Captain Marvel 2 - Confirming the obvious (that it gets a sequel); what Monica Rambeau's appearance in WandaVision portends for this I have no idea
- Fantastic Four - It's long been speculated that this would be the first Fox IP to appear and that seems to be the case (although without dates, we can't be absolutely certain); Conrad (and many others) predicted 2022 (this date is also a litmus test for Wardell, who debunked the rumour)
- Blade - This was the big surprise; a Blade script has been floating around since 2013 and the film has been on the board for the MCU since the very beginning; other than his age, Mahershala Ali is a great choice and apparently he is the one who asked for the property; LofLB say that plans to have Tomb of Dracula put on Hulu are on hold because of the film, claiming Wesley Snipes will play Dracula (or has been offered that role) in the film
- "Mutants" (presumably X-Men because Kevin Feige subsequently said the two terms are interchangeable--I wonder if this vagueness is related to Victoria Alonso's bizarre idea that "X-Men" is sexist) - Feige also said "Whatever we do will be quite different than what's been done before," which matches my speculation of how they would approach the property; LofLB says the first X-Men film will be called House of X and claim the MCU are using Jonathan Hickman's current plans for the comics--as much as Feige likes Hickman's work, I rather doubt they would hitch themselves to whatever plans he has
Other IP
There was no sign of Ant-Man 3, making it likely there will be no sequel for Peyton Reed's franchise (if true, my prediction back in September still stands). We also didn't see hints of Captain Britain, Namor, Black Knight, Thunderbolts, Nova, Iron Heart, or an Avengers film, all of which have been rumoured.
Related Errors
There were many people (TMSM and others) saying no Fox IP for five years or more (2024 and later)--a nonsensical proposition boosted by Feige that's been blown out of the water
LotLB said Young Avengers would be announced at SDCC (didn't happen); they were at least partially correct about Fantastic Four and X-Men being announced
TMSM said Nova was further along than Thor 4, which is doubtful given the announcements
Disney+
One note that came through the announcement is that all shows take place after Endgame (with special circumstances for Loki and not counting the animated What If?). This isn't actually news, per se, simply confirming what prior rumours (and Bob Iger) have made clear. In terms of scoops, there isn't a lot to go on as most of the MCU-related sites are focused on the movies.
Fall, 2020 - The Falcon and the Winter Soldier - Confirmed Deadline's report that Zemo was part of the cast (no sign yet of Sharon Carter); otherwise we can't judge the rumours (both from 4chan)
Spring, 2021 - WandaVision - The only detail we received was that Monica Rambeau would appear (!); this odd inclusion might suggest she won't be in Captain Marvel 2 (certainly there were no rumours about her--perhaps she's the one who inspires Ms. Marvel); we didn't get enough details to either confirm or deny what little we've heard about the show (all from 4chan), but apparently it will tie-in to Doctor Strange 2 and that during the show we'll see characters we've met before (Feige did use the plural, so presumably he's not only talking about Rambeau); I've seen speculation that Quicksilver could appear, but keep in mind that's speculation--Aaron Taylor-Johnson is currently shooting Tenet which will wrap no earlier than September, meaning he could be available in the fall when the show films). Kinda Culty believes the story will borrow from the "Avengers Disassembled" storyline (where Wanda suffers a full mental breakdown and needs Doctor Strange to pull her out of it)--this is certainly plausible.
Spring, 2021 - Loki - It was with sweet relief that we learned the Loki we're seeing is from the alternative timeline created by Endgame rather than the pre-history of the character who died in Infinity War; otherwise there just wasn't enough revealed to judge the rumours; interestingly, this show is already filming, but will appear third among the Disney+ series' (I assume this has to do with either Tom Hiddleston's schedule, MCU storylines, or both).
Fall, 2021 - Hawkeye - Variety confirmed Kate Bishop's participation in April, so there was nothing new here, although it does seem like the 4chan leak back in January is right about the plot (Hawkeye coming out of retirement to train Kate when she gets herself into trouble trying to be him).
Summer, 2021 - What If? - This animated series was announced back in March, but I was so disinterested I didn't report it; my interest hasn't changed--I never cared for these stories in the comics either and the fact that it's animated makes it even more ancillary to the MCU.
Fall, 2020 - The Falcon and the Winter Soldier - Confirmed Deadline's report that Zemo was part of the cast (no sign yet of Sharon Carter); otherwise we can't judge the rumours (both from 4chan)
Spring, 2021 - WandaVision - The only detail we received was that Monica Rambeau would appear (!); this odd inclusion might suggest she won't be in Captain Marvel 2 (certainly there were no rumours about her--perhaps she's the one who inspires Ms. Marvel); we didn't get enough details to either confirm or deny what little we've heard about the show (all from 4chan), but apparently it will tie-in to Doctor Strange 2 and that during the show we'll see characters we've met before (Feige did use the plural, so presumably he's not only talking about Rambeau); I've seen speculation that Quicksilver could appear, but keep in mind that's speculation--Aaron Taylor-Johnson is currently shooting Tenet which will wrap no earlier than September, meaning he could be available in the fall when the show films). Kinda Culty believes the story will borrow from the "Avengers Disassembled" storyline (where Wanda suffers a full mental breakdown and needs Doctor Strange to pull her out of it)--this is certainly plausible.
Spring, 2021 - Loki - It was with sweet relief that we learned the Loki we're seeing is from the alternative timeline created by Endgame rather than the pre-history of the character who died in Infinity War; otherwise there just wasn't enough revealed to judge the rumours; interestingly, this show is already filming, but will appear third among the Disney+ series' (I assume this has to do with either Tom Hiddleston's schedule, MCU storylines, or both).
Fall, 2021 - Hawkeye - Variety confirmed Kate Bishop's participation in April, so there was nothing new here, although it does seem like the 4chan leak back in January is right about the plot (Hawkeye coming out of retirement to train Kate when she gets herself into trouble trying to be him).
Summer, 2021 - What If? - This animated series was announced back in March, but I was so disinterested I didn't report it; my interest hasn't changed--I never cared for these stories in the comics either and the fact that it's animated makes it even more ancillary to the MCU.
No other Disney+ shows were announced, but clearly others must be in the offing (there was no sign of Kinda Culty's prediction of a Valkyrie show--an odd rumour to begin with).
We also heard nothing about the upcoming New Mutants or a Deadpool sequel, which makes it clear at least the former property is not being folded into the MCU (since it will be released next year). One thing that did come out was that Feige is in full control of the Fox IP--I have no idea why anyone thought this was in question, but if it was, it is no longer.
A final pair of rumours from LofLB: they claim there will be a S.W.O.R.D. show on Hulu and it will include characters from Agents of SHIELD (which seems extremely unlikely); they also said that Keanu Reeves wants to play Adam Warlock (Guardians 3), but others are pushing him to play Moon Night (I think he's far too old for either role).
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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