MCU News & Notes

The Doctor Strange 2 trailer was solid if ephemeral (it's surprisingly low on Google Trends--that recent snapshot doesn't illustrate how far behind it hit versus other big IP); America Chavez was mostly hidden, which I suspect was due to most of her scenes being re-shot. Alarm bells were ringing for me when Wanda says how it doesn't seem fair that it's okay for Doctor Strange to break the rules, but not her. If this comment represents the view of the MCU, it's a failure to understand the criticism of WandaVision, where our heroine tortured hundreds of people for selfish reasons (she was sad) with no consequences or condemnation in the narrative (which does not compare at all to what Strange does in Spider-Man 3). I have a suspicion that the MCU is going to argue in the story that because the results of what Strange did are worse, he's worse than Wanda, whose torture was also unintentional. As reasoning goes this isn't very good, since Strange did what he did to save someone and faces resistance to do so, while Wanda's was purely selfish and is given approbation and forgiveness throughout (the hilarious Monica Rambeau faceplant). Let's hope I'm wrong and it's not as hamfisted as it appears (this is Phase Four however, and coherent story and character has largely been flushed down the toilet).

Beyond that, the trailer confirmed a couple of long-standing MCU rumours:

1. The Savage Land (2019, May) - LotLB (via their original source) were the first to float the idea that I'm aware of (this scoop was involved with their fight with Murphy, cf; I'd speculated about it appearing a year earlier), which Sutton echoed months later--in both cases they said it would be used in the second X-Men film (Sutton claims we see the Savage Land in the trailer)--it's not exactly as predicted, since neither put it in Doctor Strange 2, but still of note; if we get Ka-Zar and Shanna, I expect at least one race swap and little to no comic accuracy in their portrayal (unless it's some modern iteration I'm unaware of, likely where Shanna has Ka-Zar's role), as that's been the Phase Four trend
2. The Illuminati (2020, January) - Sutton correctly said the group would appear in the film; we also now know that Patrick Stewart was either: 1) lying to protect an NDA when he claimed he'd rejected Feige's offer to reappear as Professor X because Logan was such a good send-off of the character, or 2) subsequently changed his mind (I suspect the former, since with Picard he said 'no' until they paid him more and gave in to some demands to service his ego)

The major curiosity for Strange 2 is how much the cameos will boost interest (my prediction that Marvel would spoil cameos before release was confirmed by the trailer). Nostalgia is a powerful drug and if the film is at least average, that's enough to drag its box office towards what used to be the MCU norm. What I'm not expecting is a truly good film (ala the first Doctor Strange).

More Nielsen ratings:

Cobra Kai 1038 (#2, -52%)

Cheer 629

Witcher 624 (#8, -46%)

Stay Close 558

Boba Fett 467 (-12%)

Queer Eye 394

Emily in Paris 357

Archive 81 329

Ozark 324

Undercover 277

The crash for The Witcher continues (just 22% of the audience remains/returns), with none of the externals we saw after season one (strong book sales, increase in game popularity, etc); Netflix shows tend to burn out quickly, and its general arc is similar to Cobra Kai (albeit with a stronger opening and weaker second week). This won't hurt the approach to a third season, but the level of hype is going to suffer and I expect the prequel series to tank (I thought Ozark is a useful example--a show built from a fantastic first season with a poorly written second--but as it turns out, it's not). The lingering stench of Wheel of Time has finally fallen off the list, while the bumbling Vespa-fueled Star Wars effort continues to stumble (I have no idea what can save the brand at this point--presumably even more memberberries).

I haven't referenced Amazon's Lord of the Rings for quite some time, but since my optimistic post in August all the news for it has been bad and I've surrendered to the fact that it's going to be just as disappointing as the adaptations of The Witcher and The Wheel of Time (albeit with better visuals). Like those shows, it's being made for casuals and I have no idea if they will tune in or not (they did for Witcher, but not for Wheel of Time--early investment for bigger IPs might be the trend). All three of these fantasy shows were made by people with no prior experience or investment in the genre and it shows. I am enjoying the meme of people commenting on the teaser with a paraphrase of Tolkien's comment about evil's inability to create (via Frodo in Return of the King). Amazon has already made the Ghostbusters error of fighting with fans and once you go down that road you're just making it harder and harder to succeed.

Let's look at what possible reactions to the adaptation could mean (which, as I've said many times before, we will get multiple seasons of no matter how it's received--fantasy shows are so expensive to make they require multiple seasons):

1. It's a smash hit - the trend of butchered adaptations will continue and we can expect another decade or so of terrible fantasy productions; none of this detracts from the source material or the Jackson films, but would likely mean the upcoming Warner Brothers anime will be similarly ridiculous
2. It bombs - the best case scenario for adaptations in general--the IP was so expensive to acquire it will rattle Amazon Prime--that won't save the show and likely puts to bed any other Second Age adaptation for a long time (and such an adaptation would have to be different from Amazon's anyway); it could also signal more faithful fantasy adaptations throughout the industry
3. Response is mixed - the most likely result and as such won't set a trend

What's funny is that all these recent fantasy shows were intended to achieve the success of Game of Thrones, but none have come remotely close to it (I'd compare Witcher season one to Stranger Things in terms of initial impact). In fact, they are so different from GoT I'm not sure how executives thought any of them would capture that market--the entertainment industry loves imitation, but this is the loosest sort. It makes me wonder if we'll see a souring of interest in adapting fantasy because of the cost.

Let's end on a positive note. As per usual the best things on a streaming service were made by someone else, and this is the case for The Legend of Vox Machina. The animated feature is based on the hit D&D show Critical Role (on Twitch and Youtube) and for someone casually aware of it I've enjoyed it thus far. The humour is what carries it, as the story has pacing issues, but I'm curious to see how it did with the normies and we don't have Nielsen numbers yet. It's far better than I expected, although that doesn't guarantee its second season will be good (we simply don't know--Critical Role has hired some uninspiring people to write their comics, ala Sam Maggs, and we can see modern tendencies creep in along the edges in the show itself).

This article was written by Peter Levi

Marvel News & Notes

I've talked about the reshoots going on for the MCU right now and one thing that's not been made clear is how much of it is due to poor testing and how much is a matter of riding the wave of memberberries from Spider-Man 3 (the official reason is the latter, incidentally). I think it's a mix of both, since the reworking of America Chavez (whose scenes are believed to have been almost completely re-shot, cf) has no obvious parallel to the Spidey blockbuster. On the other hand, the number of cameos (likely intended to be high even before Spidey's success) has possibly been increased. What I'm most interested in is what the MCU decides to do with Doctor Strange, since thus far the whole thrust of Phase Four is to subvert and diminish the older heroes to make space for the new (something comics have tried and failed to do numerous times). On the surface, Wanda would be the presumed person to supersede him, but her story in WandaVision was botched so badly I'm not sure what you can do with her. Perhaps an even more brave and amazing spellcaster will emerge to save the multiverse--time will tell. I'm also curious how the reaction to the absurd Loki will impact whatever was intended (since it was the most obvious lead-in to the film thematically)--it's simply not clear unless we get an Eternals-style leak.

Sutton says Tom Cruise will be playing an alt-version of Iron Man in the film, which is an old Daniel rumour from the fall of 2020, and a pretty big 'win' for him if true.

The obvious save for the MCU--and not one we'll get, but what would save them from themselves--is that the entirety of Phase Four occurs in the multiverse and can be waved away in a better written Phase Five. This will never happen, because Kevin Feige and his executives would have to admit making mistakes (look at DC's inability to do the same, or Star Wars, or Star Trek, etc), but for fans this is one way out of this disaster.

I have no idea what audience Marvel thinks will show up for an Agatha Harkness show. At least Echo, who is equally uninteresting, can be carried by Daredevil (albeit, if it's done Hawkeye-style, that won't work--and Kingpin has already been ruined, so I haven idea which Daredevil villain she'll bravely defeat). While it may be too far along, Bob Chapek can still save us from Agatha, but there's no rescuing us from Echo.

I'm shocked that Sony cast Dakota Johnson as Madame Web. This project has been floating around for awhile, and given that Sony announces a lot of projects that don't happen, this one always had a better chance of happening because it was backed by Palak Patel, who seems to be the one actually in charge of Marvel Sony (he's behind both Venom films as well as Morbius). In 2019 it was said that Madame Web would spinoff from Morbius and writers were hired at that time. Both C. J. Clarkson and Roberto Orci are rumoured to have been hired for the project (both were hired for something for Marvel Sony), although the latter would run against Hollywood's current passion for having female directors for female-lead films. That background aside, I'm shocked the character hasn't been race-swapped and/or been an actress who doesn't conform to the usual beauty standards (MCU-style). The hiring smacks of Tom Rothman, who believes in stars (or at least names) and wants them to front his films. Johnson's hiring doesn't guarantee quality (the odds are that the film--if it happens--won't be anything to write home about), but I remain surprised how counter programming it is to the current norm.

Nielsen Ratings

Witcher 2734 (+20%; #1)

Emily in Paris 938 (#2)

Hawkeye 938 (+39%; #3)

Wheel of Time 638 (+27%; #7)

Lost in Space 490

Great British Baking Show 256

Jurassic World Camp Cretaceous 211

Marvel's Daredevil 195

Jim Gaffigan: Comedy Monster 186

Money Heist 183

Cobra Kai 2423 (December 31st; #1)

Witcher 1827 (-34%; #4)

Emily in Paris 1110 (+16%; #5)

Wheel of Time 630 (-1%; #9)

Hawkeye 539 (-43%)

Queer Eye 466

Lost in Space 452

Book of Boba Fett 389 (December 29th)

Stay Close 349

Great British Baking Show 338

Cobra Kai 2153 (#1)

Witcher 1105 (#3)

Stay Close 988

Queer Eye 723

Book of Boba Fett 563 (#10)

Emily in Paris 553

Ozark 301

Wheel of Time 300

Lost in Space 291

Great British Baking Show 254

I think we can hitch the brief bump in Wheel of Time viewing to curious Witcher watchers hoping for more of the same (and, indeed, for bad writing that's exactly what they got--the Amazon show has lingered like a bad smell). The Witcher's numbers are plummeting, albeit less than half its audience is still enough to remain in the top-three. I think interest in the prequel will give the best indication of how invested casuals remain, as the hardcore fans have given up. How do we know the second season hasn't done as well? Besides the precipitous drop in viewing, we have indirect evidence for it: no hit song, no massive increase in playing the game on Steam, no big jump in streaming numbers, and no big increase in game or book sales. As for the bump for Hawkeye, it seems to be MCU fans (buoyed by Spider-Man 3, echoing what happened briefly to Daredevil) checking it out before it bottomed off the chart entirely. In terms of genre, The Book of Boba Fett landed like a wet fart, although Star Wars fans are so desperate for something to be good there's room for it to be a 'success' on the small scale of The Mandalorean.

About two years ago I thought the outrage YT sphere ('The Fandom Menace', which has remodeled itself as 'The Fellowship of the Fans') was in trouble because their cash cows, Star Wars and Star Trek, were failing and a declining audience would stimmy growth. This is egg on my face, because while those IP continue to decline, poor management and writing has spread to other genre IP, thus breathing more life into them. In honour of my erroneous prediction, let's look at how this bonanza has rewarded the YTers mentioned then:

• Mr. H Reviews 241k->289k (+48k)
• Nerdrodic 234k->400k (+166k)
• Geeks + Gamers 224k->324k (+100k)
• Midnight's Edge 168k->208k (+40k)
• Overlord DVD 151k->273k (+122k)

The two least effected channels were the two least devoted to the content trap (Mr. H and Midnight's Edge). The 'let's get/stay angry' channels have done far better while diversifying their content. I think Gary (Nerdrodic) has pulled ahead because he's more savvy in picking his guests (people like Chrissie Mayr, MauLer, etc). Midnight's Edge continues to be the most 'serious' channel, but their odd panels don't help views in the same way and they seem to have been frozen out by Nerdrotic--whether this is related to the drama last year I don't know. For some who read my content this is all trivial, but I find popular tastes interesting and there's no denying these creators are popular, beginning to approach the gaudy numbers of corporate friendly Emergency Awesome. In terms of news only Midnight's Edge and (to a much lesser extent) Overlord DVD break stories, with the rest being commentary channels, meaning that for general audiences it's how news is discussed more than the news itself that matters.

This article was written by Peter Levi

MCU News & Notes

The Illuminerdi, which gets its material from Daniel (cf), is reporting that John Krasinski will appear in Doctor Strange 2 as Reed Richards. If accurate it confirms one of the longest running casting rumours there is in Marvel, as he's been fancasted since before I started writing about the MCU. The word is he'll be a multiverse appearance, but Sutton believes public pressure will force Feige to keep him in the role (rather than getting whatever 'brave' bizarre choice MCU's casting directors would thrust upon us). Normally I'd dismiss Sutton's idea, but the MCU brand has suffered enough that Feige might actually yield to that pressure.

Reshoots for films, particularly MCU films and shows, are normal--planned long before principal photography has finished. However, we're seeing a couple of cases of massive reshoots that are worth going over:

• Doctor Strange 2 is getting over thirty days of reshoots (that's roughly a third of the time it takes to shoot a film). According to Daniel, they reshot most or all of the America Chavez scenes while adding more cameos (the latter undoubtedly in response to Spider-Man 3's success). Are the Chavez changes a response to the tepid reaction fans have had to the various introduced characters in Phase Four? It's certainly suggestive, particularly given what's happened to Ms. Marvel (below), but what's less clear is how things are being changed. I have to wonder if, ala Witcher season two, the original film had everyone falling all over themselves to tell Chavez how amazing and brave she was.
• Ms. Marvel wrapped filming almost a year ago (official organs say it wrapped in May, while Kamran Pasha claims it wrapped earlier--the point is it has been awhile); originally the show was intended to have the release date used for Hawkeye, but was given a massive delay in October. Rumours are that the show either tested poorly or that Marvel isn't happy with it, so they are desperately trying to fix it. I'm not sure what you can do to rescue an IP that isn't inherently popular, but particularly when its limited fanbase were already not happy with some of the casting. What the MCU intends isn't clear, but they are trying to do something to fix it as these are not typical reshoots.

What I don't expect is that either IP will magically bring back the quality we expected prior to Phase Four. Instead, what it may do is drag these productions somewhere towards average and, in the case of Doctor Strange 2, that might be enough to drag up the box office (especially if the cameos are particularly notable). Normally Marvel tries to keep cameos under wraps, but given how much letting everyone know about them in Spider-Man 3 helped, I can imagine Feige letting early reviewers 'spoil' those appearances to try and drum up more interest (as he did with Eternals, even though that attempt failed). We also have to keep in mind Blade's filming was pushed back significantly, presumably because its star wasn't happy with whatever low caliber script Stacy Osei-Kuffour had provided [cf].

More Nielsen Ratings:

1. Witcher 2,191 (December 20; 1st overall)
2. Hawkeye 580 (finale December 22; +10%, 4th overall)
3. Lost in Space 569 (-56%, 5th overall)
4. Wheel of Time 467 (finale December 24; -8%; 10th overall)
5. The Great British Baking Show 292
6. Selling Tampa 243
7. Money Heist 231
8. The Queen of Flow 218
9. Jurassic World Camp Cretaceous 215
10. Twentysomethings: Austin 185

As expected, given how big it hit last year, Witcher debuted very strongly (almost double The Wheel of Time's opening), but I'm curious to see what the drop off will be--there's no doubt this season has not been received as well as the first (the impact of that will be felt first by the unwanted prequel Netflix is giving us, Witcher: Blood Origin, which viscerally reminds me both of Wheel of Time and the cancelled Game of Thrones prequel series). Hawkeye received a marginal bump for the finale (the power of Kingpin), but a finale couldn't help Wheel of Time's slide down to oblivion (a fan of the show actually thought it was worse than the Game of Thrones finale--ouch). We can summate viewer retention for both of the latter shows:

• Hawkeye 853->580 (68%)
• The Wheel of Time 1,163->467 (40%)

There was much greater interest in Amazon's fantasy epic initially (albeit far less than generated by The Witcher, which makes sense both because the latter is a more popular IP and it had Henry Cavill as an excellent Geralt), but it had a much harder time retaining that interest (granting that Hawkeye still dropped a third of its audience for what was already the lowest viewed MCU show to date). The general praise I've seen for Hawkeye is "it's not as bad as the other MCU shows" and that people like Steinfeld (not for her performance as Kate Bishop, but just the actress). Damning with faint praise isn't much of an endorsement. On the other side, it's much too early for the media to properly dissect how badly Amazon's fantasy effort failed, but someone at the company must be worrying about their much more expensive Lord of the Rings adaptation--while the latter will have much better production values, if the writing quality is just as bad, it's going to suffer much more than Robert Jordan's mostly forgotten epic.

This article was written by Peter Levi

MCU News & Notes

The most interesting thing to me about Sutton's Marvel scoops were his takes on the X-Men and Wolverine (cf). In both cases he was talking about pretty faithful adaptations of classic stories, something that isn't reflected in Phase Four (which is why I've wondered about wish fulfillment). There are a few possibilities, given that I believe Mikey has sources at Marvel (never a question with Marvel Entertainment or Sony, but for awhile I was uncertain about Marvel Studios): 1) this is an idea that's been kicked around because of how iconic the characters are, but before the clowns running Phase Four got their hands on it (Victoria Alonso etc), 2) the surface details are true, but it's going to have the 'all different' angle like the limp version of Kingpin in Hawkeye, 3) the characters will be handing things off to 'better'/modern characters ala Echo, America Chavez, etc. As far as I know, no one has asked Sutton about this and he may not know. Given the approach in Phase Four, I think the lesson Feige will take away from No Way Home is that if you want to kill the past, you need it initially to get people to watch (even if not many people, ala Hawkeye, see below). Perhaps Feige will plug in some of the old Fox actors to get them to perform the handoff (Hugh Jackman to pass the torch to X-23 perhaps--that seems to be what he was trying to do in 2019 when he talked to both Jackman and Patrick Stewart). In some ways it doesn't matter what he's doing if the writing standards at Marvel remain low. For my part, the X-Men were my favourite and I don't want the MCU to tackle them until they've corrected course (if they ever do).

Nielsen ratings for streaming are out for the end of November and first two weeks of December:

1. True Story (Nov.24) 943 (2nd overall behind Red Notice)
2. Hawkeye (Nov.24) 853
3. The Wheel of Time (episodic) 663 (-43%; 6th overall)
4. Cowboy Bebop (Nov.19) 629 (+52%; cancelled before completion)
5. The Great British Baking Show (episodic) 584 (+14%)
6. Selling Sunset (Nov.24) 549
7. The Beatles: Get Back (Nov.25) 503
8. The Queen of Flow (episodic) 480
9. Tiger King (Nov.17) 479 (-30%)
10. Hanna (Nov.24) 372

Then:

1. Lost in Space (Dec.1) 1207 (1st overall; slightly bigger opening than WoT)
2. True Story (Nov.24) 607 (-35%)
3. Hawkeye (Nov.24) 560 (-34%; 6th overall)
4. The Wheel of Time (Nov.19) 537 (-19%; 8th overall)
5. Selling Sunset (Nov.24) 440 (-20%)
6. The Great British Baking Show (episodic) 426 (-27%)
7. The Beatles: Get Back (episodic) 408 (-19%)
8. The Queen of Flow (episodic) 377 (-21%)
9. School of Chocolate (Nov.26) 376
10. Money Heist (December 3) 374

Then:

1. Lost in Space 1,018 (-16%; 1st overall)
2. Hawkeye 527 (-6%; 6th overall)
3. The Wheel of Time 509 (-5%; 7th overall)
4. Money Heist 426 (+14%)
5. Jurassic World Camp Cretaceous (Dec.3) 337
6. The Great British Baking Show 324 (-24%)
7. The Queen of Flow 324 (-14%)
8. Selling Sunset 278 (-37%)
9. True Story 255 (-58%)
10. Cowboy Bebop 218 (change unclear)

Things to note: more people tuned in for Kevin Hart's True Story than the premiere of Hawkeye; Hawkeye landed with 73% of the interest of Wheel of Time's premiere and then promptly lost a third of its audience (it's opener had the lowest rated MCU D+ opening); as for WoT, the clunky Amazon show tanked hard in its second week, proceeding to lose almost another fifth of its audience in its third week (so more than half the initial audience gave up on it). Funnily enough, Cowboy Bebop, which opened poorly, saw a significant increase in consumption in its second week, but along with cancellation tanked afterwards. It's important to point out that unlike the Netflix shows, which dump all their episodes at once, both Amazon and Disney+ are episodic--this means drops in viewership are not related to people having binged and moved on, but rather audiences failing to retain interest (you can make the Lost in Space-Wheel of Time comparison very easily, where the binged LiS barely lost its audience in the second week, while the episodic WoT lost almost half).

The reason relying on hard data like this is important is because of how disparate anecdotal evidence can be. Most of the people I know who watched Wheel of Time enjoyed it (despite its many, many issues)--think of how skewed that could make my perspective. It's the same case for Witcher season two, which has at least as many issues as the first--the people I know who watched it, enjoyed it, but it simply hasn't performed like it did previously (no massive spike in players on Steam, no hit song, no huge upswell in streaming numbers on Twitch, etc).

One of the strangest trends in the outrage sphere is claiming cultural Marxism is part of Hollywood decision making--what? Andre thinks subverting expectations is inherently Marxist--I don't know what to say to that, but if Wikipedia can be trusted, this idea seems derived from Jordan Peterson re-injecting it into popular discourse (eg). What's baffling about it is why they think mega corporations have these sympathies (they are, by definition, pro-Capitalist). Most of the outrage YTers are loosely Libertarian (as much as they have any political ideology), but I don't think this sudden by-rote sentiment emerged spontaneously. They are responding to a trend that plays well with their audience, but what is it? I think it reflects BreadTubers who identify as Marxists and Communists (not an identity they take seriously, just using it as a cudgel to attack opponents--Hasan Piker et al). I think because the influencers attack the audience for the outragers (broadly older white men), it's useful to attack in turn using the same terminology. This is admittedly trivial, but as someone who has paid attention to this collection of eccentrics and grifters for years, I was initially baffled to suddenly hear anti-communist and Marxism remarks.

While we are touching on the Orwellian madness of the current era, I'd be remise if I didn't mention current events. Let me preface it with something most people don't remember: Wil Wheaton nuking himself from Twitter when they refused to ban Alex Jones, then getting booted from the lefty alternative Mastodon (cf)--he just wasn't quite pure enough to stay. Why am I bringing up Wheaton, who continues happily posting on Facebook? Because he is one of many canaries in the coalmine--if you are going to play the cancel culture game, it's just a matter of time before the mob comes for you. Patton Oswald did not realize taking a picture with his friend Dave Chappelle would threaten his career, but his hilarious apology failed to stop the criticism. Lindsay Ellis, on the other hand, cancelled herself rather than deal with attacks. I'd normally have a lot of sympathy for both, but they have participated in witch hunts like this, so I see it as karma. For fans of either, both will be fine--it's extremely rare for 1%ers to get cancelled--Oswald's career won't be hurt and Ellis will re-emerge to make more long form video essays. All we can hope for is that, unlike Wheaton, perhaps one of them will learn from this experience and be less eager to join the next cancel mob. What's insufferable about these people (including the YT outragers above), is almost none of them actual do anything to push for fundamental change--they aren't out in the streets pushing an agenda--it's all just theater (profitable theater).

This article was written by Peter Levi

MCU News & Notes

One of the great myths of post-pandemic releases is that films have performed below expectations because of it. Unfortunately for proponents of this theory, Spider-Man 3 (released amidst fears of the omicron variant) has blown it out of the water. The film is performing exactly like a normal, pre-pandemic big budget release, which lends credence to my belief that the general underwhelming box office is due to the poor quality of 2021 releases. Spider-Man 3 is already the best performing film of the year, so what has it brought to the table that others haven't? A mix of things: respectful nostalgia (possibly to be imitated by other IP--ala Michael Keaton returning as Batman--rather than subverting expectations ala The Last Jedi, the two recent Terminator films, Ghostbusters 2016, etc), avoiding politics in its marketing, not attacking the fanbase, and (at least anecdotally) being a competent film (MauLer gave it the same score as The Suicide Squad, 5/10, but I have yet to see it myself). Admittedly, the movie is in a unique position in being able to interconnect two prior film franchises, but to do so without pissing off those fans is incredibly rare (ie the mishandled Witcher). Respecting fans isn't enough, as can be seen with Bill & Ted Face the Music and Ghostbusters: Afterlife, but it's the most obvious way to keep the core audience happy and buying merch. The industry's hackneyed writing is letting audiences down, but I doubt Spidey's success means immediate relief is in sight.

Spoilers ahead: I haven't been watching Hawkeye, but I did hear that Kate Bishop and Echo both defeated the Kingpin in their first encounter, which is a painful waste of the character--you have to build villains up before you defeat them (Daredevil season one spent twelve episodes establishing how tough he was before the final confrontation; Thanos wins in Infinity War before he's defeated; etc), but the opportunity is now squandered. When tertiary characters can beat the Kingpin in their first encounter, his potency as a villain is undercut. I also heard that they re-wrote the purpose of Black Widow's sacrifice in Endgame (rather than saving Barton and his family, it's for...Yelena?), which hurts that film even more (Phase Four has been shitting all over the ending of Phase Three). It's this kind of thing--poorly conceived and executed storytelling--that has driven me largely out of the MCU.

I've steered clear of watching The Wheel of Time, as everything I've read and heard reinforces that I wouldn't enjoy it. The second season is already filming (or has completed filming), so like the forgotten Shannara series, more is to come, but I believe the IP is doomed--not only is it dwarfed by The Witcher in general interest, but there's no secondary resonance with merchandise (unlike with Dune or Witcher, or in the past with Game of Thrones--Robert Jordan's series continues to collect dust on the shelves).

Speaking of The Witcher, I've tried watching season two and, as expected, the terrible writing from season one continues. It's even poorer than the previous season--Lauren Hissrich has Neil Breen's understanding of story/character coherence. The show went out of its way to piss off pre-existing fans with a bizarre and nonsensical portrayal of Eskel, in addition to confused iterations of Lambert and Vesemir (what accent Kim Bodnia is attempting I have no idea, but I want him to stop). What really matters for The Witcher is how casuals receive it and that's not yet clear--the anecdotal evidence is trickling in and hard numbers are far away, but I think this season will Last Jedi-away original fans of the IP (the usual YT suspects, like xLetalis, all agree the first episode is the best and that the season as a whole is disappointing). The only positive from the Netflix adaptation is that it's introduced new people to the IP and while I think Sapkowski's books are a mixed bag (just like Stephen King, his older stuff is better), having a chance to experience the games for the first time is well worth it for those who take the plunge.

Speaking of hard numbers, public Nielsen ratings from mid-November (15th-21st) are finally available and illustrate that the appetite for fantasy is strong even when the offerings are weak (the number is minutes watched):

1. Wheel of Time (Nov.19) 1,163 (2nd overall behind Red Notice)
2. Tiger King (Nov.17) 685
3. Great British Baking Show (Nov.19) 513
4. You (Oct.15) 489
5. Narcos: Mexico (Nov.5) 428
6. Cowboy Beebop (Nov.19) 414 (cancelled before its run completed)
7. Big Mouth (Nov.5) 319
8. Maid (Oct.1) 302
9. Locke & Key (Oct.22) 293
10. Hellbound (Nov.19) 272

We are reliant on Nielsen and quarterly reports because the various streaming services routinely lie about their numbers otherwise. Hawkeye had not yet premiered so it can't be directly compared. It's almost sad how desperate fans are for something to fill The Game of Thrones void.

We can, briefly, talk about Parrot Analytics, which uses a Byzantine system to try to assess overall impact by measuring available data (social media, pirating, etc), but they don't explain how they weight their data, making their results difficult assess--you can see how it varies from places like Reelgood in terms of rankings (the PA numbers are here for December last week, while RG is this week--it's not perfect, but the best I could do):

1. Spongbob (PA), Hawkeye (RG)
2. South Park (PA), The Witcher (RG)
3. SNL (PA) The Grinch (RG)
4. My Hero Academia (PA) Yellowstone (RG)
5. The Wheel of Time (PA) Elf (RG)
6. Game of Thrones (PA) Spider-Man 2002 (RG)
7. The Flash (PA) The Wheel of Time (RG)
8. Sesame Street (PA) Die Hard (RG)
9. Hawkeye (PA) The Unforgiveable (RG)
10. The Walking Dead (PA) Station Eleven (RG)

Reelgood's trending TV shows has a completely different order, which is a little hard to parse with the above. According to PA, the US ranking is quite different from worldwide:

1. The Wheel of Time
2. Hawkeye
3. Arcane
4. The Witcher
5. The Mandalorian
6. Titans
7. Stranger Things
8. Cobra Kai
9. La Casa De Pape
10. Ted Lasso

There are some oddities here too given PA's list above, but with regional bias it's a bit more understandable. Nielsen's hard numbers are a full month behind, making it difficult to assess these. When you cut out the movies and reruns, the two agree that (in different order) Hawkeye, The Witcher, and The Wheel of Time are (or were) near the top of new streaming shows. Whether any will have legs once they are over remains to be seen (I doubt it).

Beyond that, I thought it was interesting to look at how PA sees the top-20 streaming shows of 2021 (despite posting it ten days before the year was over):

1. Stranger Things
2. The Mandalorian
3. WandaVision
4. Cobra Kai
5. Titans
6. Ted Lasso
7. Star Wars: The Clone Wars
8. Lucifer
9. The Witcher
10. The Handmaid's Tale
11. The Expanse
12. Falcon and the Winter Soldier
13. The Boys
14. Loki
15. Star Trek: Discovery
16. You
17. Animaniacs
18. Money Heist
19. Harley Quinn
20. Doom Patrol

Broadly speaking the list seems fine, but there are some oddities (Titans at #5? Loki behind Falcon? Anyone watching Discovery?). The fact that Hawkeye and other recent releases aren't here isn't a big deal--they don't have months to collect views like shows released earlier. Valid or not, it's interesting and something to look back on in the future.

One trend that's continues is a persistent interest in Norse-inspired productions. Historical shows/films aren't unusual, but the focus on Vikings isn't typically this prominent--beginning back, at least, to the History channel's Vikings in 2013. It seems antipodal to current trends given the focus/casting. We're getting a feature film in this milieu with The Northman in April, which may or may not be good, but how it performs will be interesting to watch. I feel like at least some of this sustained production is because of how closely it echoes fantasy narratives and the (unsatisfied) appetite that exists for them.

This article was written by Peter Levi

MCU News & Notes

For over a year now deleted social media posts from Phase Four figures have come back to haunt them and an old Tweet from Michael Waldron is the latest. I don't think this will impact Waldron at all (just as it hasn't Bisha K. Ali, Simu Liu, and others), but if there are changes coming to the MCU, it could serve as a convenient way to get rid of him. Do I think Waldron should be cancelled? Of course not, but his writing alone is reason enough not to retain his services.

Hawkeye continues to flounder (Charlie has not stopped using anything other than the main characters to flog videos about it). I have no idea what this means, if anything, for either it or the character's future (and by character I mean Kate Bishop, as it's her show). As I mentioned last time, I don't know what the MCU will do to try to win back the fans it is bleeding out. When Star Wars went through this process a few years ago it hit the nostalgia needle like a heroin addict, so that might be what's in store 2-3 years from now (by that I mean a return of actors from the past--whether superficially or prominently I don't know--rumour has it Bob Chapek wants Robert Downy Jr. back as Iron Man).

Recently Henry Cavill said he'd love to play Captain Britain and plenty of people jumped on that to say it's a signal that he will be (Orlando Bloom said much the same years ago and he's not the only British actor to do so). We've known for certain since Endgame that the character has been in the MCU's plans and plenty of scoopers have echoed the sentiment. As for Cavill himself, here's the timeline of rumours while I was tracking them:

• September, 2019 - 4chan said he'd met with Feige about a potential role
• September, 2019 - Sutton said Feige is considering him for a role
• January, 2021 - Daniel reported a rumour that he was being considered for Captain Britain
• March, 2021 - Daniel reported a rumour that Cavill had reached out to Feige about a role
• March, 2021 - Sutton says he's who Feige wants for the role
• May, 2021 - Daniel reported a rumour that Cavill was in talks for either Hercules or Captain Britain

June was when I stopped systematically tracking these things, but in looking now there's been nothing new about the subject from Daniel, Sutton, or Murphy. Cavill won't come cheap and certainly doesn't fit the casting mold Phase Four is pushing, but the MCU actually needs buzz for the first time in a long time, so maybe they'd push for him (we know penny-pinching by WB is part of the reason he's in limbo as Superman--if J. J. Abrams' black Superman goes forward as expected, having Cavill as well could be too confusing--considering there's nothing in production including him, I think his time there is done). Cavill would be an excellent choice, but he needs good writing or this would be the same train wreck as everything else in Phase Four.

Excluding Chinese releases, I wanted to look at the top 2021 films, including the split between foreign and domestic (US) gross; those still meaningfully in theaters are in green (estimated budgets are also included and those that have definitively lost money are in red; I've italicized films that have underperformed given their budget/expectations--broadly those which are well under 50% more than their budget).

• 1. No Time to Die (Universal/Oct/450k) - 765k (79.1/20.9)
• 2. The Fast Saga (Universal/June/300k) - 726k (76.2/23.8)
• 3. Venom 2 (Sony/Oct/165k) - 483k (56.3/43.7)
• 4. Godzilla vs Kong (WB/March/300k) - 467k (78.5/21.5)
• 5. Shang-Chi (Disney/Sept/300k) - 431k (48/52)
• 6. Eternals (Disney/Nov/300k) - 395k (59.2/40.8)
• 7. Dune (WB/Oct/250k) - 389k (72.6/27.4)
• 8. Black Widow (Disney/July/300k) - 379k (51.6/48.4) - plus 125k from Disney+ (504k)
• 9. Free Guy (Fox/Aug/180k) - 331k (63.3/36.7)
• 10. A Quiet Place 2 (Paramount/May/90k) - 297k (46.2/53.8)
• 11. Cruella (Disney/May/150k) - 233k (63.1/36.9)
• 12. Jungle Cruise (Disney/July/300k) - 220k (47/53)
• 13. The Conjuring 3 (WB/June/60k) - 201k (67.5/32.5)
• 14. The Suicide Squad (WB/Aug/275k) - 167k (66.7/33.3)
• 17. Ghostbusters (Sony/Nov/115k) - 164k (29.3/70.7)
• 15. Space Jam 2 (WB/July/225k) - 162k (56.7/43.3)
• 16. Peter Rabbit 2 (Sony/June/65k) - 153k (73.8/26.2)
• 18. The Boss Baby (Universal/July/120k) - 142k (59.8/40.2)
• 19. Tom and Jerry (WB/Feb/120k) - 132k (65.3/34.7)
• 20. Halloween Kills (Universal/Oct/30k) - 131k (30.1/69.9)

I'm dubious that any of these films are good, although several might be mediocre (the praise for Dune seems very similar to what the Snyder Cut received, making me very suspicious of it). What is clear is how dependent studios are on franchises, reboots, and sequels, as Free Guy is the only film in the top-20 that doesn't fall into one of those categories. I think this is both due to studios being risk adverse and their desire to follow trends. One thing I think we can all agree on is that writing for projects released during the pandemic has been subpar and there's no change in sight (look at Cowboy Bebop). The other thing that's obvious is how high production budgets are for many of these films--this guarantees (or should) a quality spectacle, but that's largely failed to draw crowds. It's also apparent how soft the US domestic market is, as even films that couldn't air in China lean on foreign box office. Films are largely aimed at the domestic audience, but that strategy can't continue if this doesn't change. I don't expect Hollywood to accept this as permanent until more time has passed. The above is a good illustration that stars (Dwayne Johnson) don't guarantee success anymore than hot directors do (James Gunn), and absurd budgets for both cost both WB and Disney.

Another figure who was briefly in this space departed months ago. Andy Signore gave up on scoops and genre film earlier this year, which has proven beneficial to his channel. Andy's limp opinions weren't unique, so there was no space for him to make an impact (I remember him mostly for his combative response to any who questioned him). This blandness is the Achilles heel of scoopers past and present--they are terrified to say anything negative for fear of losing access, so their opinions are bland--everything is amazing and brave and could we have more pretty please? There's some reflection of this in the analysis/outrage sphere (praise for the Snyder Cut is pure pandering), but it's somewhat muted by the focus of their channels.

This article was written by Peter Levi

MCU News & Notes

Changes within Disney could signal changes in the MCU, but in what way and to what degree is less clear. Ideologue Victoria Alonso, who has been campaigning against the use of the term 'X-Men' for years (based on third wave ideas that it's exclusionary--echoing the late 80s/early 90s push to change 'fireman' to 'fireperson' etc), has been promoted away from development, limiting her impact on Marvel. Being an ideologue isn't inherently nefarious--Edward Snowden is an example of the positive side--but it hasn't resulted in quality entertainment. Susan Arnold, whose past (much like CEO Bob Chapek) is in finance, has become the new Chairman in 2022, and some believe that background will make her less ideologically motivated (while others argue the fact that she's a lesbian means full steam ahead, as if everyone in the LGBT community functions via groupthink). We've also seen unprecedented criticism of the MCU allowed from those who made it successful in the first place (the Russo brothers in particular), which either signals change or that the duo are never coming back. What kind of changes are coming? I have no idea. Some speculate Feige himself is on the way out, although that's hard to imagine. Could Marvel move back to being fan-friendly? On the comic side that seems impossible, but there's time for the MCU to recoup its loses--Phase Four is easily jettisoned, but I wouldn't expect any major changes soon.

One of the reasons these moves are happening at Disney is illustrated by 2021's box office--MCU films haven't performed as expected. A weak James Bond film and middling Fast Nine installment crossed 700k, so that's where Marvel films ought to be--competing at the top. Instead, the MCU and Sony's independent effort are close to 40% lower than that number--a failure by any measure. The Disney+ shows have also failed--they ought to be among the top streaming shows, but they trail them considerably and we're at the point where their low quality is impacting new releases (Hawkeye, see below). At some point Disney has to start hitting the targets expected by investors. It's not clear to me what that will mean in terms of specific changes, since garbage can still sell, but this garbage clearly isn't cutting it.

We know Disney has experienced a significant slowdown for Disney+ (missing their quarterly goal by 80%). The streaming service isn't just Marvel, but in terms of original content they are expected to lead. I don't think changes, whatever they are, will come in time to fix shows already in progress. Positive signs I'm looking for are removal of people like Mark Waldron and Jac Schaeffer from their projects, and perhaps cancelling unwanted fair like the Agatha Harkness show. Hawkeye's opener underperformed, falling behind all the previous MCU shows, making it clear that the interest in Phase Four is continuing to drop (a good indicator of this is looking at reactor views for it in comparison to prior MCU shows).

I was reminiscing over various figures in the fandom in my last post and there's an interesting comparison we can make to notables currently in the field. Mikey Sutton, who started his public push for exposure back in 2019 (with Lords of the Long Box, Pete's Basement, Matt Jarbo, etc) remains a marginal figure in the fandom, as demonstrated by his impact on viewership (look at the indifference his scoops are met with on Midnight's Edge, for instance). Sutton, as a former (music) journalist and a man with plenty of people pushing his work, hasn't achieved the market penetration he desires (he'd be better off in roundtable formats--Shadiversity has made this conclusion and is doing so on Knights Watch). On the flipside, Kamran Pasha burst into the space months ago and is now a byword to boosting shows within the community. While this is confined to the outrage sphere, it's launched his reputation in the fandom to a place where he's actively sought after for his commentary. Sutton remains a scooper with a smaller presence than the irritating Charles Murphy. Daniel and Murphy are on the opposite side of the political spectrum from Pasha (while all three support diversity, the latter is otherwise conservative), entertainment lefties don't impact YT much (there's not much space for them since big channels already fill that niche), making them dependent on Patreon/being reflected in the wider fandom. These popularity restrictions are the main reason why I think both Daniel and Murphy object so strongly to Sutton (even though he shares their ideology), as he directly challenges their pocketbooks (they opposed Jeremy Conrad/Manabyte for the same reason). Incidentally, while writing this I noticed that Jarbo has gone back to his dying 3 Buck Theater channel with Sutton scoops, so Mikey is returning to that relationship (god knows why--for Jarbo this seems part of his never ending feud with Doomcock, but I don't know what Sutton gets out of it--there's no audience to be gained from Jarbo, although it's interesting that the latter's colourful past doesn't concern him). The issue for Sutton is making any waves at all can crush him like it did Jeremy Conrad, but towing the line makes it impossible for him to standout from people offering the exact same material. Pasha comes at it from the other side of the equation, so by default he makes waves and brings with him the background in the industry to give him credibility, thus (in my opinion) the difference in their impacts. Btw, just for fun, here are current Patreon/YT numbers:

RPK 561/c.$2,000

Ethan Van Scriver (YT 146k) 516/c.$1,500

Doomcock (YT 272k) 450/c.$1,500

MauLer (YT 382k) 429/$2,064

Charles Murphy 308/$1,276

Nerdrodic (376k) 181/$792

Kamran Pasha 150/c.$950

Midnight's Edge (YT 205k) 89/$274

Syl Abdul (YT 2k) 15/$30

Matt Jarbo (YT 32k) 12/c.$35

Small Screen (YT 1k) 4/$57

Patreon doesn't mean much to live streamers (because of superchats), which is largely what Gary, MauLer, and Andre lean on, but it's most of the income RPK and Murphy gain through doing this (Charles has a real job, so this is all just gravy for him, but I believe RPK makes his living doing this). I don't pay attention to Scriver and rarely encounter Doomcock, but they are all part of the same ecosystem.

One of the reasons I stopped covering these curmudgeons (scoopers) is because fans don't seem to care how accurate they are. From what I can tell, this is reflected in all fandoms, where what people are looking for are things to get excited/mad about, with the validity being largely meaningless. I couldn't tell you why that's the case, but it became more and more apparent as time went on. Promoting a scoop is less about how real it is and more about how sensational it is (for whatever audience you target). Think of it like sports commentary--this fighter is better than that fighter, this player is better than that player--no one cares if the commentator is right, but focus on the debate itself. Given that, the amount of labour required to track all of it, and the fact that the MCU's output has turned to dreck I decided to walk away.

To dovetail back to Alonso and the culture war, it will be interesting to see if small steps like the media giving up on "Latinex" (since the Latino community hates the term) is a sign of a return to sanity, or if it's an irrelevant pause in the madness. Given that identity politics is a top down movement (rather than grass roots), it's difficult to say what will or won't change. The argument that underlying economics could shift things has some merit (China saying 'no' has an immediate impact; there's a rather desperate attempt to make India take its place, but the latter has its own vibrant entertainment industry so I don't think that's an easy transition), but how much and in what way is unclear to me. We can see how meaningless this all is in terms of direct political action in the US, where the elite are happy to allow abortion laws to return to the Stone Age so long as they get what they want in film and television.

A friend of mine has been trying to get me to watch The Wheel of Time despite me telling him that nothing I saw about the production, casting, or showrunner were positives. I have now seen/read some reviews and they seem to validate my expectations (I should note that despite losing to Hawkeye on Trends, it had more viewers for the premiere episode--as I've always said, Trends is just an indicator). Will I torture myself with an episode or two? Time will tell, but it's no surprise that Amazon Prime would take classic, epic fantasy, and ignore it to create generic modern television. I'm not the target for this material anyway, as I expect adaptations to adapt the material as faithfully as possible (ala Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, and the early seasons of Game of Thrones) and no one in the business wants to do that anymore (you are welcome to enjoy it, but I do not--that approach works best for those unfamiliar with the IP). This reaction is different from my ignoring Dune, which I did because I've seen the IP adapted twice already (1984 and 2000) and made a firm commitment to avoid anything featuring Zendaya (Spider-Man excluded) for the sake of my own sanity--she clearly attended the Gal Gadot school of acting and her publicist has made her insufferably impossible to avoid (for the love of god get her off my Twitter feed).

Back to The Wheel of Time: keep in mind season two is happening regardless of the response and that's inevitable because fantasy shows are so expensive to produce (the unwatchable Shannara series got three seasons). I am curious, when the dust settles, to see the numbers and hear what (internally) the reaction within Amazon is to the response. We all know Jeff Bezos respects one thing and one thing only: profits.

This article was written by Peter Levi