MCU News & Notes

Reviews of Thor 4 were surprisingly tepid and the audience score seems to back that up. How is the film doing? It's struggling--I never thought it would make Doctor Strange 2 money, but I wonder if it will even make The Batman money (770; through July 19th it's at 511). Combining the wooden acting of Natalie Portman and Tessa Thompson doesn't help, but it seems like what hurt it most is the childish humour throughout (Batman & Robin is the comparison I've heard) and making Thor even dumber. What does this mean for the future of the Thor franchise? It's as unclear as Phase Five. I see no hope for it on the horizon, but things are changing internally at Disney and it's hard to imagine it getting worse.

Ms. Marvel opened horrendously according to Nielsen, placing tenth with its first episode (249), well behind fellow Disney offering Kenobi (682) and miles behind Stranger Things (4226). I've heard it's better than prior MCU outings, but given that all the D+ shows have been bad, that's damning with faint praise (it's second episode didn't make the charts). One wonders if we'll ever get something truly engaging on streaming from the MCU at this point (I imagine some are hopeful for Dardevil, but given he's being shoehorned into an Echo show no one wants, I suspect he'll get the Hawkeye treatment and lose much of the goodwill he brings from Netflix)--until there are major changes with who is in charge creatively, it's difficult to imagine.

Sutton refloated the old Small Screen rumour about replacing Amber Heard in Aquaman 2 with Emilia Clarke. I don't understand the desire to use Clarke, who has failed at everything outside of Game of Thrones, but that doesn't mean someone at WB isn't in her corner (perhaps as Sutton suggests, it's her supposed chemistry with Jason Momoa from 11 years ago). I think, assuming WB wants Mera to be a significant character, there's plenty of better options to use.

The WB leaked a story that the Snyder Cut movement's social media presence included bots and dummy accounts to the tune of 13% (which doesn't seem significant to me). This was put out to, presumably, convince Discovery not to bring Snyder back and I certainly agree with that (even if my reasons might differ). The group agitating for Snyder seems to have shrunk after the cut was released (no doubt hurt by comments from Snyder about the fans, the shenanigan's of Ray Fisher (cf and cf), and actions of Amber Heard and Ezra Miller--the latter still on the loose). Is it enough to reconsider Jody's Alex Jones-esque theory about what was behind all this? Maybe Snyder is that petty, but maybe not.

I haven't talked about Amazon's Lord of the Rings series since March, but with the advertising campaign in full swing it's worth re-visiting the upcoming train wreck. Amazon seems to understand it's failed to appeal to the core audience of the books or Jackson films, so they are using all the buzz words meant to engage casuals instead (including a Last Jedi meme in the teaser--killing the past). I was baffled when I discovered the show is based on, not the full Silmarillon or unfinished tales, but The Appendixes from LOTR (!). This makes it virtually an original story--with the showrunners and executives involved showing no comprehension of the IP whatsoever. There's a very transparent attempt to imitate elements of Game of Thrones in shots we've seen (undoubtedly to appease Jeff Bezos, who wanted a show as successful as it was), but the two IP are tonally different (GOT owes a lot to historical fiction and Michael Moorcock, with the latter being antipodal to LOTR). For such an expensive show, the sets and customs look like the cheap fair we got from The Wheel of Time. Can it succeed? Popular taste is hard to predict (the success of Jurassic Park proves that), but for the sake of the IP I hope not.

This article was written by Peter Levi

Marvel News & Notes

Top Gun soared past Doctor Strange 2 (the latter still leads in foreign gross, but it will never hit a billion, which was surely the expectation for the very expensive tentpole film). Jurassic World Domination, which I've seen and is terrible, will probably beat The Batman (having done better in foreign markets). Lightyear might be the biggest bomb of the year--I have no idea what Pixar or Disney were thinking, although like most failures it held up better domestically. Will the renewal of Bob Chapek at Disney result in the MCU halting down the path to irrelevance? It's difficult to say, but if so the results are likely 2-3 years away (apparently not soon enough to save The Fantastic Four, but the X-Men aren't yet locked in).

Speaking of Chapek, there's speculation that Ms. Marvel was buried behind Kenobi due to corporate politics (the inference cf, with Chapek behind it's reshoots and his opponents fronting the former). Whether that's true or not, it has made almost no impact (ratings are some time away, but expected to be low). Kenobi, on the other hand, has been typically divisive in the increasingly small Star Wars fanbase.

Sony's casting continues to trend away from the MCU's, with Madame Web apparently adding Emma Roberts as Spider-Gwen (despite her age, 31). This is one casting where race-swapping wasn't an option, but picking an established actress like Roberts veers from the Disney trend.

Before I read anything about it I assumed the sequel to Willow would suck (because modern adaptations almost always do), but I had no idea that Erin Kellyman (Falcon and the Winter Soldier et al) was in a key role--you'd think they'd want someone with acting talent, but apparently not.

This is ancillary, but at least one Amazon executive involved in The Wheel of Time disaster has now exited. It's far too late to rescue the IP, whose second season was filmed before the reaction to the first, nor is she the principal reason for its issues, but it's at least a step in the right direction. I don't expect Amazon to go through the house cleaning WB is currently in the midst of and Disney has started--at least, not yet.

I've been surprised that many of my younger friends (30 and under) are unfamiliar with the term Mary Sue. I had no idea it had fallen out of use and there doesn't seem to be any new term to replace it. I wonder if this is because so many leads in popular novels and entertainment are Mary Sues, ergo they don't understand the issue. Speaking of those reading efforts, I've wondered if I should write about my frustrating attempts to find good, new authors in the fantasy field--it seems out of the purview of this blog, but I may go through it in a separate article.

The industry has finally turned on Ezra Miller, capped by a Rolling Stone article (about the state of a woman and her children on the Miller ranch) and then Variety taking their buried story (surely at the behest of WB) in 2020 about the assault of an Icelandic woman along with the newer story of a German woman with whom there was a 'friends with benefits' arrangement for a time. Miller still hasn't be fired, nor The Flash put on hold, but it does seem inevitable at this point.

This article was written by Peter Levi

MCU News & Notes

Doctor Strange 2 has hit 932 at the box office (399 domestic, 532 foreign)--is that enough to convince Disney and Kevin Feige that everything is okay? I suspect it is. For the moment it's the #1 film this year, albeit it's dwarfed by Spider-Man 3 and behind the foreign gross of last year's No Time to Die and F9. As I've mentioned before, to the degree that it still works, the MCU works domestically--the 2021 the Marvel/Sony films were #1-#4 with the unwatchable Eternals at #6. You'd call this good were it not for the fact that they badly trail their Phase Three predecessors (making Ant-Man and the Wasp money). What's interesting is that Top Gun has already beat it domestically (409), so the domestic pull that it has can't hit the earlier MCU notes (which is ultimately down to bad writing, the bane of Phase Four).

More Nielsen Ratings: Moon Knight continued to imperceptibly climb in episode five (681; 3rd, 4th) and the finale (715; 3rd, 3rd), albeit the overall numbers are low. Post-finale it dropped steeply to 289 (9th and out) and then fell off the chart entirely, as it lacks legs. Ms. Marvel is now airing, but ratings for it will take awhile (it's non-existent on Google Trends, buried beneath Kenobi and other things). The question remains: when, if ever, will Disney+ change? There's no sign of reality in sister IP Star Wars, the other intended subscriber engine for the service, so I don't imagine Marvel (which performs better) has any intention of changing.

How bizarre has the Ezra Miller story become? Context for The Flash star (these aren't all the highlights, just the ones I think most related/egregious):

• April 6, 2020 - In Iceland a video surfaced of Miller putting his hands around a woman's neck and pushing her to the ground; there was no fallout from WB and the public was mute about the incident (Icelandic authorities declined to investigate)
• March 28, 2022 - Arrested in Hawaii after an altercation with patrons at a karaoke bar; Ezra subsequently paid a fine
• March 29, 2022 - The couple who lived with Miller filed a restraining order due to alleged threats made; the order was dropped mid-April
• April 6, 2022 - An emergency meeting at WB about Miller occurs and it's reported that Miller had frequent meltdowns during the filming of The Flash
• April 19, 2022 - Miller was taken into custody after throwing a chair and hitting a woman during a private get together; Miller paid a fine as a result
• May 16, 2022 - Miller steals music from rapper Ghais Guevara by posting it without permission; a plan to file a court order is stopped when Miller removes the link to the music
• June 8, 2022 - Legal documents are filed by the parents of Tokata Iron Eyes, intended to protect her from a variety of allegations; Tokata denies the accusations, but neither she nor Miller can be found to be served with the court summons
• June 14, 2022 - Miller posts a number of memes to Instagram before deleting the account entirely
• June 15, 2022 - The mother of a 12-year old (not Tokata) filed for an order of protection from Miller

The accusations in the Tokata case are terrible (cf), with the 12-year old's utterly bizarre (cf--Miller screaming about cultural appropriation and brandishing a firearm, among other colourful elements), and while nothing has been proven, vanishing when the court is looking for you is a terrible choice (as is responding to it with memes). It's hard not to think about the unsubstantiated rumours that Miller suffered abuse as a youth, but even if that's true it doesn't excuse the conduct.

To this point WB has done nothing in regards to Miller and, overall, the public backlash had been muted. Is this the last straw, or is WB's investment in his film so heavy that they will stick with it no matter what? Regardless, this is yet another Zack Snyder actor who has caused problems for the studio (joining Ray Fisher and Amber Heard). What's far more important is that Tokata is found and can be helped (if needed).

One of the things I've seen discussed is if a shift in the cultural pendulum is at hand. I don't mean how life functions for those of us grinding though it (higher costs of living with no compensatory changes in policy or wages), but for the wealthy establishment, which has been entrenched in a certain ideology for years. The pendulum always swings back and forth and the debate is over whether things like the firing of Felicia Sonmez or Johnny Depp winning his trial are signs that things are beginning to move. I don't know what the answer is, as in each case you can argue that only the specifics are dictating the results. I wonder how much a Sonmez matters when Taylor Lorenz is still employed--perhaps nothing has changed.

This article was written by Peter Levi

MCU News & Notes

Let's take a look at Doctor Strange 2's box office (via Box Office Mojo):

• Opening Fri-Sun: 185 domestic (265 international)
• Second Fri-Sun: 88 domestic (47.5%)
• Current Total: 723 (310 domestic, 413 international)

How did the opener compare to Spider-Man 3? That film opened 260 domestically and 341 internationally, so close to 30%/25% lower. Spidey had legs, but Doctor Strange 2 hasn't had that kind of impact (even if some people were satisfied with the keys dangled in front of them). Will it hit a billion? I don't think so, but it will pass another underperformer in The Batman (768). Will Marvel make any serious changes to fix their issues? There's no sign of that yet (my expectation is just more and more memberberries, as they haven't yet hit their own Netflix Armageddon). It's getting harder and harder for me to get anecdotal feedback on MCU productions, as fewer people I know go to see them (the Doctor Strange 2 count is currently at one).

One other statistical note: I've noticed for awhile that Phase Four has generally performed better in the US than elsewhere, and you can see that trend here as well, although the difference is more subtle than in the case of Shang-Chi. This is worth keeping in mind when I discuss Nielsen numbers below, since those are exclusively American.

Midnight's Edge has an interesting breakdown of what they believe the lengthy re-shoots for the film were intended to do. According to their sources, they were to fix America Chavez and to provide an arc for Doctor Strange (who apparently had none in the rough cut). The former idea matches rumours during the re-shoots themselves (cf, although those rumours also claimed they were adding more cameos, which was not true), and certainly the latter would explain why even in the released film Strange is a passenger in his own movie. Despite the changes, the reception of Chavez has been what you'd expect given the low caliber of Phase Four writing.

Sutton has claimed for quite some time (cf) that John Krasinski will be Reed Richards and doubled down on that point recently (his fate in Doctor Strange 2 notwithstanding). He claims Krasinski pulled out of an extension for his Amazon show to take the job, although Sutton is unsure if he will direct the film or not (given that Jon Watts has walked). It's hard to be excited by the idea given how poorly the character was treated in Doctor Strange 2.

Moon Knight's second episode went up in the Nielsen's ratings (to 608 minutes watched, which put it 3rd vs other original shows and 8th overall in a very depressed streaming market). This is higher than the bulk of Hawkeye's episodes, but nowhere near it's two highest viewed. The third episode was a touch higher (638, 3rd and 7th), and about the same for its fourth (630, 4th and 7th), but nowhere near peak Hawkeye (which was nowhere near either Loki or WandaVision). In a lot of ways tracking Nielsen is trivial (given the limitations and the fact that other metrics clearly demonstrate the show's struggles), but I think it's good to have the numbers to compare.

I've seen the She-Hulk trailer, which I thought was awful, but is consistent with Phase Four, so if you've enjoyed it thus far, the show will likely work for you.

One of the creators I used to watch periodically was Angry Joe (his Doctor Strange 2 review is linked above). He made his career as a video game reviewer, but years ago added movie and show reviews to broaden his audience. Looking at Social Blade, up through July of 2020, this strategy worked very well, but since then, outside occasional spikes from major game reviews, his subscriptions have flatlined and views have been on a rollercoaster well below his peak. I suspect the issue for Joe is that he tends to like everything and plenty of other people already fill that niche--his show/film analysis isn't deep so there's nothing to sink your hooks into. This material is simply content, so there isn't a ton of pressure for him to improve on it, but he'd be far better off if there meaningful debates between he and his buddies.

Thanks to a friend of mine I was able to answer my speculation about Kamran disappearing off of Youtube: turns out he's simply been too busy to make the rounds (as a working screenwriter, that's an option he has that few other personalities have).

This article was written by Peter Levi

MCU News & Notes

The Nielsen ratings for Moon Knight have begun arriving and the first episode faired miserably. Keeping in mind the limitations of these numbers (American-only, limited sources), here's how it performed in context (the number is minutes watched):

Bridgerton 3,202 (#1 overall)

The Last Kingdom 714 (#3 overall)

Is it Cake? 607 (#7 overall)

Inventing Anna 452

Moon Knight 418

It didn't even crack the top-ten, earning itself the worst opener for an MCU show to date (it's half the viewership of Hawkeye's debut, cf). This is, at least in part, a result of the poor quality of Marvel shows to date. Just like with Hawkeye and Loki, the show is less about the protagonist than it is their female co-star (in this case Layla). This bait and switch approach has not gone over well and perhaps Echo is an attempt to at least be honest about their focus (Daredevil is in the show to create an audience, but it's not pretending to be a Daredevil show).

Buried in a recent Sutton story (link below) is that Moon Knight is only getting one season, which I can't recall hearing before (but fits the inability of Disney+ to generate enough interest for more than that). I really wonder what you do with Disney+ characters your audience knows nothing about--they can cameo in movies, sure, but making a full transition is going to be very hard (essentially they will have to be re-introduced in film).

Here's our Google Trends data (which is up-to-date, unlike the ratings), where Moon Knight peaked slightly higher than Hawkeye, but unlike that show steadily declined as it went on, whereas cameos in Hawkeye (memberberries!) boosted the latter a little during the run. It's expected that Ms. Marvel will tank even lower, but it's not clear what lessons (if any) Feige has taken from this other than more memberberries.

Jon Watts has walked away from directing Fantastic Four. His stated reason (wanting a break from superhero films) seems like PR and I believe he's pushing for more money after No Way Home rather than some sort of creative disagreement with Marvel (if he could put up with Feige/Pascal for three Spider-Man films, there's nothing he can't put up with).

Speaking of the Fantastic Four, it's funny how the John Krasinski situation has unfolded. None of the rumours about him picked-up on how he was used in Doctor Strange (we also had a Sutton faceplant for that film, as his Tom Cruise as Iron Man rumour, an old Daniel rumour, crashed and burned). As I'd suggested back in February, appearances like Krasinski's is something Marvel let slip to try to advertise the film, but given his usage (god knows what they were thinking) it's just going to irritate fans Last Jedi-style (it also explains why Emily Blunt kept turning down the offer).

Possible spoiler here, so skip this paragraph if you want to be unspoiled for Doctor Strange 2: going back to scoopers, in 2020 a 4chan post claimed Charlize Theron passed on the role of Clea, which is something Daniel subsequently repeated. Whether that 4chan post was accurate at the time or not, in the end it proved to be incorrect. Theron is a great actress, but as we've seen in Phase Four, that won't shine through crappy material. I also think Theron is far too old to play the role, but that's another matter entirely.

These photos (there are more, I just picked one) of Taika, his wife, and Tessa Thompson making out came out last May. I hadn't bothered addressing it because on the surface it's purely salacious, but there are two things that have to be said:

1. There's no other evidence this is why Tessa was cast in her role for Ragnarok (she fits the casting pattern of Phase Four and she's not the first actor in the MCU who can't act)
2. This is obviously problematic--directors should not make out with their actors (how consensual can it ever be when Taika controls her screen time and role in the film?); Hollywood is never consistent so there was no serious backlash to this occurring, but that doesn't change the fact that there's no scenario where a boss making out with their employee is ethical

Something that doesn't get discussed enough is Marvel's habit of not properly paying creators for their work--this isn't unique to Marvel, but it does them no credit (WotC does the same thing--Jeff Grubb wasn't consulted for the new Planescape setting, nor were Margaret Weis & Tracy Hickman for Dragonlance). Feige likes to pay lip service to creators, but nothing more apparently, and this may be one reason why he ignores classic stories in favour of current ones.

LotLB, from two unnamed sources (therefore presumably not including their old source 'The Black Knight', who I believe was an employee at Marvel Entertainment or else had direct access to one), claim a Silver Surfer Disney+ show is on-tap. This is a bizarre choice, given that Silver Surfer should be effects-heavy (and thus, better suited to a film). It's also a sharp contrast to Sutton's 2020 scoops that it would be a film, with Surfer beginning as a villain. Sutton still believes the character (and Galactus) are headed towards an Annihilation storyline.

The sequel to The Batman was given the go ahead, which presumably means Matt Reaves agreed to make repairs. About the only thing I feel sure of is the run time will be shorter. It will also apparently be constrained to its own pocket universe while the rest of the DCEU is supposed to be much more interconnected, which gives me hope we'll get a good Batman from someone else.

I saw The Northman and, while an interesting and distinctive film, it's a disappointment. I feel like too much material was stuffed into the film whose pacing is slow and whose storyline gets frequently diverted by extraneous elements. The film can't quite decide what it is--a historical epic or staying true to a saga--some of those elements coming across as unintentionally hilarious.

Something may have changed the relationship between Pasha and Midnight's Edge (cf), who hasn't appeared on their shows in weeks. I realize this is largely trivia, and Pasha seems to maintain a good relationship with Doomcock (who I don't keep tabs on--Star Wars is dead and that's largely what he covers), but it does mean a voice I used to hear I'm not hearing and he's one of the few who doesn't just parrot the same talking points. Is it drama? Is it coincidence? It's not clear.

This article was written by Peter Levi

Marvel News & Notes

Some fans are upset that Ms. Marvel's power set is changing for her Disney+ show. I've seen two kinds of complaints: one is related to a Muslim using magic (which is a religious issue I won't address here), and the other is that it's not faithful to the IP. While I sympathize with a desire to follow the source material, I think the change was inevitable with Mister Fantastic on his way to the MCU (duplicating their power sets is not a good idea). Broadly I prefer direct adaptations, but I don't object to the change in principal because this isn't a proven IP (the comics always fail, the video game underperformed, etc), so tweaking on several levels was necessary anyway (whether the specific change will work is a completely different question, but the show had already pissed off the IP's fans with casting, and Marvel seems focused on casuals anyway).

We've learned that there won't be a Hawkeye season two. Just like with WandaVision, there wasn't one specifically planned to begin with, however, there would be if it had been more successful. Viewership of Hawkeye was low (anecdotally none of my friends have seen it and I only know one person who has), which likely means no solo outings for Kate Bishop either. One positive is that fewer people witnessed how poorly Kingpin was portrayed, creating the opportunity for that to be fixed in Echo, although I don't expect it to be. By itself the lack of another season doesn't mean much, but the cumulative context continues to be that Phase Four is floundering. What Marvel needs is a strong Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4, although what's best for fans is for both to struggle in the hopes we get a change of course (my guess is the former will do well, but the latter could be in trouble).

One piece of DC news that came out of the Amber Heard/Johnny Depp trial is that current DC head Walter Hamada tried to replace Amber Heard with Emelia Clarke (!) in Aquaman 2. Clarke, like some other Game of Throne's costars, has failed in everything outside that show, so she's only an improvement by not having personal issues that are public. This news has drawn conspiracy theories (cf) that Heard will be replaced in reshoots, but I seriously doubt Discovery wants to spend more money on Aquaman 2, a film that I think will hit the same brick wall of Venom 2 (in that the success of the first was something of a fluke & there's limited interest in a sequel).

Speaking of DC, Sutton reports that because The Batman underperformed, WB is expecting director Matt Reaves to make artistic changes for a sequel. The metrics indicate women were the main demographic that ignored the film, which is interesting given that Robert Pattison was picked to appeal to that audience. It also illustrates that Zoe Kravtiz isn't a female draw either (which is less of a surprise, but given how popular Catwoman is, is added proof she was also a poor casting choice). I doubt Reaves will want to change his artistic vision, and I'd still argue the cast is too lackluster to save his slice of DC. If I were Discovery I'd wash my hands of it and reboot Batman (yes again--these films should sleepwalk to a billion dollars--the appetite for the character hasn't died).

I'm curious to see how Black Adam performs in October. We know that having Dwayne Johnson in a film doesn't guarantee success and, as someone who was heavily active in comics in the past, I'd never even heard of Black Adam until talk about the film began (admittedly I was a Marvel guy, but I read DC in the 80s). WB has failed selling lesser known IP (Shazam, Birds of Prey, and The Suicide Squad), leaning on their iconic characters (Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman, and Joker). Will this change with Black Adam? I have my doubts.

I haven't gone through Sony's Marvel projects in about a year, so let's update how things have changed:

Released/Filming

• Venom 2 (Oct) - Made almost 40% less than its predecessor--all the losses were worldwide (it was an equally solid if unspectacular success domestically)
• Morbius (Apr) - Bombed across the board
• Kraven the Hunter - Currently filming, but has an unappealing release date (Jan/23)

Production

• Venom 3 (Dec) - Amy Pascal said they were in the planning stages for it
• Madame Web (Feb) - Dakota Johnson hired to star; Sydney Sweeney hired in an unknown role (Mar)

No News

• Nightwatch - Last updated October, 2018
• Sinister Six - Last updated when Pascal said the project was 'alive' in December, 2018
• Roberto Orci project - Updated March, 2020
• Silver & Black - Updated April, 2020
• Jackpot - Updated May, 2020
• Olivia Wilde project (believed to be Spider-Woman) - Radio silent since August, 2020
• Silk (TV) - No updates since June, 2021

Technically Into the Spider-Verse is not part of the SMU, but it's worth noting that it's sequel is planned to release in 2023. The animated spinoffs appear to be dead (assuming Silk is not one of them; nothing official has been said since 2019 and the people producing them are instead busy making the sequel, so it's likely their appearance depends on how Part Two is received). While no one seems to care, Into was not a big hit at the box office and I'm curious to see how its sequel performs.

That aside, what can we make of all this? For one, Amy Pascal's stake in the Spider-Man IP is so strong that being fired from Sony doesn't keep her out of it. Beyond that, Sony's quality of writing for their films is just as bad as Marvel Phase Four, so the odds of any of these projects being good is very small. Of the 'no news' category, I think there's no chance that Nightwatch, Jackpot, or Pascal's Sinister Six will ever appear (just as Silk and Silver & Black did not, at least as originally conceived). If Silver Sable is in Madame Web, then that might be an attempt to launch her into a team-up film with Black Cat...maybe, if Sony is actually trying to plan things out. There are rumours that Black Cat will appear in Spider-Man 4, but whether that precludes her from debuting in Sony films we don't know yet.

I can't claim to understand it, but there is no stopping the group that continues to try and resurrect the Snyderverse. I can't convince anyone I know to watch The Snyder Cut and I don't blame them, as it's a boring, incoherent, and unintentionally hilarious film...and yet its adherents continue to sing its praises (MauLer's review remains much more entertaining than the film itself). The movement itself is massively confusing, as its adherents dislike Ezra Miller (Snyder's Flash), Amber Heard (Snyder's Mera), and Ray Fisher (Snyder's Cyborg), but want to restore his vision. That vision itself was poorly conceived and executed, with Snyder wanting to do the equivalent of MCU Phase Three with his opening (kill Superman, jump to Thomas Wayne, do Flashpoint in the first Flash film, pull Cyborg out of his Teen Titan context, etc). I don't think Discovery will let Zack run the DCEU again, but I do wonder if they think there's enough fans to support an HBO+ show or something similar. Supporters keep talking about how well The Snyder Cut did on streaming, but I haven't seen convincing evidence of that.

This article was written by Peter Levi

Marvel News & Notes

Something I'd apparently missed is that the idea for a WandaVision season two is officially dead (this is so commonly known I stumbled across it via John Campea). There was never any specific promise for another season, so this isn't a change in plans, although if the show had been better received the possibility certainly would be raised. What we have instead is the spinoff announced in October that no one wants (Agatha), based in part (I'd guess) off the popularity of her song. I'm curious to see if this project gets cancelled (I'm doubtful, but if any does, this is a strong candidate).

The Ankler's Jeff Sneider (by way of ComicBookMovie.com, by way of The Direct, by way of Sneider's podcast--oh what fun) claims there have been a lot of issues with She-Hulk. Let's note that the only story from The Ankler I followed previously was false, but that was from a different contributor almost three years ago. This idea, that the show has issues, is also bubbling up elsewhere in the rumour mill, but all those rumours seem to lead back to The Ankler (whose comments are based off people working on the show).

I wanted to walk along the road of superhero films from 2020 to present, because I don't think the results are a sign of market change, but instead the result of both poor writing and the inability to release in China. Here's the list by earnings (split domestic/foreign):

• (MCU) Spider-Man 3 1.89 billion (803/1.088)
• (DC) The Batman 735 (359/376; ongoing)
• (MCU) Black Widow 504 (183/196; includes Disney+)
• (Sony) Venom 2 502 (213/288)
• (MCU) Shang-Chi 432 (224/207)
• (MCU) Eternals 402 (164/237)
• (DC) Birds of Prey 201 (84/117)
• (DC) The Suicide Squad 167 (55/111)
• (DC) Wonder Woman 1984 166 (46/120)
• (Sony) Morbius 126 (57/69; ongoing)
• (Fox) New Mutants 49 (23/25)

There are a number of takeaways from these numbers:

1. Most of these films are bombs--not just disappointments, but films that lost money or just broke even. Superhero films are meant to pad profits, not lose money (I think Venom 2 and up can be considered to have made money, albeit only Spider-Man 3 achieved the success intended for it).
2. MCU failed more outside the US than in it, while domestic tallies for DC films are terrible, so Phase Four has worked better domestically (albeit still having lost over half their audience--you can make an incoherent mess like Eternals and North Americans will still show up, which fits my anecdotal evidence as well). This moderate success is not enough to carry the brand forward. The reverse is true of DC films, where an even smaller but consistent proportion of foreign fans will show up for anything DC, but that's not true of the American audience (I suspect the latter is related to how DC's failed films have looked like MCU films--bright, colourful, etc). Sony leans more towards the Marvel model of performance in the limited sample size, but the lukewarm results indicates my belief that the success of Venom was a fluke is correct (Morbius tanking will undoubtedly cause some issues at Sony for future projects).
3. Most of these are origin films for unpopular IP--none of the comics these characters are based on are popular (the obvious exception is Wonder Woman, but that film is Neil Breen-levels of stupid).
4. The one film that performed as expected is Spider-Man 3, which clearly benefited by being filled with memberberries in a way it can't repeat. The MCU is desperately trying to repeat that success in Doctor Strange 2 via extensive reshoots. It may work, although, again, they won't be able to do it again (barring a full return of the Phase One heroes).
5. No one is claiming any of these films are among the greats--what you hear is that they are entertaining, but not praiseworthy ala The Dark Knight, Infinity War, etc--this is clearly an issue of story and there's no sign that DC, Sony, or the MCU are aware of this or trying to address it

Let's take a look at MCU on streaming--I've included Witcher just as a point of comparison (as is clear, at its peak Loki remained far below the poorly written Netflix show). I'm using Google Trends in part because I don't have Nielsen numbers for the earlier shows (and Moon Knight ratings aren't out yet), although we need to remind ourselves of Nielsen's limitations (American only and a very limited number of households).

As for the data itself, I'd argue all the Disney+ shows were poorly conceived and written, with WandaVision benefiting from both being the first MCU show and its mystery element, while Loki got to ride on Tom Hiddleston's coattails. Their ultimate reception is clear--no serious resonance and no positive impact on films or each other. Moon Knight, incidentally, sits just above Hawkeye on GT, but nowhere near the two more discussed shows. The general trend is decreasing interest from the public, to the point where Marvel can't expect fans to have seen the shows prior to a film, making including characters/events from them much more problematic.

I'm curious what (if any consequences) are coming for Ezra Miller after this latest incident. Miller faced no consequences for his 'assault' of an Icelandic woman in 2020, but the incident in Hawaii is more extreme. What will WB do? It's hard to say, as I don't know where Hollywood is in terms of what is acceptable. My guess is he'll apologize, be sent to rehab, and WB will scale back plans for him, but they will attempt to otherwise ignore the incident for the sake of The Flash film.

Speaking of DC, Sutton claims the J. J. Abrams black Superman film is almost certainly going to be cancelled when Discovery takes over WB (the issue being a lack of story and an inflated budget). You'd think hiring Abrams would necessitate those elements to begin with, but regardless, if this is true it's a sign of just how chaotic things are--they need a fresh start with a clear vision from someone who actually knows what they are doing. Ditching Abrams would be the best move, but he cost so much I don't imagine that's feasible. It's an odd thing, attempting to do a Superman sequel character when you haven't spent any time on the actual Superman. As bad as Falcon and the Winter Soldier was, at least we had an established Captain America for Sam to springboard from.

I almost never go to Reddit anymore (I only went for scoops and I don't make a point of tracking them anymore), but I was bemused to see that Mikey Sutton is still banned for a "high ratio of debunked scoops." The mods who posted this make no attempt to justify it (nor has anyone actually systematically tracked Sutton's predictions--Pierre Chanliau started, but gave up, likely because the evidence wasn't as clear cut as hoped, cf; in 2020 he had Sutton at 5% wrong, 9% right, and the rest undetermined/other categories, cf). Don't take me as an apologist per se--Sutton kicked me out of his Facebook group, after all--but my interest has only ever been in accuracy. In the realm of scoopers, Sutton has done well enough in Phase Four. The Reddit list also suggests that Murphy is the one with the true 'in' with the mod community, as RPK does not get the carte blanch of truth that he does (this despite Murphy doing some faceplants for Falcon and the Winter Soldier among others).

This article was written by Peter Levi

Marvel News & Notes

Screen Geek (Frank Palmer) claims Black Bolt (played by Anson Mount) will appear in Doctor Strange 2. If true, the number of cameos for the film continues to climb and a character like this would clearly be killed or pushed to the side almost immediately (there's simply no time to spend on him). I think the point of this is to try and add value to IP by attaching it to the MCU umbrella--I don't foresee many sales of Inhumans by doing this, but if there's even one that's one more than there would have been otherwise. I believe many of these cameo characters will be killed--in Black Bolt's case no one will care, but if they go hardcore there might be some pushback (killing Patrick Stewart's Professor X would be fine--he already died in Logan and the man is a thousand years old--but there are some popular actors and portrayals in the mix--if you bring in John Krasinski's Mister Fantastic only to kill him, fans will be pissed).

Inside the Magic's Thomas Hitchen (who?) thinks hints of a second season of Ms. Marvel could mean an end of Brie Larson as Captain Marvel. As stretches go, this is as far as you can reach. While Larson may not have a long tenure in the MCU (that remains to be seen), as evidence amounts to nothing.

Given the era, I remain surprised by Sydney Sweeney's casting in Madame Web, although it's worth remembering Sony's Marvel properties don't use the MCU's casting director (and Tom Rothman likes names). Sutton speculates she could be Silver Sable and while I'm uncertain of that, I agree with him that she's unlikely to be Black Cat.

I haven't talked box office for awhile as there hasn't been anything relevant to discuss. DC's The Batman is out however, so let's look at the earnings and add context.

• The Batman (Mar.4) - 598 million (300 domestic, 298 worldwide)

On the domestic front, other than Spider-Man 3, the film has been a hit in relative terms (as in, post-Covid, it's well ahead of #2 Shang-Chi, but has no hope of matching Spider-Man 3). Worldwide the performance is mediocre--excluding Chinese films, it has no hope of catching the aforementioned, No Time to Die, or Fast Nine, but might reach Godzilla vs Kong (367). This is also a Batman film--adjusted for inflation it has caught Batman Begins (2005), but that's a low bar given both the performance of the Nolan sequels and because it's a different superhero era. A Batman film should make a close to billion (that's certainly how the WB exec's see it), so no matter how you slice it, this is a disappointing performance. Without having seen the film myself, it's difficult to say why, although its length and an apparent poor ending are factors. On my end, the cast was underwhelming and nothing about the trailers or hype made me feel the need to rush out and see it (the only element I liked is Batman as a detective, but reviews I've seen have suggested its supporting characters who do the work). I felt the same indifference about Val Kilmer's Batman Forever (which I never saw in theaters, and granting that I like Kilmer while I don't care for Pattinson).

I'm not sure what to do with this rumour as it seems ancillary to Ms. Marvel, but since Sana Amanat is a crucial figure for that IP and is a VP at Marvel Comics, it's worth mentioning. Since at least December it's been suggested Amanat will be fired or removed for alleged harassment of male employees, with those reporting the news suggesting this will be done very quietly to avoid embarrassment (and, presumably, to prevent the news from impacting the marketing of the show). I don't think this will impact the quality of the show or the future of the IP, although if it does get out it might have a small effect on how the show is received.

Let's put in the grain of salts warning for the Nielsen Ratings, as these are American ratings and retain the limitations Nielsen had with cable--restricted to a small volume of participant households; despite that, it's at least an indicator for American preference; to make them standout more, I've italicized the genre shows (these are minutes watched, incidentally, with the number relating to a comparison against all viewing):

Ozark 2,904

Archive 81 1,035

Cobra Kai 670 (#6)

Cheer 597

Boba Fett 580 (#10)

Witcher 464

Too Hot to Handle 332

After Life 283

Stay Close 271

Emily in Paris 248

Ozark 4,095

Boba Fett 744 (#4)

The Woman Across etc 650

Archive 81 462

All of Us are Dead 448

Cobra Kai 395

In From the Cold 349

Witcher 315

Too Hot to Handle 309

Cheer 287

Ozark 2,372

Reacher 1,843

Sweet Magnolias 1,320

Raising Dion 1,133

The Woman Across etc 1,121

All of Us Are Dead 850

Boba Fett 776 (#8)

In From the Cold 658

Murderville 351

Pam & Tommy 312

Reacher 1,589

Sweet Magnolias 1,556

Ozark 1,222

Inventing Anna 1,219

Boba Fett 885 (#6)

Raising Dion 757

Love is Blind 478

All of Us Are Dead 454

Disenchantment 397

The Woman Across etc 366

Inventing Anna 3,283

Love is Blind 1,439

Ozark 1,083

Reacher 983

Sweet Magnolias 898

The Marvelous Ms. Maisel 499

Raising Dion 489

Space Force 438

All of Us are Dead 340

Boba Fett 339

The Ozark second week numbers are bizarre (I don't mean because it's popular, but in reference to anything else I've ever seen), but that aside, Boba Fett lingered like a bad smell (get your Vespa's running). I think one of the reasons why non-Netflix shows linger at a low level longer is that some people wait until the run is over to binge it Netflix-style.

We can also make a relatively fair comparison between how two genre IP faired when compared against one another (the second set of numbers is their percentage drop week-to-week, with the red indicating which dropped more when compared):

• Witcher: 2734-1827-1105-624-464-315 (7,019)
• Cobra Kai: 2423-2153-1038-670-395 (6,679)
• Witcher: 33%-40%-43%-25%-32%
• Cobra Kai: 12%-48%-35%-41%

Witcher started higher (12%) and remained on the chart a week longer, but Cobra Kai had back-to-back strong opening weeks before joining the fantasy show's steep decline (while they bingo back and forth between drops the totals are almost equal, just a 9% difference). Without question there's a bigger audience for Witcher, which helped keep it viewed a bit longer, as Cobra Kai is just safe, family entertainment. It's worth reiterating that all the hardcore Witcher IP fans on Youtube have given up on the show outside of future content and I think that's broadly true--views now rest entirely on casuals (poor CDPR, who is going to offer skins to match the show, isn't going to get much bang for its buck doing so in-game).

We can see that Amazon's The Legend of Vox Machina did not penetrate the market initially (at least by Nielsen's measure) and we can safely say that it won't hit Invincible or Arcane levels. It's worth noting that ancillary data points, such as people continuing to post YT reactions, remain after the show ended, which suggests an underlying cult success beyond the Critical Role audience. I'm guessing, assuming the numbers remain the same, that it didn't do as well as hoped, but hasn't failed (having 'adult' content likely didn't help, although I appreciate that they did). My own opinion remains the same: the show did well with humour, but the plot and character development is unremarkable and occasionally histrionic.

One of the unknowns that I'm curious about is whether Amazon can invest casuals into their LOTR project. It seems like most of the hardcore fans have already rejected it, and there are rumblings in the industry which are not normal (Forbes referenced criticisms, when normally they'd ignore or attack them). When season one of the successful Witcher came out the show made minor changes in response to criticisms--largely aesthetic, but also a switch to a linear narrative. These surface level changes did nothing to improve the core problem of poor writing and I think we'll see this come home to roost with the prequel and season three. As for LOTR, I just don't know. Everything about it reminds me of Amazon's The Wheel of Time which, while it didn't bomb, was not a hit and will see a smaller audience tune in for its second season (heading down the road of the failed Shannara series of eons past). I would expect LOTR to open much bigger, but will casuals reject it the same way? Time will tell.

This article was written by Peter Levi