MCU News & Notes

One of the great myths of post-pandemic releases is that films have performed below expectations because of it. Unfortunately for proponents of this theory, Spider-Man 3 (released amidst fears of the omicron variant) has blown it out of the water. The film is performing exactly like a normal, pre-pandemic big budget release, which lends credence to my belief that the general underwhelming box office is due to the poor quality of 2021 releases. Spider-Man 3 is already the best performing film of the year, so what has it brought to the table that others haven't? A mix of things: respectful nostalgia (possibly to be imitated by other IP--ala Michael Keaton returning as Batman--rather than subverting expectations ala The Last Jedi, the two recent Terminator films, Ghostbusters 2016, etc), avoiding politics in its marketing, not attacking the fanbase, and (at least anecdotally) being a competent film (MauLer gave it the same score as The Suicide Squad, 5/10, but I have yet to see it myself). Admittedly, the movie is in a unique position in being able to interconnect two prior film franchises, but to do so without pissing off those fans is incredibly rare (ie the mishandled Witcher). Respecting fans isn't enough, as can be seen with Bill & Ted Face the Music and Ghostbusters: Afterlife, but it's the most obvious way to keep the core audience happy and buying merch. The industry's hackneyed writing is letting audiences down, but I doubt Spidey's success means immediate relief is in sight.

Spoilers ahead: I haven't been watching Hawkeye, but I did hear that Kate Bishop and Echo both defeated the Kingpin in their first encounter, which is a painful waste of the character--you have to build villains up before you defeat them (Daredevil season one spent twelve episodes establishing how tough he was before the final confrontation; Thanos wins in Infinity War before he's defeated; etc), but the opportunity is now squandered. When tertiary characters can beat the Kingpin in their first encounter, his potency as a villain is undercut. I also heard that they re-wrote the purpose of Black Widow's sacrifice in Endgame (rather than saving Barton and his family, it's for...Yelena?), which hurts that film even more (Phase Four has been shitting all over the ending of Phase Three). It's this kind of thing--poorly conceived and executed storytelling--that has driven me largely out of the MCU.

I've steered clear of watching The Wheel of Time, as everything I've read and heard reinforces that I wouldn't enjoy it. The second season is already filming (or has completed filming), so like the forgotten Shannara series, more is to come, but I believe the IP is doomed--not only is it dwarfed by The Witcher in general interest, but there's no secondary resonance with merchandise (unlike with Dune or Witcher, or in the past with Game of Thrones--Robert Jordan's series continues to collect dust on the shelves).

Speaking of The Witcher, I've tried watching season two and, as expected, the terrible writing from season one continues. It's even poorer than the previous season--Lauren Hissrich has Neil Breen's understanding of story/character coherence. The show went out of its way to piss off pre-existing fans with a bizarre and nonsensical portrayal of Eskel, in addition to confused iterations of Lambert and Vesemir (what accent Kim Bodnia is attempting I have no idea, but I want him to stop). What really matters for The Witcher is how casuals receive it and that's not yet clear--the anecdotal evidence is trickling in and hard numbers are far away, but I think this season will Last Jedi-away original fans of the IP (the usual YT suspects, like xLetalis, all agree the first episode is the best and that the season as a whole is disappointing). The only positive from the Netflix adaptation is that it's introduced new people to the IP and while I think Sapkowski's books are a mixed bag (just like Stephen King, his older stuff is better), having a chance to experience the games for the first time is well worth it for those who take the plunge.

Speaking of hard numbers, public Nielsen ratings from mid-November (15th-21st) are finally available and illustrate that the appetite for fantasy is strong even when the offerings are weak (the number is minutes watched):

1. Wheel of Time (Nov.19) 1,163 (2nd overall behind Red Notice)
2. Tiger King (Nov.17) 685
3. Great British Baking Show (Nov.19) 513
4. You (Oct.15) 489
5. Narcos: Mexico (Nov.5) 428
6. Cowboy Beebop (Nov.19) 414 (cancelled before its run completed)
7. Big Mouth (Nov.5) 319
8. Maid (Oct.1) 302
9. Locke & Key (Oct.22) 293
10. Hellbound (Nov.19) 272

We are reliant on Nielsen and quarterly reports because the various streaming services routinely lie about their numbers otherwise. Hawkeye had not yet premiered so it can't be directly compared. It's almost sad how desperate fans are for something to fill The Game of Thrones void.

We can, briefly, talk about Parrot Analytics, which uses a Byzantine system to try to assess overall impact by measuring available data (social media, pirating, etc), but they don't explain how they weight their data, making their results difficult assess--you can see how it varies from places like Reelgood in terms of rankings (the PA numbers are here for December last week, while RG is this week--it's not perfect, but the best I could do):

1. Spongbob (PA), Hawkeye (RG)
2. South Park (PA), The Witcher (RG)
3. SNL (PA) The Grinch (RG)
4. My Hero Academia (PA) Yellowstone (RG)
5. The Wheel of Time (PA) Elf (RG)
6. Game of Thrones (PA) Spider-Man 2002 (RG)
7. The Flash (PA) The Wheel of Time (RG)
8. Sesame Street (PA) Die Hard (RG)
9. Hawkeye (PA) The Unforgiveable (RG)
10. The Walking Dead (PA) Station Eleven (RG)

Reelgood's trending TV shows has a completely different order, which is a little hard to parse with the above. According to PA, the US ranking is quite different from worldwide:

1. The Wheel of Time
2. Hawkeye
3. Arcane
4. The Witcher
5. The Mandalorian
6. Titans
7. Stranger Things
8. Cobra Kai
9. La Casa De Pape
10. Ted Lasso

There are some oddities here too given PA's list above, but with regional bias it's a bit more understandable. Nielsen's hard numbers are a full month behind, making it difficult to assess these. When you cut out the movies and reruns, the two agree that (in different order) Hawkeye, The Witcher, and The Wheel of Time are (or were) near the top of new streaming shows. Whether any will have legs once they are over remains to be seen (I doubt it).

Beyond that, I thought it was interesting to look at how PA sees the top-20 streaming shows of 2021 (despite posting it ten days before the year was over):

1. Stranger Things
2. The Mandalorian
3. WandaVision
4. Cobra Kai
5. Titans
6. Ted Lasso
7. Star Wars: The Clone Wars
8. Lucifer
9. The Witcher
10. The Handmaid's Tale
11. The Expanse
12. Falcon and the Winter Soldier
13. The Boys
14. Loki
15. Star Trek: Discovery
16. You
17. Animaniacs
18. Money Heist
19. Harley Quinn
20. Doom Patrol

Broadly speaking the list seems fine, but there are some oddities (Titans at #5? Loki behind Falcon? Anyone watching Discovery?). The fact that Hawkeye and other recent releases aren't here isn't a big deal--they don't have months to collect views like shows released earlier. Valid or not, it's interesting and something to look back on in the future.

One trend that's continues is a persistent interest in Norse-inspired productions. Historical shows/films aren't unusual, but the focus on Vikings isn't typically this prominent--beginning back, at least, to the History channel's Vikings in 2013. It seems antipodal to current trends given the focus/casting. We're getting a feature film in this milieu with The Northman in April, which may or may not be good, but how it performs will be interesting to watch. I feel like at least some of this sustained production is because of how closely it echoes fantasy narratives and the (unsatisfied) appetite that exists for them.

This article was written by Peter Levi

MCU News & Notes

For over a year now deleted social media posts from Phase Four figures have come back to haunt them and an old Tweet from Michael Waldron is the latest. I don't think this will impact Waldron at all (just as it hasn't Bisha K. Ali, Simu Liu, and others), but if there are changes coming to the MCU, it could serve as a convenient way to get rid of him. Do I think Waldron should be cancelled? Of course not, but his writing alone is reason enough not to retain his services.

Hawkeye continues to flounder (Charlie has not stopped using anything other than the main characters to flog videos about it). I have no idea what this means, if anything, for either it or the character's future (and by character I mean Kate Bishop, as it's her show). As I mentioned last time, I don't know what the MCU will do to try to win back the fans it is bleeding out. When Star Wars went through this process a few years ago it hit the nostalgia needle like a heroin addict, so that might be what's in store 2-3 years from now (by that I mean a return of actors from the past--whether superficially or prominently I don't know--rumour has it Bob Chapek wants Robert Downy Jr. back as Iron Man).

Recently Henry Cavill said he'd love to play Captain Britain and plenty of people jumped on that to say it's a signal that he will be (Orlando Bloom said much the same years ago and he's not the only British actor to do so). We've known for certain since Endgame that the character has been in the MCU's plans and plenty of scoopers have echoed the sentiment. As for Cavill himself, here's the timeline of rumours while I was tracking them:

• September, 2019 - 4chan said he'd met with Feige about a potential role
• September, 2019 - Sutton said Feige is considering him for a role
• January, 2021 - Daniel reported a rumour that he was being considered for Captain Britain
• March, 2021 - Daniel reported a rumour that Cavill had reached out to Feige about a role
• March, 2021 - Sutton says he's who Feige wants for the role
• May, 2021 - Daniel reported a rumour that Cavill was in talks for either Hercules or Captain Britain

June was when I stopped systematically tracking these things, but in looking now there's been nothing new about the subject from Daniel, Sutton, or Murphy. Cavill won't come cheap and certainly doesn't fit the casting mold Phase Four is pushing, but the MCU actually needs buzz for the first time in a long time, so maybe they'd push for him (we know penny-pinching by WB is part of the reason he's in limbo as Superman--if J. J. Abrams' black Superman goes forward as expected, having Cavill as well could be too confusing--considering there's nothing in production including him, I think his time there is done). Cavill would be an excellent choice, but he needs good writing or this would be the same train wreck as everything else in Phase Four.

Excluding Chinese releases, I wanted to look at the top 2021 films, including the split between foreign and domestic (US) gross; those still meaningfully in theaters are in green (estimated budgets are also included and those that have definitively lost money are in red; I've italicized films that have underperformed given their budget/expectations--broadly those which are well under 50% more than their budget).

• 1. No Time to Die (Universal/Oct/450k) - 765k (79.1/20.9)
• 2. The Fast Saga (Universal/June/300k) - 726k (76.2/23.8)
• 3. Venom 2 (Sony/Oct/165k) - 483k (56.3/43.7)
• 4. Godzilla vs Kong (WB/March/300k) - 467k (78.5/21.5)
• 5. Shang-Chi (Disney/Sept/300k) - 431k (48/52)
• 6. Eternals (Disney/Nov/300k) - 395k (59.2/40.8)
• 7. Dune (WB/Oct/250k) - 389k (72.6/27.4)
• 8. Black Widow (Disney/July/300k) - 379k (51.6/48.4) - plus 125k from Disney+ (504k)
• 9. Free Guy (Fox/Aug/180k) - 331k (63.3/36.7)
• 10. A Quiet Place 2 (Paramount/May/90k) - 297k (46.2/53.8)
• 11. Cruella (Disney/May/150k) - 233k (63.1/36.9)
• 12. Jungle Cruise (Disney/July/300k) - 220k (47/53)
• 13. The Conjuring 3 (WB/June/60k) - 201k (67.5/32.5)
• 14. The Suicide Squad (WB/Aug/275k) - 167k (66.7/33.3)
• 17. Ghostbusters (Sony/Nov/115k) - 164k (29.3/70.7)
• 15. Space Jam 2 (WB/July/225k) - 162k (56.7/43.3)
• 16. Peter Rabbit 2 (Sony/June/65k) - 153k (73.8/26.2)
• 18. The Boss Baby (Universal/July/120k) - 142k (59.8/40.2)
• 19. Tom and Jerry (WB/Feb/120k) - 132k (65.3/34.7)
• 20. Halloween Kills (Universal/Oct/30k) - 131k (30.1/69.9)

I'm dubious that any of these films are good, although several might be mediocre (the praise for Dune seems very similar to what the Snyder Cut received, making me very suspicious of it). What is clear is how dependent studios are on franchises, reboots, and sequels, as Free Guy is the only film in the top-20 that doesn't fall into one of those categories. I think this is both due to studios being risk adverse and their desire to follow trends. One thing I think we can all agree on is that writing for projects released during the pandemic has been subpar and there's no change in sight (look at Cowboy Bebop). The other thing that's obvious is how high production budgets are for many of these films--this guarantees (or should) a quality spectacle, but that's largely failed to draw crowds. It's also apparent how soft the US domestic market is, as even films that couldn't air in China lean on foreign box office. Films are largely aimed at the domestic audience, but that strategy can't continue if this doesn't change. I don't expect Hollywood to accept this as permanent until more time has passed. The above is a good illustration that stars (Dwayne Johnson) don't guarantee success anymore than hot directors do (James Gunn), and absurd budgets for both cost both WB and Disney.

Another figure who was briefly in this space departed months ago. Andy Signore gave up on scoops and genre film earlier this year, which has proven beneficial to his channel. Andy's limp opinions weren't unique, so there was no space for him to make an impact (I remember him mostly for his combative response to any who questioned him). This blandness is the Achilles heel of scoopers past and present--they are terrified to say anything negative for fear of losing access, so their opinions are bland--everything is amazing and brave and could we have more pretty please? There's some reflection of this in the analysis/outrage sphere (praise for the Snyder Cut is pure pandering), but it's somewhat muted by the focus of their channels.

This article was written by Peter Levi

MCU News & Notes

Changes within Disney could signal changes in the MCU, but in what way and to what degree is less clear. Ideologue Victoria Alonso, who has been campaigning against the use of the term 'X-Men' for years (based on third wave ideas that it's exclusionary--echoing the late 80s/early 90s push to change 'fireman' to 'fireperson' etc), has been promoted away from development, limiting her impact on Marvel. Being an ideologue isn't inherently nefarious--Edward Snowden is an example of the positive side--but it hasn't resulted in quality entertainment. Susan Arnold, whose past (much like CEO Bob Chapek) is in finance, has become the new Chairman in 2022, and some believe that background will make her less ideologically motivated (while others argue the fact that she's a lesbian means full steam ahead, as if everyone in the LGBT community functions via groupthink). We've also seen unprecedented criticism of the MCU allowed from those who made it successful in the first place (the Russo brothers in particular), which either signals change or that the duo are never coming back. What kind of changes are coming? I have no idea. Some speculate Feige himself is on the way out, although that's hard to imagine. Could Marvel move back to being fan-friendly? On the comic side that seems impossible, but there's time for the MCU to recoup its loses--Phase Four is easily jettisoned, but I wouldn't expect any major changes soon.

One of the reasons these moves are happening at Disney is illustrated by 2021's box office--MCU films haven't performed as expected. A weak James Bond film and middling Fast Nine installment crossed 700k, so that's where Marvel films ought to be--competing at the top. Instead, the MCU and Sony's independent effort are close to 40% lower than that number--a failure by any measure. The Disney+ shows have also failed--they ought to be among the top streaming shows, but they trail them considerably and we're at the point where their low quality is impacting new releases (Hawkeye, see below). At some point Disney has to start hitting the targets expected by investors. It's not clear to me what that will mean in terms of specific changes, since garbage can still sell, but this garbage clearly isn't cutting it.

We know Disney has experienced a significant slowdown for Disney+ (missing their quarterly goal by 80%). The streaming service isn't just Marvel, but in terms of original content they are expected to lead. I don't think changes, whatever they are, will come in time to fix shows already in progress. Positive signs I'm looking for are removal of people like Mark Waldron and Jac Schaeffer from their projects, and perhaps cancelling unwanted fair like the Agatha Harkness show. Hawkeye's opener underperformed, falling behind all the previous MCU shows, making it clear that the interest in Phase Four is continuing to drop (a good indicator of this is looking at reactor views for it in comparison to prior MCU shows).

I was reminiscing over various figures in the fandom in my last post and there's an interesting comparison we can make to notables currently in the field. Mikey Sutton, who started his public push for exposure back in 2019 (with Lords of the Long Box, Pete's Basement, Matt Jarbo, etc) remains a marginal figure in the fandom, as demonstrated by his impact on viewership (look at the indifference his scoops are met with on Midnight's Edge, for instance). Sutton, as a former (music) journalist and a man with plenty of people pushing his work, hasn't achieved the market penetration he desires (he'd be better off in roundtable formats--Shadiversity has made this conclusion and is doing so on Knights Watch). On the flipside, Kamran Pasha burst into the space months ago and is now a byword to boosting shows within the community. While this is confined to the outrage sphere, it's launched his reputation in the fandom to a place where he's actively sought after for his commentary. Sutton remains a scooper with a smaller presence than the irritating Charles Murphy. Daniel and Murphy are on the opposite side of the political spectrum from Pasha (while all three support diversity, the latter is otherwise conservative), entertainment lefties don't impact YT much (there's not much space for them since big channels already fill that niche), making them dependent on Patreon/being reflected in the wider fandom. These popularity restrictions are the main reason why I think both Daniel and Murphy object so strongly to Sutton (even though he shares their ideology), as he directly challenges their pocketbooks (they opposed Jeremy Conrad/Manabyte for the same reason). Incidentally, while writing this I noticed that Jarbo has gone back to his dying 3 Buck Theater channel with Sutton scoops, so Mikey is returning to that relationship (god knows why--for Jarbo this seems part of his never ending feud with Doomcock, but I don't know what Sutton gets out of it--there's no audience to be gained from Jarbo, although it's interesting that the latter's colourful past doesn't concern him). The issue for Sutton is making any waves at all can crush him like it did Jeremy Conrad, but towing the line makes it impossible for him to standout from people offering the exact same material. Pasha comes at it from the other side of the equation, so by default he makes waves and brings with him the background in the industry to give him credibility, thus (in my opinion) the difference in their impacts. Btw, just for fun, here are current Patreon/YT numbers:

RPK 561/c.$2,000

Ethan Van Scriver (YT 146k) 516/c.$1,500

Doomcock (YT 272k) 450/c.$1,500

MauLer (YT 382k) 429/$2,064

Charles Murphy 308/$1,276

Nerdrodic (376k) 181/$792

Kamran Pasha 150/c.$950

Midnight's Edge (YT 205k) 89/$274

Syl Abdul (YT 2k) 15/$30

Matt Jarbo (YT 32k) 12/c.$35

Small Screen (YT 1k) 4/$57

Patreon doesn't mean much to live streamers (because of superchats), which is largely what Gary, MauLer, and Andre lean on, but it's most of the income RPK and Murphy gain through doing this (Charles has a real job, so this is all just gravy for him, but I believe RPK makes his living doing this). I don't pay attention to Scriver and rarely encounter Doomcock, but they are all part of the same ecosystem.

One of the reasons I stopped covering these curmudgeons (scoopers) is because fans don't seem to care how accurate they are. From what I can tell, this is reflected in all fandoms, where what people are looking for are things to get excited/mad about, with the validity being largely meaningless. I couldn't tell you why that's the case, but it became more and more apparent as time went on. Promoting a scoop is less about how real it is and more about how sensational it is (for whatever audience you target). Think of it like sports commentary--this fighter is better than that fighter, this player is better than that player--no one cares if the commentator is right, but focus on the debate itself. Given that, the amount of labour required to track all of it, and the fact that the MCU's output has turned to dreck I decided to walk away.

To dovetail back to Alonso and the culture war, it will be interesting to see if small steps like the media giving up on "Latinex" (since the Latino community hates the term) is a sign of a return to sanity, or if it's an irrelevant pause in the madness. Given that identity politics is a top down movement (rather than grass roots), it's difficult to say what will or won't change. The argument that underlying economics could shift things has some merit (China saying 'no' has an immediate impact; there's a rather desperate attempt to make India take its place, but the latter has its own vibrant entertainment industry so I don't think that's an easy transition), but how much and in what way is unclear to me. We can see how meaningless this all is in terms of direct political action in the US, where the elite are happy to allow abortion laws to return to the Stone Age so long as they get what they want in film and television.

A friend of mine has been trying to get me to watch The Wheel of Time despite me telling him that nothing I saw about the production, casting, or showrunner were positives. I have now seen/read some reviews and they seem to validate my expectations (I should note that despite losing to Hawkeye on Trends, it had more viewers for the premiere episode--as I've always said, Trends is just an indicator). Will I torture myself with an episode or two? Time will tell, but it's no surprise that Amazon Prime would take classic, epic fantasy, and ignore it to create generic modern television. I'm not the target for this material anyway, as I expect adaptations to adapt the material as faithfully as possible (ala Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, and the early seasons of Game of Thrones) and no one in the business wants to do that anymore (you are welcome to enjoy it, but I do not--that approach works best for those unfamiliar with the IP). This reaction is different from my ignoring Dune, which I did because I've seen the IP adapted twice already (1984 and 2000) and made a firm commitment to avoid anything featuring Zendaya (Spider-Man excluded) for the sake of my own sanity--she clearly attended the Gal Gadot school of acting and her publicist has made her insufferably impossible to avoid (for the love of god get her off my Twitter feed).

Back to The Wheel of Time: keep in mind season two is happening regardless of the response and that's inevitable because fantasy shows are so expensive to produce (the unwatchable Shannara series got three seasons). I am curious, when the dust settles, to see the numbers and hear what (internally) the reaction within Amazon is to the response. We all know Jeff Bezos respects one thing and one thing only: profits.

This article was written by Peter Levi