MCU Theory Files: Falcon and the Winter Soldier

This is the second in a series of rumour collections about specific MCU IP (Black Widow being the first; all will get updates when needed). The intention is to both track and collate scoops, look at the trends, and examine the information. This isn't meant to be encyclopedic, instead it is a curated collected from those scoopers with either good track records or who haven't been fully debunked (along with Reddit/4chan threads that gained significant buzz).

For simplicity's sake I'm using acronyms for the frequent fliers: RW (insider Roger Wardell), CM (Charles Murphy, who runs his own site), D (Daniel RPK, who has a Patreon), TI (The Iluminerdi, who run their own site and are former writers from That Hashtag Show), JC (Jeremy Conrad, who runs his own site), DF (Discussing Film), MS (Mikey Sutton, who uses Geekosity on Facebook), GWW (Geeks World Wide, whose scoopers all seem to have moved on--to The Cinema Spot, TCS, primarily), LotLB (Lords of the Long Box, used here only for their unique source 'the Black Knight'), R (Reddit), and 4C (4chan); I use (AS) to represent the consensus view among the scoopers where applicable; when one of these luminaries is speculating or mentions something they can't confirm, I've added a small "s" to the acronym (eg, CMs). Not all of the above appear on this list, as not all of them have scooped Falcon and the Winter Soldier, but I've included them to illustrate who I pay attention too--occasionally I'll cite someone not on this list (like Screen Rant), but they aren't tracked routinely because they aren't notable for scoops.

Any errors that follow are my own (please let me know so I can fix them); if there are any significant omissions, I'll happily add them.

The Basics

• Confirmed Characters: Falcon, Bucky, Sharon Carter, Zemo, John Walker (US Agent), Battlestar
• Rumoured Characters Appearing: General Ross (AS), Isaiah Bradley (AS), ULTIMATUM (CMs, JCs, R, 4C), Flag-Smasher (CMs/JCs/set photos), Sarah Wilson or Leila Taylor (CMs/set photos), Songbird (CMs/set photos), The Grapplers (CMs/set photos), Ogun (CMs/set photos), Jolt (CMs/Instagram, Sutton), Beetle (Sutton), Fixer (Sutton), Moonstone (Sutton), Swordsman (Sutton), Paladin (Sutton), Ghost (Sutton), Laura Barton (Sutton), Batroc (R/4C), Wolverine (R), Nick Fury (4C),  Diamondback (4C), Miriam Sharpe (4C), Everett Ross (4C), Captain America (4C), Yelena Belova (4C), Emil Blonsky (4C)
• Showrunner: Malcolm Spellman (limited credits, best known for Empire)
• Set Notes: Madripoor (an island state in the Marvel universe) has been unambiguously revealed in set photos (it's heavily associated with Wolverine, an element Chris Claremont added towards the end of his run with the character in 1988; the island was invented for The New Mutants three years prior)
• Official synopsis: "[The leads] team up in a global adventure that tests their abilities--and their patience"

Other Confirmed elements:
John Walker (aka US Agent) is the government approved replacement for Cap (which follows the 1987-89 Marc Gruenwald Replacement storyline). His companion Battlestar was confirmed via Instagram, although he hasn't been formally announced.

Safe assumptions:
1) Walker must fail so that Falcon earns the shield in the aftermath; in that sense, US Agent serves as a foil for Falcon--the one he has to overcome to become the next Cap
2) This makes Zemo primarily a function for Bucky's story, although the nature of their conflict isn't well understood (having the two pair off makes sense, since Zemo used Bucky's past as the Winter Soldier as the lynchpin of his plan in Civil War)

It's worth pointing out that the show is, essentially, a Captain America sequel. All the key characters are from that IP and the story it tells is very much in the spirit of the Russo films.

The Scoops

I like colour-coding, so: blue is via official sources or the trades, green is confirmed, and red is debunked; my comments are confined to brackets and are in pink. Dates are largely representative of when I posted about it, unless those dates are not close to the original.

• (November) Variety reports Malcolm Spellman has been hired to write the series [His designation as writer seems to be a misnomer as Spellman is showrunning the series--he will write, of course, but that's not his primary function]
• (January) 4C: claims Falcon and Bucky are recruited by SHIELD to prevent anarchist group Ultimatum from enforcing a secret plan developed by Hydra to destroy the United Nations. The duo must also deal with John Walker [aka U.S. Agent], a soldier recruited by the U.S. government to become the new Captain America, who slowly goes insane and becomes a threat. The project is described as a “spy thriller” with lots of twists and turns, and it relies heavily on Falcon and Bucky’s dynamic, in the same vein as Lethal Weapon [1987] or 48 Hours [1982]. Emily VanCamp's Sharon Carter will be the team’s contact with SHIELD, and Samuel L. Jackson will make appearances as Nick Fury. William Hurt is also in talks to appear as Secretary Thaddeus Ross [Both CM and JC have said they believe this scoop is authentic; the specifics sound like the 1976 Madbomb plot (see below)]
• (January) R [Essentially repeats the above]: The plot has the two heroes being recruited by the new SHIELD to [stop] the anarchic group Ultimatum. In the series the group wants to implement a plan formerly developed by HYDRA. The leak says the series will feature other characters such as Nick Fury, Agent 13 [Sharon Carter] and General Ross. Another big problem for the [Bucky] and the Falcon: they will also have to deal with John Walker, a soldier recruited by the United States to become a new Captain America, but who will slowly go mad and become a threat.
• (May) 4C: Falcon and Bucky have to work together with a new government-sanctioned Captain America to stop terrorists from destroying the United Nations. New Cap eventually goes psycho and they have to stop him which leads to Sam becoming the new Cap
• (May) Deadline says negotiations to add Sharon Carter and Zemo to the cast are ongoing
• (July) The Wrap reports Derek Kolstad has joined the show as a writer [John Wick writer]
• (July) LotLB Henry Cavill will play US Agent/John Walker [The casting seemed impossible given Cavill's commitments, but I can't say definitively that talks never happened or that Marvel had interest]
• (August) DF says the show will begin filming in October
• (August) LotLB said US Agent will appear on Hulu [As confusing as this seems, at the time they believed Marvel Entertainment (as is) would be integral to Marvel Studios, unaware that the former was about to be erased]
• (October) MS: the show will adapt the Jack Kirby Madbomb story arc, but with Walker in the Cap role
• (November) R: Sam is unsure about taking on the role of Cap; he and Bucky are recruited by SHIELD and work alongside Walker, who becomes the next Cap; Sharon Carter joins them and is a romantic interest for Bucky; turns out Walker is actually Zemo in disguise and he's able to use Bucky's trigger words to revert him to the Winter Soldier; show sets up WandaVision in its conclusion
• (November) 4C: Ross rejects Falcon as Cap, who furiously fights low level crime with Bucky; Sharon Carter goes to bat for Falcon, but is rejected and Walker becomes the new iteration; Zemo plants a chip in Walker's brain that makes him go rogue; Zemo then plants chips on numerous other people with the help of the Rachel Leighton Diamondback; in desperation Ross reaches out to Falcon/Bucky; Miriam Sharpe and Everett Ross are part of the story; Yelena Belova and Emil Blonsky cameos
• (November) CM: speculates a photo of a woman on set is Songbird [See below]
• (December) Deadline reveals that actors Desmond Chiam and Miki Ishikawa have been added to the cast (without including who they will play) [33-year old Australian via Reef Break; 29-year old American via Hit; speculation is that Ishikawa is Jolt, particularly given a tattoo she showed off and then deleted on Instagram; there's no settled view of Chiam]
• (January) R: Wolverine will have a cameo, the show will mention Weapon X, includes the multiverse, and pay homage to X-Men: First Class [This was indirectly debunked by CM below; the latter is also an extremely odd assertion]
• (January) CM: none of the unexpected characters who will appear in the show are mutants
• (January) Daniel (same link): the show will introduce the Thunderbolts
• (February) CM: Isaiah Bradley will appear [His theory based off IMDB information and more of less confirmed by promotional material]
• (February) JC (same link): says ULTIMATUM will appear [His phrasing makes it clear this belief is based on the 4chan post from the previous January]
• (February) Set photo: both JC and CM believe it hints at Flag-Smasher
• (February) R: Ross will reappear to restrict Sam from being the new Cap due to his accords violations [Civil War]. Zemo will attempt to trigger Bucky, who then pretends to be in Hydra mode before emptying the gun and saying he doesn’t do that anymore [The latter shown in the teaser]. We will see some footage of Sam training in the air force Falcon Program. During what seems like a crucial battle, it appears Zemo discovers one last trigger word--a deactivation code, knocking out Bucky instantly and presumably killing him. We then see Sam pick up the shield for the first time since being confronted by Ross.
• (February) CM: reshoots are removing a plot that echoes the pandemic
• (February) R (same link): Sam isn't allowed to be Cap because of the events of Civil War, but trusts US Agent to take over the mantle. US Agent genuinely wants to do a good job and doesn't realize he's part of a bigger plan. Sam and Bucky have to work with Zemo to track down a criminal syndicate called The Alchemists. Zemo is essentially their hostage but he has vital information. They go to Madripoor with him and there they meet Batroc the Leaper and Omega Red. There were other characters that the camera lingered on that might have been easter eggs but I didn't recognize them. Felt like the cantina scene [from Star Wars] but in the MCU. Overall the show feels a lot like Winter Soldier and Mission Impossible movies. Agent 13 [Sharon Carter] and Bucky seem to have a romance. Very flirty vibes. Sam judges Bucky for it and Bucky says, 'Steve dated her like 70 years ago.' Made me laugh. William Hurt [General Ross] is in the show. At least in one episode. Seemed to reference events of Black Widow. Not sure. Zemo escapes from them in a speedboat to end the episode.
• (February) 4C (same link): Agent 13 [Sharon Carter] is leading Sam and Bucky. They are doing missions for the government to repair their reputation after the events of Civil War. Some want Bucky to serve life in prison for his crimes. He's haunted by his past. Publicly he's charming and witty, but when he's alone he is clearly struggling. Very distrusting of authority because he never wants to be used as a weapon again. Agent 13 is the only one he trusts to command him, and says her and Sam 'Out of all of us, you're the most like Steve.' US Agent fights like Cap but hits harder and is more brutal with the way he uses the shield. Sam and Bucky still fight and butt heads but it's with trust and love. They call themselves 'Blip Brothers' when talking to Batroc about where they've been.
• (February) R (same link): The final trigger word was not deactivated in Wakanda because it was never used--it was a worst case failsafe. For this reason, Bucky never remembered the code nor was it in the code word book. There is a hint of romance between Bucky/Sharon, but it’s not fully realized due to EVC’s lack of screentime [Limited by her schedule on The Resident]. The series opens RIGHT after Endgame. No Evans cameo. The pair go to Sam’s family’s house, who haven’t seen him since the Accords [Civil War]. Sam is given an offer to be pardoned for his Accords violations and allowed to keep the shield and mantle if he undergoes the serum procedure. Sam is reluctant and Bucky encourages him to refuse. This leads into Isaiah [Bradley]’s introduction--he shows Sam photos from the serum experiments conducted following Steve’s “death” [in 1945], many of which killed the test subjects. Isaiah is the only survivor. Sam declines the serum and turns in the shield, which is given to US Agent. As he undergoes the serum procedure, it is revealed the serum allows the recipient’s mind to be controlled.
• (March) R [Purporting to be a description of what was shown at the Disney shareholder meeting]: Bucky pays a visit to Zemo in prison, who tries unsuccessfully [to] activate his Winter Soldier programming. Bucky tells him that someone has recreated the Super Soldier Serum. Another clip shows a rally where cheerleaders and a stage were decorated with red, white, and blue Captain America insignia. The announcer introduced the new Captain America and then the camera cut to someone backstage in silhouette with the shield. A montage of action sequences included Zemo fighting in his iconic mask from the comics. It wasn’t clear from the short clip if he was fighting with or against them. Lastly, we saw Bucky approach Sam and discussed that they’re not really friends. More like two guys who had a mutual friend who now need each other.
• (March) CM (same link): posted a set video which he believes shows the Grapplers [Originally Songbird, Titania, Letha, and Poundcakes]; he also talked about set photos showing Walker and Bucky defending a G20 summit
• (April) R [The poster above who referenced EVC's schedule]: Bucky will work with US Agent as part of a government-mandated parole of sorts in exchange for charges against him being dropped. He is, however, highly suspicious of the serum given to US Agent, and starts his own spy work mirroring Widows’s Winter Soldier arc. This leads into the information I gave in the last leak (Bucky warning Sam about the serum). As part of this parole, Bucky also sees a government-mandated therapist who is revealed to be corrupt. He has a few flashback scenes with her in which more of his time as the Winter Soldier is revealed, including him finding out about Steve Rogers’ “death” and momentarily breaking programming, as well as him being ordered to kill Sam and other members of the Falcon program. Bucky winds up deciding to go on the run rather than work with US Agent and be complicit in further danger to society. Sam and Bucky go to an airport together undercover and there’s a funny scene involving Sam’s wings and Bucky’s arm going through TSA. There’s a big reveal involving Steve opening a training academy in the alternate timeline. Really cool team-up scene with Sam and Isaiah once Sam takes back the shield, with the two of them passing the shield back and forth. Zemo, Sam, and Bucky will team up before it’s revealed that Zemo was involved in the creation of the mind altering serum used on US Agent. Battlestar will turn against US Agent after seeing him brainwashed and go rogue. The Madbomb rumors were true, but those scenes are certainly being cut and possibly being replaced with a new side villain for US Agent and Bucky to take on [This echoes CM comments about a removed plot element above]. Each episode will have a post-credit scene!
• (May) CM believes Wakandans will appear in the show because Zemo killed T'Chaka [The theory's evidence coming from stunt doubles being listed for the show on IMDB]
• (May) JC (same link): says Marvel is building up to an Ultimatum event (2009 Jeph Loeb crossover), claiming this comes from production grids he's seen [This is only tangentially attached to Falcon and the Winter Soldier, but given the 'ultimatum' reference seemed worth including here. LotLB debunks this below, including the idea that it comes from a production grid]
• (May) LotLB debunks JC's Ultimatum theory [Showing where JC got the information]
• (May) CM publishes a bunch of set photos that, to his mind, show connections to Hickman's Secret Wars (2015-16) as well as Marc Gruenwald's Captain America run (1985-95); he also believes Ayo (of the Dora Milaje) will appear [Based on IMDB and a stunt double's Instagram]
• (May) Hill (same link) believes Erin Kellyman [coming off Life] is playing one of the Grapplers in the show
• (May) DF says Erin Kellyman has a substantial role (without knowing what it is)
• (June) CM speculates a set photo could hint at Ogun appearing [Yet another Wolverine easter egg tied to the Madripoor setting]
• (July) THR reports that nine days of shooting in the Czech Republic is left for the show which will be completed in the fall [See below]
• (July) CM speculates that set videos show that Kellyman is Songbird [If this is true he's debunking his November speculation, which showed a Caucasian woman with a mohawk rather than a woman of colour with a full head of curly red hair--if Kellyman is playing a Grappler her look is far more suited to redheads Gladiatrix, Cowgirl, or Battleaxe]
• (July) THR says sources indicate the show will be filming in Georgia in August [It remains unclear if this is additional shooting beyond the nine days mentioned above, or if the show needed nine days in the Czech Republic plus additional work in Atlanta (assuming that the sources are correct)]

Analysis

This is a huge amount of information to sift through, but it includes a lot of repetition, undoubtedly aided by how obviously it borrows from The Replacement storyline. Because of that, it also makes speculation easy as well.

Let's deal first with the plot of the Madbomb story in the comics. The titular object was a device that induced a state of temporary insanity, causing ordinary people to become berserkers. The first device was mid-sized and affected an entire city, but there was a larger one that had enough power to infect the entire country. This seems to be what Murphy claims is being written out of the show as its seen as too similar to the current pandemic. If this is true it's yet another example of how risk-adverse the MCU is.

The idea of Walker going insane is straight out of the comics and I feel like the variations of that idea shown above (Zemo in disguise as Walker, or the latter being mindcontrolled) are simply alternative ways at arriving at the same point. Walker has to fail, but his failure needs an excuse so as not to demonize the character. There would narrative synergy if Walker was conditioned ala Bucky to serve Zemo (or the government's) whims. This would also give Bucky a very specific angle in regards to Walker and make him inclined to forgive his actions since he himself went through the same thing as the Winter Soldier. As such, I think the general idea is plausible, even if much of what we have above is probably just fan speculation.

Also from The Replacement storyline comes ULTIMATUM, whose goals are anti-nationalistic (so obvious foils for Captain America)--it engages in terrorist activities to promote that goal. I think Marvel would be very careful in avoiding anything that touches on this (risk-adverse, after all), so if this group exists in the show I'm guessing they would have a slightly different goal (what that would be, I'm not sure--anti-government is a safer route to take). That said, General Ross and whoever else installs Walker is already present providing a foil for Falcon's storyline.

I wonder how much (if at all) Zemo will reflect on his actions in Civil War, since he's the reason the Avengers split and (at least according to Tony Stark) failed in Infinity War and the Blip occurred. Unlike many other Marvel villains, Zemo was never presented as pure evil (although he clearly believes in revenge and that the ends justify the means). Where does he go from here?

Looking Forward

The show is a smart approach to giving Falcon the role of Captain America. This has been attempted in the comics several times, but never worked since Steve was around or returning and because Falcon tends to be handed the role (as he is in Endgame). Having him earn it means there's a much better chance fans will embrace the idea (this approach, in my opinion, is the only way to make successor characters succeed). In general, however, I think it's better to let iconic characters go and work with something different (in this case, I think it's more interesting for Falcon to remain Falcon rather than trying to fill someone else's shoes--that's the twist I'd like for him, to earn the shield, but keep his own identity).

I have no idea what Marvel plans to do with Bucky, but he's a perfect candidate for The Thunderbolts. I feel like he's already gone through a full character arc, so he needs to evolve forward and that could be as an experienced elder statesmen with a leadership role. He's a good addition to the show because the two lead characters had great chemistry in Civil War (and are the most prominent remaining parts of the Cap-IP).

Much like Black Widow, I expect we'll get hints or a reveal of The Thunderbolts. The show is the most obvious one to foreshadow the group, although its exact composition and formation remain up in the air. I'm unsure what the MCU wants to do with them, as I've never read the comics--presumably they function as a kind of Suicide Squad for Marvel, although I don't know what stories Feige wants to tell with them (perhaps undercutting DC is reason enough). I went through some of the specifics we might expect via the Black Widow article, so I won't repeat them here.

What do I think overall? I've liked the idea of the show from the beginning, although how its executed matters more than the idea. Unlike Black Widow the basic story here isn't as obvious; it's also not a prequel, giving it stakes. The task ahead of Marvel is a tough one because, as mentioned, Falcon has never really worked as Captain America in the comics and I don't think Falcon is going to be a focal point in the future regardless (in terms of getting his own films)--looking at the IP that's planned and what's coming up, there isn't room for a Falcon-as-Cap movie, but a season on his own show is possible. I expect Falcon to to be part the Avengers, in whatever form they take. Bucky, as mentioned, seems like a Thunderbolts member (as would be John Walker).

The next installment of this series will focus on WandaVision (how quickly it comes out is hard to say--hopefully a bit sooner than the gap between this and Black Widow).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)