I wanted to take a snapshot of interest in upcoming Marvel IP to gauge how effective marketing has been thus far (keeping in mind Google Trends is just an indicator, not a smoking gun; the graphs are huge so the writing is clearer). I've split the films and the Disney+ shows (I want to thank Marvel for picking some horrendous titles for tracking --it's impossible to simply use terms like 'Falcon,' 'Loki,' or 'Thor' since those can apply to other things). The expectation is that the films/shows furthest along should have generated the most interest and this is broadly true, so rather than focus on the expected, let's address what's outside that pattern:
- Black Widow: My impression that the trailer/teaser were simply average are born out by the declining interest; however, as an established character with a star actor, I don't think this matters as much as it would for other IP (but a good trailer would help)
- The Eternals: Outside of spikes for casting announcements, it has faded into the background--not off the charts like Shang-Chi, but it requires a good trailer to achieve engagement (this isn't a surprise to me, but a lot of MCU-wonks seem to think their excitement is more generally shared than it is)
- Shang-Chi: Has made virtually no impression at all--he's admittedly an obscure character and there's been no footage and few casting announcements, but it means there's a big hill to climb for the IP (despite a lot of scooper enthusiasm, even from people who loath each other like Murphy and LotLB)
- Doctor Strange 2: Outside the announcement in the summer there's just background noise (even the departure of Derrickson and arrival of Raimi made little impact)
- Thor 4: Virtually impossible to track, due to both its clunky title and the fact people can simply use 'Thor' to find it; after all the good will from Ragnarok and the Infinity Saga films, however, it's in a strong position
I think for Eternals and Shang-Chi there's a much larger need for marketing to create hype, with the latter two risking Ant-Man-like numbers should that fail.
As for the shows:
- Falcon and the Winter Soldier: Thus far has leaned hard into Falcon for the marketing and I'm not sure why given how popular Bucky is (it comes across as a Falcon show--which, perhaps, it is)
- WandaVision: Has done very well and its incredibly brief teaser is the best received of all the Phase Four marketing material thus far; I read a number of finger-wagging articles in the past about how Wanda hadn't been given her due in the MCU, but the interest shown here reject that idea
- Loki: This is incredibly difficult to track, but the character is so popular I think it's safe even from bad marketing (something which has barely started)
- Ms. Marvel: I've mentioned previously that she's a niche character the public isn't familiar with, but when I used 'Kamala Khan' as a search term (the third chart) I finally got spikes from the various bits of marketing we've seen for her and she does (with that term) stretch beyond She-Hulk below (without reaching the heights of Kate Bishop); casting and teasers for the show are still going to need to be strong to draw people in
- Hawkeye: using 'Kate Bishop' as the work-around for the noise associated with the title, outside the official announcement the only other news was the potential casting, but that spike was lower than similar events for the first two shows above (albeit, that was potential casting as opposed to an announcement); anchored by an original Avenger I think the show is safer than others from the impact of marketing
- She-Hulk: Outside the announcement there's been no effort to promote the show; despite that it's managed to stay in the background noise as well (or a little better) than Shang-Chi; there's more familiarity with the character, but promotion (and casting) will be vital here; adding the Hulk (which I expect) will help considerably
- Moon Knight: The spike for this announcement dwarfs all the other shows by a considerable margin (even the WandaVision teaser doesn't reach those levels), and despite no marketing and very little news, it lingers in the cycle as much (usually more) than the shows currently in production--this speaks to the general popularity of the IP (making it a safer product, but also adds more expectations from fans)
The biggest surprise to me was the resonance of Kate Bishop (particularly in comparison to Kamala Khan, who appears in the press much more frequently); it's also apparent that Wanda is more popular than Falcon, and that of undeveloped IP Moon Knight is a significant addition (making me wonder why Feige sat on him for so long). On the surface the biggest hills to climb will be for Ms. Marvel and She-Hulk, who will likely require strong supporting casts in a way that the other shows do not.
From Reddit:
- I've seen some footage of The Eternals, to protect my job I can not reveal my identity: Here's what I learned:
- Thousands of years ago, The Eternals form to stop The Deviants, led by Kro. Kro (David Oyelowo) wins and splits the team of Eternals to Titan and Earth, which leads them to both of them leading new lives on the planets. [I see no holes in Oyelowo's schedule to participate in the film]
- Present day, The main Eternals of Titan, A’Lars (Keanu Reeves), Eros (Dan Stevens), and Pixie (Millie Bobby Brown) get a distress call From Earth. They come across a ruined forest, and battle Druig (Barry Keoghan). Druig kills all three of them, and The Eternals of Earth soon find out about their deaths. [Neither Brown nor Stevens have apparent availability in their schedules for this; Reeves theoretically does for a cameo]
- Thena, Ikaris, Sprite, Gilgamesh, Sersi, Kingo, Phastos, Makkari, and Ajak come out of the shadows by avenging the deaths of the three Titans.
- Film is like a Space version of “Lord of the Rings”. [This reminds me of the Endgame rumour that Thor's journey would echo Aragorn's from Return of the King]
- Several flashbacks including the birth of all Eternals, Eternals at several points of history, Thanos has a cameo.
- The Eternals realize how important family and Earth is.
- Thena (Angelina Jolie) is revealed to have an affair with Kro, as their child was secretly killed by Ajak, who forbids love.
- Dane Whitman (Kit Harrington) is Sersi’s (Gemma Chan) boyfriend who is cursed with something similar to a deviant trait.
- Ajak (Salma Hayek) is killed by Druig, and Ikaris (Richard Madden) becomes the new leader.
We had a post from 4chan that, when mirrored on Reddit, the poster thought was just a synergy of other rumours--let's investigate. The major Shang-Chi rumours thus far are from 4chan in October, Reddit in October, and 4chan in January (there's also a reserve list from LotLB in January); I'll reference them below with 4C1, R1, and 4C2:
- Shang-Chi (Simu Liu), the Master of Kung-Fu, is the estranged son of The Mandarin (Tony Leung), leader of the terrorist organization known as "The Ten Rings". [4C1; 4C2 calls him a surrogate son, while R1 doesn't include a familial relationship]
- Shang-Chi once worked for the MI-6 - the UK’s secret intelligence service - against the Ten Rings, but has since abandoned that world, until a deadly conspiracy draws him back into a dangerous battle. [4C1 simply says he's aided by MI-6, while R1 and 4C2 don't reference it at all]
- Clive Reston is a seasoned veteran and Shang-Chi’s old partner and friend, who is now married to Leiko Wu, an elite operative who once had strong feelings for Shang-Chi. [4C1 and R1, but without reference to a relationship--R1 has them as agents of SHIELD; LotLB's list includes all three MI-6 characters, including Tarr below]
- Takeshi Matsuya is a young computer hacker who becomes Shang-Chi's associate after he leaves the MI-6. [Referencing the latest Daniel scoop]
- Reston recruits Shang-Chi to infiltrate an underground martial arts tournament organized by the Mandarin and learn what he is planning, forcing Shang-Chi to work alongside Leiko and Black Jack Tarr, an elite martial artist who enjoys the thrill of the battle. [All the other posts have involved a tournament, but emphasize the purpose is to win the Ten Rings; 4C1 had the older version of Tarr, who is the director of MI-6]
- Shang-Chi's opponents include his siblings, Cursed Lotus (Awkwafina) and Moving Shadow, and the Mandarin's enforcers Steel Claw, Midnight Sun, Razorfist and Ghostmaker. [The half-siblings 4C1; the list is directly from a casting call reported on in October with GWW's idea in July about Midnight Sun added to it]
- The Mandarin has his rings of power, and his masterplan is to awaken the legendary dragon Fin Fang Foom to help him conquer the world. [4C2; 4C1 and R1 echo the idea, albeit without the context; in all the other rumours, Mandarin is seeking the rings of power, rather than has them already]
4C1: Mention of M'Nai, Lancaster Zhang, Zhu, or Nick Fury (Mei Ling also isn't mentioned, but there's no reference to his mother at all above).
R1: Mention of an alien spaceship as the source of the Ten Rings (or the Avatars or the Ancestor), Shang-Chi's ability to duplicate himself, or reference to Foh Lo Suee, Trevor Slattery, or Chao.
4C2: Mention of the Ten Rings being an ancient alien artifact, Spiral, T-Ray, Omega Red, Batroc, Baron Mordo, Kree and Skrull fighters.
LotLB (keeping in mind this list is for a purported trilogy, not just this film): No White Tiger, Fah Lo Suee, Pete Wisdom (who they put on a Excalibur spec list three months earlier), Sir Denis Nayland Smith, Sword Master, Korain, Skullbuster, Warfist, Silver Samurai, or the Shadow Council.
The Redditor seems to be on the money here, as there aren't any unique elements. It seems to be largely based on earlier information mixed in with Daniel's recent scoop. I'd give it more credit if it included details about what Shang-Chi is doing after he leaves MI-6, or really, any detail that hadn't already been brought up by someone else.
Set photos from the show are starting to leak out and among them is one of Sophia Di Martino (the first cast member announced) dressed up as Loki, which seems to confirms the Lady Loki rumours (from Reddit this January as well as Murphy around the same time)--although there's some speculation she's Enchantress instead (I hope not--she doesn't look like Cailey Fleming or the character). Unlike the Kid Loki idea (which has rumour antecedents back to Murphy last January, as well as WGTC of all people), I actually think this is an interesting idea--the Norse-version of Loki was able to shape change (he's the mother of several mythological beings), so bring it on. That said, on the surface I'm not a fan of the kid version (I have mixed feelings about the Young Avengers in general, largely because of how poor the writing usually is for teen-based shows).
From a set video we've seen that actress Wunmi Mosaku is part of the cast as a member of the TVA--she's in a scene with Di Martino in a sequence where the latter is dressed up as Loki.
A listing on IMBD Pro has 12-year old actress Cailey Fleming as 'Young Sylvie,' whom everyone assumes means Sylvie Luston, aka Enchantress. The character has come up a few times over the last fourteen months:
- First last January when a 4chan post claimed she'd appear in a Sif show (something Discussing Film claimed was coming at the time)
- In October on Reddit (link above) it was claimed she was the villain of Loki and would appear in Doctor Strange 2
- This January 4chan claimed Jodie Comer was up for the role (link above)
- This January Reddit claimed the same as the earlier Reddit post
- Shortly after that Conrad speculated that a search for a blond stunt double pointed towards her (first link)
- The IMDB Pro listing above
Jeremy Renner (Hawkeye) posted on Instagram that he's getting ready for Hawkeye--this seems absurdly early for that if it's either in July (the original expected date) or September (Murphy's date); most actors are just a few weeks out of 'game shape,' so what's the point of the announcement if filming is 4-5 months away? The only immediate thing I can think of is hyping the (now pushed) announcement Marvel was going to make today (March 5th). It raises another possibility: of production being pushed forward to match the paired production we see everywhere else--in this case, paired with Loki--I'm just speculating, however.
Mark Ruffalo recently clarified that the Hulk rights are unchanged--they are still at Universal. This directly repudiates Conrad's claim back in January that both it and Namor's IP were back at Marvel (technically only the former, in fairness). Something else Ruffalo repeated was his desire to interact with Wolverine, but the comment suggests that such a move has not been decided on yet (as expected he's implied he'll be in She-Hulk).
Murphy put out a long post about the various production dates for Disney+ and here are the points of interest:
- Hawkeye is slated for late September (refuting Conrad et al), but keep in mind Renner's post above
- She-Hulk's filming has been pushed from August to November
- Moon Knight will film in the UK in November (confirming an earlier report)
- His thesis is Marvel is learning (on the fly) the various tricks of TV-production and that that is the primary cause of all the shifting dates.
We'll have to wait and see on this information, but as presented it seems credible. What's puzzling about this is why there's no tandem filming alongside Loki (unlike everything else). Falcon and Wanda have filmed virtually at the same time, as will Ms. Marvel/Hawkeye and She-Hulk/Moon Knight, so why would Loki be left all alone? If Ms. Marvel stuck to its original schedule, it would fit that slot (as would She-Hulk with Hawkeye). There's also a big production gap with no Disney+ starting for nearly six months after Loki (although if I'm interpreting Renner's post correctly than Hawkeye is coming sooner than later). One thing we can say with certainty is that Disney+ is fully capable of filming more shows than this a year if they wish.
Conrad weighed in on the Batroc rumours that have been going around and while he doesn't organize where they come from chronologically, I will:
- In January 4chan said he'd be in Shang-Chi
- Late January Georges St-Pierre posted an image of himself on Instagram flying to a new project (Conrad's link)
- Two different 4chan posts referenced him twice in late February (my link)
- The Weekly Planet podcast discussed him this week (Conrad's link)
Conrad self-owned himself in the Batroc post by referencing 4chan, because four months ago he proudly told Reddit "I don't read 4Chan" (in response to him lifting material from there). That's a sentiment he's said repeatedly, but clearly, even if its second hand, he does read 4chan.
This makes me wonder: was Conrad's rumour about Crossbones based on the 4channer's contention that various villains will be seen in the film (as in, did he see the Batroc rumour and wonder if he might be joined by other Captain America villains)? Food for thought.
LotLB long term spec list for Silver Surfer (all of whom are deeply embedded in the IP):
- The Elders of the Universe - this would normally include already introduced characters like the Collector and Grandmaster, although since they seem depowered in the MCU Tim wasn't sure if they would be included with them or not
- Galactus - he's coming to the MCU one way or another
- Shalla-Bal - Surfer's love interest and the reason he becomes the Silver Surfer
- Tenebrous - a minor but very powerful character
- Khoon - there's no chance whatsoever this name is kept--he's basically a thug
- Blackbody/Blackbodies - a device for collecting souls for the Uni-Lord (who isn't included on this list, for whatever reason, but is another antagonist)
- Geatar - a minor space pirate character with a romantic connection to Nebula
- Tyrant - a robot created by Galactus who becomes his enemy; back in August Conrad claimed he would be the first Herald of Galactus
- Morg the Executioner - a Herald of Galactus who wields an axe
- Terrax - another Herald of Galactus who wields an axe (albeit a more popular one)
- Annihilus - a classic Fantastic Four villain who hits the rumour cycle periodically
- Unrelated to the list, they restated that Frankie Raye (Nova) will be part of the Fantastic Four and follow her arc of being in love with Johnny Storm before becoming the Herald of Galactus
A Redditor posted up what he claims was the Spider-Man 3 script prior to the renewed deal with Marvel. The problem with this idea is that the writers (McKenna and Sommers) had started the script before the deal broke down in August, leaving just seven weeks for a non-MCU script to be completed--I find this highly unlikely. However, in order to keep tabs on things we might hear in the future (or those we've heard in the past), I'm included his post:
- Based on an earlier script during the SONY/Mravel breakup [Aug.20-Oct.1]. Most of this will probably be changed. I didn't read the whole thing, most of the script was being rewritten because the deal was repaired, but the parts I could read predate the new deal.
- Film is much darker than FFH/Homecoming, but is still incredibly comedic
- Any refrencss [references] to avengers [Avengers] is done by calling them "the company." Stark is referenced as "The Savior" and the blip [Blip] is referenced, but they called it "the blippening" I guess so they can get around it.
- Uncle Ben did have a role in the movie via a tombstone Peter visited while hiding from the police. He says something along the lines of "No matter how many times I try and fill the void you left, I can't because they all leave me too. It hurts." I'm paraphrasing, but it's along those same lines.
- Michelle's legal name is actually Mary Jane, she just didn't like it so she continuously asked to be called Michelle.
- Ned was forced to change his name and move to Brooklyn as his parents were afraid of Peter. He was transferred to "Brooklyn Heights"
- The villians [villains] are Kraven, who is dying of cancer is after Peter so he can claim his last score, before dying. [Despite the plural for villains, this is the only one mentioned; it references Kraven's Last Hunt which was going to be Sony's Kraven-film (announced back in 2018)--although as I pointed out in October we've heard nothing about this film since]
- There were a few planned PCS [post-credit scenes], and Sony wasn't sure which one
to use. The mid-crecit [credit] scene was of Mysterio watching from the distance as
Peter scrambles to his feet and tries to escape the angry crowd after his
identity was revealed, and he had a smirk on his face. The PCS they were
deciding on, were Ned moving in with his roommate, Miles, under a new name,
"Ganke" - as
Troy Barnes[the strike through is from the post] Aaron Davis helps Miles move in. We don't see Miles' face, it's only from behind, and Davis calls him out by name. He grew up during the blippening. And the other was of Joseph H. (Hammerhead) delivering the bounty to an "unknown buyer" for Spider-Man. I don't believe it was Osborn, I think it may have been Fisk because the mysterious buyer was decribed [described] as a "heavier set man with a black and white suit, holding a cane." [It'd be a little puzzling introducing a Miles Morales at hero-appropriate age when Peter Parker is still in high school]
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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