One of the great myths of post-pandemic releases is that films have performed below expectations because of it. Unfortunately for proponents of this theory, Spider-Man 3 (released amidst fears of the omicron variant) has blown it out of the water. The film is performing exactly like a normal, pre-pandemic big budget release, which lends credence to my belief that the general underwhelming box office is due to the poor quality of 2021 releases. Spider-Man 3 is already the best performing film of the year, so what has it brought to the table that others haven't? A mix of things: respectful nostalgia (possibly to be imitated by other IP--ala Michael Keaton returning as Batman--rather than subverting expectations ala The Last Jedi, the two recent Terminator films, Ghostbusters 2016, etc), avoiding politics in its marketing, not attacking the fanbase, and (at least anecdotally) being a competent film (MauLer gave it the same score as The Suicide Squad, 5/10, but I have yet to see it myself). Admittedly, the movie is in a unique position in being able to interconnect two prior film franchises, but to do so without pissing off those fans is incredibly rare (ie the mishandled Witcher). Respecting fans isn't enough, as can be seen with Bill & Ted Face the Music and Ghostbusters: Afterlife, but it's the most obvious way to keep the core audience happy and buying merch. The industry's hackneyed writing is letting audiences down, but I doubt Spidey's success means immediate relief is in sight.
Spoilers ahead: I haven't been watching Hawkeye, but I did hear that Kate Bishop and Echo both defeated the Kingpin in their first encounter, which is a painful waste of the character--you have to build villains up before you defeat them (Daredevil season one spent twelve episodes establishing how tough he was before the final confrontation; Thanos wins in Infinity War before he's defeated; etc), but the opportunity is now squandered. When tertiary characters can beat the Kingpin in their first encounter, his potency as a villain is undercut. I also heard that they re-wrote the purpose of Black Widow's sacrifice in Endgame (rather than saving Barton and his family, it's for...Yelena?), which hurts that film even more (Phase Four has been shitting all over the ending of Phase Three). It's this kind of thing--poorly conceived and executed storytelling--that has driven me largely out of the MCU.
I've steered clear of watching The Wheel of Time, as everything I've read and heard reinforces that I wouldn't enjoy it. The second season is already filming (or has completed filming), so like the forgotten Shannara series, more is to come, but I believe the IP is doomed--not only is it dwarfed by The Witcher in general interest, but there's no secondary resonance with merchandise (unlike with Dune or Witcher, or in the past with Game of Thrones--Robert Jordan's series continues to collect dust on the shelves).
Speaking of The Witcher, I've tried watching season two and, as expected, the terrible writing from season one continues. It's even poorer than the previous season--Lauren Hissrich has Neil Breen's understanding of story/character coherence. The show went out of its way to piss off pre-existing fans with a bizarre and nonsensical portrayal of Eskel, in addition to confused iterations of Lambert and Vesemir (what accent Kim Bodnia is attempting I have no idea, but I want him to stop). What really matters for The Witcher is how casuals receive it and that's not yet clear--the anecdotal evidence is trickling in and hard numbers are far away, but I think this season will Last Jedi-away original fans of the IP (the usual YT suspects, like xLetalis, all agree the first episode is the best and that the season as a whole is disappointing). The only positive from the Netflix adaptation is that it's introduced new people to the IP and while I think Sapkowski's books are a mixed bag (just like Stephen King, his older stuff is better), having a chance to experience the games for the first time is well worth it for those who take the plunge.
Speaking of hard numbers, public Nielsen ratings from mid-November (15th-21st) are finally available and illustrate that the appetite for fantasy is strong even when the offerings are weak (the number is minutes watched):
- Wheel of Time (Nov.19) 1,163 (2nd overall behind Red Notice)
- Tiger King (Nov.17) 685
- Great British Baking Show (Nov.19) 513
- You (Oct.15) 489
- Narcos: Mexico (Nov.5) 428
- Cowboy Beebop (Nov.19) 414 (cancelled before its run completed)
- Big Mouth (Nov.5) 319
- Maid (Oct.1) 302
- Locke & Key (Oct.22) 293
- Hellbound (Nov.19) 272
We are reliant on Nielsen and quarterly reports because the various streaming services routinely lie about their numbers otherwise. Hawkeye had not yet premiered so it can't be directly compared. It's almost sad how desperate fans are for something to fill The Game of Thrones void.
We can, briefly, talk about Parrot Analytics, which uses a Byzantine system to try to assess overall impact by measuring available data (social media, pirating, etc), but they don't explain how they weight their data, making their results difficult assess--you can see how it varies from places like Reelgood in terms of rankings (the PA numbers are here for December last week, while RG is this week--it's not perfect, but the best I could do):
- Spongbob (PA), Hawkeye (RG)
- South Park (PA), The Witcher (RG)
- SNL (PA) The Grinch (RG)
- My Hero Academia (PA) Yellowstone (RG)
- The Wheel of Time (PA) Elf (RG)
- Game of Thrones (PA) Spider-Man 2002 (RG)
- The Flash (PA) The Wheel of Time (RG)
- Sesame Street (PA) Die Hard (RG)
- Hawkeye (PA) The Unforgiveable (RG)
- The Walking Dead (PA) Station Eleven (RG)
Reelgood's trending TV shows has a completely different order, which is a little hard to parse with the above. According to PA, the US ranking is quite different from worldwide:
- The Wheel of Time
- Hawkeye
- Arcane
- The Witcher
- The Mandalorian
- Titans
- Stranger Things
- Cobra Kai
- La Casa De Pape
- Ted Lasso
There are some oddities here too given PA's list above, but with regional bias it's a bit more understandable. Nielsen's hard numbers are a full month behind, making it difficult to assess these. When you cut out the movies and reruns, the two agree that (in different order) Hawkeye, The Witcher, and The Wheel of Time are (or were) near the top of new streaming shows. Whether any will have legs once they are over remains to be seen (I doubt it).
Beyond that, I thought it was interesting to look at how PA sees the top-20 streaming shows of 2021 (despite posting it ten days before the year was over):
- Stranger Things
- The Mandalorian
- WandaVision
- Cobra Kai
- Titans
- Ted Lasso
- Star Wars: The Clone Wars
- Lucifer
- The Witcher
- The Handmaid's Tale
- The Expanse
- Falcon and the Winter Soldier
- The Boys
- Loki
- Star Trek: Discovery
- You
- Animaniacs
- Money Heist
- Harley Quinn
- Doom Patrol
Broadly speaking the list seems fine, but there are some oddities (Titans at #5? Loki behind Falcon? Anyone watching Discovery?). The fact that Hawkeye and other recent releases aren't here isn't a big deal--they don't have months to collect views like shows released earlier. Valid or not, it's interesting and something to look back on in the future.
One trend that's continues is a persistent interest in Norse-inspired productions. Historical shows/films aren't unusual, but the focus on Vikings isn't typically this prominent--beginning back, at least, to the History channel's Vikings in 2013. It seems antipodal to current trends given the focus/casting. We're getting a feature film in this milieu with The Northman in April, which may or may not be good, but how it performs will be interesting to watch. I feel like at least some of this sustained production is because of how closely it echoes fantasy narratives and the (unsatisfied) appetite that exists for them.
This article was written by Peter Levi
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